Abstract:

Acording to grey-system theory, two forceasting models(Grey-Model of disaster change) of forest fire's high risk age and forest fire's Mass Hazards Age were founded, which were based on the systematic analysis of the forest fire disciplinary occur in Daxingan Mountain forestry of Inner Mongolia. The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level, its expand modulus(-a) was less than 0.3. So the two models could be used as medium term or long term forecasting on the Daxingan Mountain forestry's disaster changes. The results showed that there will be three are three high risk fire years and five heave risk years during 2001 to 2010. Their lagging time will be 2 to 3 years, which precisions were higher than 98%. 2007 will be the Forest Fire's High Risk Age and the Forest Fire's Mass Hazards Age, with precisions of 98.05% and 99.78%.

Key words: Grey-system, Forest fire, Forecasting model, Daxinglan Mountain