林业科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (6): 95-109.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20220610
张宇凡1,2,党英侨1,王小艺1,*
收稿日期:
2021-04-01
出版日期:
2022-06-25
发布日期:
2022-09-24
通讯作者:
王小艺
基金资助:
Yufan Zhang1,2,Yingqiao Dang1,Xiaoyi Wang1,*
Received:
2021-04-01
Online:
2022-06-25
Published:
2022-09-24
Contact:
Xiaoyi Wang
摘要:
目的: 明确不同喜食程度的寄主植物对栗山天牛局部成灾和未分布区扩散定殖的潜在影响,为局部成灾区生态防控和未发生区早期预警提供理论指导。方法: 通过文献整理、数据库检索与实地调查,获得我国137个栗山天牛分布点。利用ArcGIS 10.0从WorldClim下载1970—2000年的19个环境变量,从中筛选出相关系数 < ∣0.9∣且对栗山天牛潜在分布概率贡献率较大的8个气候变量,将其转换为Maxent需要的ASCII格式数据。通过数据库检索和进一步筛选获得我国2 548个栗山天牛寄主分布点,基于该虫对我国各县分布的寄主树种的喜食程度,对栗山天牛在每个县内的适生程度进行赋值,并采用ArcGIS获得寄主树种风险图的ASCII格式数据。在Maxent模型中依次导入栗山天牛分布点和环境变量文件、栗山天牛分布点和寄主树种风险图文件,分别将重复运行10次的平均结果作为仅基于气候因素或寄主分布的栗山天牛潜在适生区。采用ArcGIS将以上2个潜在适生区进行叠加获得同时考虑寄主和气候因素的栗山天牛潜在适生区,并通过实际调查点检验所有预测结果的准确性。3个潜在适生区均根据适宜指数分为4类,即非适生区、低适生区、中适生区和高适生区,计算3个适生区预测结果中的4个适生等级的面积并作图。结果: 在当前气候条件下,栗山天牛的高适生区集中在吉林、辽宁、北京、河北、天津和浙江北部,适生区范围未包含在云南省实际调查中所获得的分布点。在当前寄主分布情况下,栗山天牛对我国南北地区的寄主种类在喜食程度上存在显著差异,北部地区分布易感树种蒙古栎和辽东栎,该虫表现为高度适生性,而在南部地区分布其他次要偏嗜危害的寄主种类,该虫表现为中度适生性和低度适生性。同时考虑气候和寄主因素预测出的适生区更符合栗山天牛现有分布情况,即适生区涵盖了该虫的所有实际调查分布点。除青海、新疆以外的中国大部分区域均为栗山天牛的适生区,适生区总面积相对于气候或寄主单一因素预测的面积有所增加,其中低、中适生区范围扩大,高适生区范围缩小。结论: 寄主种类和分布是影响栗山天牛适生等级的重要生态因素,适宜的寄主植物和气候是栗山天牛在东北林区局部成灾的主要生态原因,同时该虫在我国的未分布地区均存在扩散和定殖风险。
中图分类号:
张宇凡,党英侨,王小艺. 基于气候和寄主因素的栗山天牛中国成灾和扩散风险评估[J]. 林业科学, 2022, 58(6): 95-109.
Yufan Zhang,Yingqiao Dang,Xiaoyi Wang. Risk Analysis of Dispersal and Outbreak of Massicus raddei (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China Based on Climate and Host Distribution[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2022, 58(6): 95-109.
