关键词: 农村电子商务发展, 共同富裕, 收入差距, 双重机器学习模型

Abstract:

Objective: In the process of realizing a Chinese-style modernization with shared prosperity for all citizens, this study examines the impact and mechanisms of rural e-commerce development on income gap and shared prosperity in forested areas. It aims to provide valuable insights for reducing income gap within rural communities, achieving an organic unity of efficiency and equity, and promoting shared prosperity. Method: The study treats the“comprehensive demonstration policy of e-commerce into rural areas”as a quasi-natural experiment for the development of rural e-commerce and utilizes five waves of panel data from the China family panel studies (CFPS) spanning from 2012 to 2020. It employs a supervised double machine learning method to analyze the impact and mechanisms of rural e-commerce development on both the macro-level village-level intra-regional income gap among all forest farmer households within each forested village and the micro-level intra-regional income gap among individual forest farmer households within each village, which can help to answer the question of how rural e-commerce development contributes to shared prosperity. Result: 1) Rural e-commerce development significantly reduces the gini coefficient of annual income for all forest farmer households within each forested villages and the relative deprivation index among individual forest farmer households within each forested village, implying that rural e-commerce can effectively lower income gap within forested areas. These results remain robust after a series of sensitivity tests. 2) The reduction of income gap within forested areas due to rural e-commerce development is primarily achieved by substantially increasing the income of low-income forest farmer households that below the 40th percentile and below the mean income, thereby promoting shared prosperity. 3) The promotion of non-agricultural employment among forest farmer households, the enhancement of entrepreneurial activities among forest farmer households, and the increase in the value of agricultural products are the primary pathways through which rural e-commerce development reduces income gap within forested areas. 4) Rural e-commerce development has a greater income-increasing effect on forest farmer households with low skill levels, low social capital, and below the poverty line, indicating its inclusive characteristic. Conclusion: Through an empirical study with a large micro-database, the balancing effect between equity and efficiency demonstrated by rural e-commerce as an important manifestation of the digital economy in rural forest areas is verified. Under the wave of digital economy development, this study not only provides new empirical evidence of rural e-commerce in narrowing the internal income gap in forest areas, but also provides important policy insights for promoting common prosperity.

Key words: rural e-commerce development, shared prosperity, income gap, double machine learning