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林业科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (11): 37-44.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20191105

• 论文与研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化情景下基于潜在NPP的河北省华北落叶松生长适宜性

吕振刚1,2,李文博2,黄选瑞2,张志东2,*   

  1. 1. 华中农业大学资源与环境学院 武汉 430070
    2. 河北农业大学林学院 河北省林木种质资源与森林保护重点实验室 保定 071000
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-09 出版日期:2019-11-25 发布日期:2019-12-21
  • 通讯作者: 张志东
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0600403);林业公益性行业科研专项(20150430304);国家自然科学基金项目(2012BAD22B0304)

Larix principis-rupprechtii Growth Suitability Based on Potential NPP under Climate Change Scenarios in Hebei Province

Zhengang Lü1,2,Wenbo Li2,Xuanrui Huang2,Zhidong Zhang2,*   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan 430070
    2. Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Forest Trees Germplasm Resources and Forest Protection College of Forestry, Agricultural University of Hebei Baoding 071000
  • Received:2019-03-09 Online:2019-11-25 Published:2019-12-21
  • Contact: Zhidong Zhang
  • Supported by:
    国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0600403);林业公益性行业科研专项(20150430304);国家自然科学基金项目(2012BAD22B0304)

摘要:

目的: 模拟华北落叶松当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在NPP,并以此为基础评价其生长适宜性,为评估气候变化对华北落叶松林的影响和精准提升森林质量提供理论依据。方法: 基于河北省森林资源二类调查数据和2001-2010年累年平均NDVI数据,采用Climate AP气候模型生成当前及未来(2040-2069年和2070-2099年)时期的气候数据,利用CASA模型计算华北落叶松当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在NPP,以此为基础分析其生长适宜性,并运用Pearson相关分析法在像元尺度上分析气温和降水变化对潜在NPP的影响。结果: 河北省华北落叶松当前潜在NPP均值为342.7 gC·m-2a-1,其生长适宜性较低的区域主要集中在平原和西北部高海拔地区,占研究区总面积的80%以上,生长适宜性较高的区域主要集中在亚高山地带,占研究区总面积的比例低于20%;2040-2069年的年均潜在NPP上升为392.9 gC·m-2a-1,总体生长适宜性明显提高,中适宜生长区面积大规模扩大至59.4%;2070-2099年的年均潜在NPP略微下降为375.1 gC·m-2a-1,总体生长适宜性下滑,生长适宜性较高区域面积明显缩小;河北省华北落叶松潜在NPP主要受降水量影响,大部分区域华北落叶松的潜在NPP与降水量显著正相关(P < 0.05),当前的降水条件限制华北落叶松的生产力。结论: 随着气候变化,河北省华北落叶松生长适宜性将发生显著变化,变化主要发生在低适宜生长区和中适宜生长区,总体适宜性将提高。在华北落叶松当前及未来生长适宜性均较高的地区适当扩大其营造面积,有利于防范气候变化的不利影响。。

关键词: 气候变化, CASA模型, 华北落叶松, 净初级生产力, 生长适宜性

Abstract:

Objective: Simulating the potential NPP spatial pattern and classifying the appropriate growth level of Larix principis-rupprechtii trees,are essential steps to assess the impact of climate change on the species and to provide a theoretical basis for formulating adaptive forest management strategies and for improving forest quality. Method: Based on the forest resource inventory data and the yearly accumulative NDVI data from 2001 to 2010 in Hebei Province,the climate datasets of current and two future periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099)were generated using the Climate AP model. The CASA model was applied to predict potential NPP of the L. principis-rupprechtii and to analyze its growth suitability in the current and the two future periods. Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore influence of temperature and precipitation on the spatial pattern of potential NPP at the pixel scale. Result: The current average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii was 342.7 gC·m-2a-1in Hebei Province. More than 80% areas of Hebei Province,including plains and northwest region with high elevation,had low suitability for the L. principis-rupprechtii growth. Whereas areas with high growth suitability of L. principis-rupprechtii might tend to potentially occur in the subalpine region,only accounting for less than 20% of the whole region. From 2040 to 2069, the average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii will be increased to 392.9 gC·m-2a-1,the overall suitability will be significantly improved,and the medium-suitable area will be expanded significantly to 59.4% of the whole region. From 2070 to 2099, the average annual potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii will be decreased slightly to 375.1 gC·m-2a-1,the growth suitability will be decreased,and the proportion of high suitable area will be reduced. The potential NPP of L. principis-rupprechtii in Hebei Province was mainly affected by precipitation and it was significantly positively correlated with precipitation in most areas(P < 0.05). The current precipitation conditions limit the productivity of L. principis-rupprechtii. Conclusion: The results indicated that the growth suitability of L. principis-rupprechtii change under changing climate in the future. The change mainly occurred in the region with low and medium-growth suitability and the overall suitability will be improved. Enlarging afforestation area of L. principis-rupprechtii in high growth suitable region for current and future could be an option for preventing the adverse effects of climate change.

Key words: climate change, CASA model, Larix principis-rupprechtii, net primary production, growth suitability

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