表1
栗山天牛中国境内分布和危害情况"
分布和危害情况 Distribution and infestation conditions | 省级行政区 Provincial administrative districts | 分布点数量 Number of distributional points |
成灾地区 Outbreak regions | 辽宁东部、吉林中部 Eastern Liaoning, central Jilin | 65 |
未分布地区 Distribution-free regions | 贵州、广东、宁夏、甘肃、青海、西藏、新疆 Guizhou, Guangdong, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang | 0 |
分布不成灾地区 Distribution regions without outbreaks | 其他行政区 Other administrative districts | 72(含8个实际调查分布点) 72 (Including 8 points from field surveys) |
表2
影响栗山天牛分布的环境变量贡献率和累积贡献率"
环境变量 Environmental variables | 贡献百分率 Percent contribution(%) | 累计贡献百分率 Accumulated percent contribution(%) |
最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month, bio13 | 22.6 | 22.6 |
年均降水量Annual mean precipitation, bio12 | 19.6 | 42.2 |
年平均温度Annual mean temperature, bio01 | 16.9 | 59.1 |
等温性Isothermality, bio03 | 13.4 | 72.5 |
温度季节变化Temperature seasonality, bio04 | 9.8 | 82.3 |
平均日较差Mean diurnal range, bio02 | 8.7 | 91.0 |
降水量变异系数Precipitation seasonality, bio15 | 6.3 | 97.3 |
最暖月最高温Max temperature of warmest month, bio05 | 2.7 | 100.0 |
表3
仅考虑气候因素的栗山天牛中国适生区①"
地区Regions | 高适生区High suitable regions | 中适生区Moderate suitable regions | 低适生区Low suitable regions | 非适生区Unsuitable regions |
黑龙江 Heilongjiang | 东南部少量地区Small southeastern areas | 北部、东部 North, east | 北部、中部、东部 North, central, east | 剩余地区 Other areas |
吉林Jilin | 中部大多地区Most central parts | 中部、东部Central, east | 东部、西部East, west | 东部少量地区Small eastern areas |
辽宁 Liaoning | 全域大多区域 Most parts | 西部少量地区(与内蒙古接壤处) Small western areas (adjacent to Inner Mongolia) | 西部少量地区(与内蒙古接壤处) Small western areas (adjacent to Inner Mongolia) | 西部少量区域(与内蒙古接壤处) Small western areas (adjacent to Inner Mongolia) |
内蒙古 Inner Mongolia | — | — | 东部局部地区(与辽宁和黑龙江接壤处) Eastern parts (adjacent to Liaoning and Heilongjiang) | 全域多地 Many areas |
北京Beijing | 北部、西南部North, southwest | 南部South | — | — |
天津Tianjin | 北部少量地区Small northern areas | 全域多地Many areas | 西南部少量地区Small southwestern areas | — |
河北Hebei | 东北部Northeast | 西南部少量地区Small southwestern areas | 南部、西北部South, northwest | 中部、西北部Central, northwest |
山西 Shanxi | 东部少量地区(与河北接壤处) Small eastern areas (adjacent to Hebei) | 东南部 Southeast | 中部、南部 Central, south | 北部 North |
山东Shandong | 东北部Northeast | 全域多地Many areas | 西部West | — |
陕西Shaanxi | — | 南部South | 中部大多地区Most central parts | 北部North |
河南Henan | — | 西南部Southwest | 剩余地区Other areas | — |
安徽 Anhui | — | 中部 Central | 全域多地 Many areas | 南部少量地区(与江西接壤处) Small southern areas (adjacent to Jiangxi) |
江苏 Jiangsu | — | 全域多地 Many areas | 南部少量地区(与安徽接壤处) Small southern areas (adjacent to Anhui) | — |
上海Shanghai | — | 全域All ranges | — | — |
浙江Zhejiang | 北部North | 北部North | 中部、南部Central, south | 南部South |
湖北Hubei | — | 西部West | 东部East | — |
重庆Chongqing | — | 西南部Southwest | 剩余地区Other areas | — |
四川Sichuan | — | 东南部少量地区Small southeastern areas | 中部、东部Central, east | 西部West |
贵州Guizhou | — | 东北部少量地区Small northeastern areas | 中部、东部Central, east | 西部West |
湖南 Hunan | 中部少量地区 Small central areas | 全域多地 Many areas | 东北部、东南部 Northeast, southeast | 东南部(与江西和广东接壤处) Southeast (adjacent to Jiangxi and Guangdong) |
江西Jiangxi | — | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
福建Fujian | — | 东南部(南海沿线) Southeast (adjacent to the South China Sea) | 全域多地 Many areas | 中部 Central |
云南Yunnan | — | — | 西部和中部少量地区 Small western and central areas | 全域多地Many areas |
广西Guangxi | — | 北部少量地区Small northern areas | 南部、北部South, north | 中部Central |
广东Guangdong | — | — | 南部、北部South, north | 全域多地Many areas |
香港Hong Kong | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
澳门Macao | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
海南Hainan | — | — | 西部West | 中部、东部Central, east |
