基于MaxEnt模型的胡杨潜在适生区预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191214

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 利用最大熵生态位模型（MaxEnt）预测胡杨潜在分布区，以期确定胡杨在我国的潜在分布区，为其合理引种栽培、资源保护利用及可持续管理提供科学依据。方法: 通过文献查找、数据库检索、实地调查等，获取我国胡杨的分布点。根据胡杨生长区的环境特点和其自身生长特性，确定各分布点的气候、土壤、地形等29个环境因子，并将环境因子进行多重组合，筛选出影响胡杨潜在分布的主要限制因子，确定相关阈值并据此预测胡杨的潜在分布范围，同时利用受试者工作特征曲线检验模型精度。结果: 从本研究涉及指标来看，我国胡杨潜在分布的适宜区为132.83万km²，占全国陆地总面积的14.8%；潜在分布区为新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区、甘肃省和宁夏回族自治区；最适宜区为新疆中南部和内蒙古西部的额济纳旗，总面积为23.12万km²，占全国陆地总面积的2.4%；其中新疆的最适宜区面积为22.42万km²，占全国最适宜区面积的96%；影响胡杨潜在分布的环境因子主要包括最湿月降水量、海拔、年降水量、年均气温、气温年较差和气温季节差，其中最湿月降水量是最重要因子。结论: 胡杨最适宜分布的气候条件是年均气温9.4~11℃、极端最高气温39.2~44℃、极端最低气温-17~-25℃、年降水量32.9~43.7 mm，土壤pH值为7.9~8.5，海拔约1 000 m。研究结果利于合理规划胡杨的引种栽培区，避免盲目引种造成人力、物力和财力的浪费，可为我国未来胡杨引种栽植及可持续管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 胡杨, 最大熵模型, 环境因子, 适生区, 潜在分布, 适宜性评价

Abstract:

Objectve: The MaxEnt ecologic niche model was used to predict the potential distribution area of Populus euphratica, in order to determine the potential distribution area of P. euphratica in China, and provide scientific basis for the introducing, cultivating technology, protection, utilization, and sustainable management of P. euphratica resources. Method: Through the literature search, database search, and field investigation, the distribution site information of P. euphratica was obtained. According to the environmental characteristics of the growing area of P. euphratica and its growth characteristics, 29 environmental factors were selected, including climatic, soil, and topographic factors. Main limiting factors for the P. euphratica distribution were determined by using multiple combination, and consequently the potential distribution areas of P. euphratica in China were identified. Meanwhile, using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the model precision was tested. Result: The result showed that the total potential distribution area of P. euphratica in China was 1.328 3 million km², accounting for 14.8% of the total land area of China. The potential distribution areas were Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The optimum distribution areas were Central South Xinjiang and the Ejina Basin of west Inner Mongolia, with a total area of 231 200 km², accounting for 2.4% of the total land area of China. Among them, the optimum distribution area in Xinjiang is 224 200 km², accounting for 96% of the total optimum distribution in China. The main environmental factors affecting P. euphratica potential distribution are the precipitation of the wettest month, altitude, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, temperature seasonality. Conclusion: The optimum distribution areas of P. euphratica require the climatic conditions of mean annual air temperature of 9.4-11℃, an extreme high air temperature of 39.2-44℃, an extreme low air temperature of-17—-25℃, the annual precipitation of 32.9-43.7 mm, and the soil pH-values of 7.9-8.5 as well as the altitude around 1 000 m.The result can be used to determine the suitable areas for the introduction and cultivation of P. euphratica to avoid the losses of human labor, material and financial resources due to improper decision, and to provide a scientific basis for the future introduction, cultivation and management of P. euphratica.

Key words: Populus euphratica, MaxEnt model, environmental variables, suitable area, potential distribution, habitat suitability assessment, identification

中图分类号:

S718.5

厉静文,郭浩,王雨生,辛智鸣,吕永军. 基于MaxEnt模型的胡杨潜在适生区预测[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(12): 133-139.

Jingwen Li,Hao Guo,Yusheng Wang,Zhiming Xin,Yongjun Lü. Identification of Potential Distribution Area for Populus euphratica by the MaxEnt Ecologic Niche Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2019, 55(12): 133-139.

图/表 2

表1

表2

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省份 Province	最适宜区面积 The most suitable area/km²	适宜区面积 Suitable area/km²	次适宜区面积 Sub-suitable area/km²	不适宜区面积 Non-suitable area/km²
新疆维吾尔自治区Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region	224 165	285 030	391 064	651 466
内蒙古自治区Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region	6 204	82 543	217 749	802 349
宁夏回族自治区Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region	97	4 220	17 687	29 068
甘肃省Gansu Province	590	5 313	89 006	330 435
合计Sum	231 183	377 322	719 818	8 179 369

环境变量 Environment variables	贡献率 Contribution rate	累计贡献率 Accumulated contribution rate
最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month	56.67	56.67
海拔Altitude	6.97	63.63
气温日较差Mean diurnal temperature range	4.85	68.48
气温季节差Temperature seasonality	4.17	72.65
最湿季平均气温Mean temperature of wettest quarter	3.97	76.62
土壤有效含水量Soil effective water content	3.78	80.40
年降水量Annual precipitation	3.74	84.14
有机碳含量Organic carbon content	3.33	87.47
等温性Isothermality	2.60	90.07
极端最高气温Extreme maximum temperature	2.57	92.64
气温年较差Temperature annual range	2.18	94.82
土壤酸碱度Soil pH	1.89	96.71
年平均气温Annual mean temperature	1.46	98.18
可交换钠盐含量Exchangeable sodium salt content	1.14	99.31
最冷季平均温度Mean temperature of coldest quarter	0.69	100.00

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