台湾Taiwan | — | 北部少量地区Small northern areas | 中部、南部Central, south | 中部、南部Central, south |
宁夏Ningxia | — | — | 南部少量地区Small southern areas | 全域多地Many areas |
青海Qinghai | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
甘肃Gansu | — | — | 东部(与陕西接壤处)East (adjacent to Shaanxi) | 全域多地Many areas |
西藏 Tibet | — | — | 东南部少量地区(与云南接壤处) Small southeastern areas (adjacent to Yunnan) | 全域多地 Many areas |
新疆Xinjiang | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
表4
仅考虑寄主分布的栗山天牛中国适生区"
地区Regions | 高适生区High suitable regions | 中适生区Moderate suitable regions | 低适生区Low suitable regions | 非适生区Unsuitable regions |
黑龙江Heilongjiang | 海林县、嫩江县Hailin, Nenjiang | — | — | 全域多地Many areas |
吉林Jilin | 中部、东部Central, east | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
辽宁Liaoning | 东南部和西部义县Southeast and west in Yixian County | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
内蒙古 Inner Mongolia | 牙克石市、阿拉善、乌拉特前旗、土默特左旗 Yakeshi, Alashan, Urad Front Banner, Tumd Left Banner | — | — | 剩余地区 Other areas |
北京Beijing | 全域All ranges | — | — | — |
天津Tianjin | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
河北Hebei | 全域多地Many areas | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
山西Shanxi | 全域多地Many areas | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
山东 Shandong | 泰安市区、青岛市、蒙阴县 Tai’an, Qingdao, Mengyin | 烟台市、肥城县 Yantai, Feicheng | 济南市、平邑县、枣庄市、五莲县 Jinan, Pingyi, Zaozhuang, Wulian | 剩余地区 Other areas |
陕西Shaanxi | 延安市、蓝田县、周至县Yan’an, Lantian, Zhouzhi | 南部South | 中部、南部Central, south | 剩余地区Other areas |
宁夏Ningxia | 中卫市Zhongwei | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
河南Henan | 鹿邑县Luyi | 南部South | 南部South | 剩余地区Other areas |
安徽Anhui | 黄山市Huangshan | 全域多地Many areas | 南部South | 剩余地区Other areas |
湖北Hubei | 房县、远安县Fangxian, Yuan’an | 南部South | 西南部Southwest | 剩余地区Other areas |
甘肃Gansu | 兰州市、合水县、定西县市 Lanzhou, Heshui, Dingxi | — | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
四川Sichuan | 若尔盖县、松潘县、小金县 Ruoergai, Songpan, Xiaojin | 中部、南部Central, south | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
江苏Jiangsu | — | 南部South | 南部South | 剩余地区Other areas |
上海Shanghai | — | 全域All ranges | — | — |
浙江 Zhejiang | — | 江山市、龙泉市、杭州市 Jiangshan, Longquan, Hangzhou | 全域多地 Many areas | 剩余地区 Other areas |
重庆Chongqing | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
贵州Guizhou | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
湖南Hunan | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
江西Jiangxi | — | 武宁县、安福县Wuning, Anfu | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
福建Fujian | — | 莆田市、厦门市Putian, Xiamen | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
云南Yunnan | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
广西Guangxi | — | 百色市Baise | 北部、西部North, west | 剩余地区Other areas |
广东Guangdong | — | 乐昌市Lechang | 全域多地Many areas | 剩余地区Other areas |
香港Hong Kong | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
澳门Macao | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
海南Hainan | — | — | 西南部Southwest | 剩余地区Other areas |
台湾Taiwan | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | — |
青海Qinghai | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
西藏Tibet | — | — | 林芝市Linzhi | 剩余地区Other areas |
新疆Xinjiang | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
表5
同时考虑寄主和气候因素的栗山天牛中国适生区"
地区Regions | 高适生区High suitable regions | 中适生区Moderate suitable regions | 低适生区Low suitable regions | 非适生区Unsuitable regions |
黑龙江 Heilongjiang | 东南部少量地区 Small southeastern areas | 东南部和西部少量地区 Small southeastern and western areas | 南部和东部少量地区 Small southern and eastern areas | 全域大多区域 Most parts |
吉林Jilin | 中部大多区域Most central parts | 中部、东部Central, east | 西部West | — |
辽宁Liaoning | 东部、西部少数地区East, small western areas | 中部Central | — | — |
内蒙古 Inner Mongolia | — | 牙克石市、乌拉特前旗、土默特左旗 Yakeshi, Urad Front Banner, Tumd left Banner | 阿拉善 Alashan | 剩余地区 Other areas |
北京Beijing | 全域All ranges | — | — | — |
天津Tianjin | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | — |
河北Hebei | 东北部、中部Northeast, central | 东北部、中部Northeast, central | 南部South | 西北部、南部Northwest, south |
山西Shanxi | 东南部少量地区Small southeastern areas | 全域多地Many areas | 中部、南部Central, south | 北部North |
山东 Shandong | 泰安市、青岛市、蒙阴县、烟台市 Tai’an, Qingdao, Mengyin, Yantai | 中部、东部 Central, east | 西部 West | — |
陕西Shaanxi | — | 中部、南部Central, south | 中部、南部Central, south | 北部North |
河南Henan | — | 南部少量地区Small southern areas | 全域多地Many areas | 东部少量地区Small eastern areas |
安徽 Anhui | — | 中部和东南部少量地区 Small central and southeastern areas | 全域多地 Many areas | 西北、东北和南部少量地区 Small northwestern, northeastern and southern areas |
江苏Jiangsu | — | 西部少量地区Small western areas | 全域多地Many areas | — |
上海Shanghai | — | 全域All ranges | — | — |
浙江Zhejiang | 东北部少量地区Small northeastern areas | 北部North | 中部、南部Central, south | 南部少量地区Small southern areas |
湖北Hubei | 中部、西部少量地区Small central and western areas | 西部West | 东部East | — |
重庆Chongqing | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | — |
四川Sichuan | — | 若尔盖县、松潘县、小金县 Ruoergai, Songpan, Xiaojin | 东部East | 西部West |
贵州Guizhou | — | 东北部Northeast | 全域多地Many areas | 中部Central |
湖南Hunan | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas | 南部少量地区Small southern areas |
江西Jiangxi | — | 武宁县、安福县Wuning, Anfu | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
福建Fujian | — | 莆田市、厦门市Putian, Xiamen | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
云南Yunnan | — | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
广西Guangxi | — | 北部少量地区Small northern areas | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
广东Guangdong | — | — | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
香港Hong Kong | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
澳门Macao | — | — | 全域All ranges | — |
海南Hainan | — | — | 西部West | 剩余地区Other areas |
台湾Taiwan | — | 北部少量地区Small northern areas | 全域多地Many areas | 全域多地Many areas |
宁夏Ningxia | — | 中卫市Zhongwei | — | 剩余地区Other areas |
青海Qinghai | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
甘肃Gansu | 天水市 Tianshui | 兰州市、合水县、定西市 Lanzhou, Heshui, Dingxi | 东部(与陕西接壤处) East (adjacent to Shaanxi) | 剩余地区 Other areas |
西藏Tibet | — | — | 林芝市Linzhi | 剩余地区Other areas |
新疆Xinjiang | — | — | — | 全域All ranges |
表6
栗山天牛实际调查分布点和模型准确性评估结果"
栗山天牛实际调查分布点 Distributional points of M. raddei through field investigations | 经纬度 Longitude and latitude | 仅基于气候因素的潜在适生区实际调查点囊括情况 Included conditions of survey sites in potential distribution only based on climatic factors | 基于气候和寄主因素的潜在适生区实际调查点囊括情况 Included conditions of survey sites in potential distribution based on the combination of climatic and host factors |
山东烟台昆嵛山 Kunyu mountain, Yantai, Shandong | 121.75°E, 37.29°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
山东栖霞方山蚕场 Fangshan silkworm field, Qixia, Shandong | 120.44°E, 37.13°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
安徽合肥西庐寺 Xilu temple, Hefei, Anhui | 117.00°E, 31.72°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
安徽合肥蜀山烈士陵园 Shushan martyr cemetery, Hefei, Anhui | 117.18°E, 31.84°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
河南西峡寺山森林公园 Sishan forest park, Xixia, Henan | 111.28°E, 33.17°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
福建南平茫荡山自然保护区 Mangdangshan nature reserve, Nanping, Fujian | 118.10°E, 26.71°N | 涵盖Included | 涵盖Included |
云南屏边大围山 Pingbian Dawei mountain, Yunnan | 103.41°E, 22.56°N | 未涵盖Not Included | 涵盖Included |
云南文山州盘龙森林公园 Panlong forest park, Wenshan, Yunnan | 104.15°E, 23.21°N | 未涵盖Not included | 涵盖Included |
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