关键词: 节能减排, 森林保护, 综合减排, 直接减排, 气候政策, DICE模型

Abstract:

Objective: Studying the comprehensive effects of energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation on the economic and climate change, especially analyzing the realization path, costs and benefits of the climate targets of "to ensure that the global average temperature is higher than the pre-industrial level within 2℃ and make efforts to control the temperature within 1.5℃" proposed by Paris Agreement, as well as clarifying the important role of forest conservation in mitigating and coping with climate change, will provide a theoretical basis for the integration of forest conservation into climate negotiations, promote low-cost emission reduction, maintain moderate economic growth, as well as improve the ecological environment and the efficiency of climate policies. Method: This paper sets up four scenarios. Depending on the approaches taken to tackle climate change, each scenario (excepting baseline scenario) is subdivided into two categories, i.e., comprehensive abatement and direct abatement. Comprehensive abatement represents an organic combination of energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation. On the contrary, direct abatement means that only energy conservation and emission reduction measures are taken, without considering the potential contribution of forest conservation to climate change. Introducing the forest conservation control variables and cost functions into the DICE-2013R model, using the GAMS (general algebraic modeling system)software to program and the PATHNLP solver to solve the model, this paper simulates the comprehensive abatement effects of energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation, and compares it with the single direct abatement situation.Result: Firstly, the organic combination of these two approaches, i.e., energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation, is conducive to cut down the total cost of tackling climate change (climate change damage and total carbon abatement costs), as well as to alleviate the pressure of substantial carbon abatement to a certain extent by buying time for R&D of carbon abatement technology. Secondly, the combination of these two approaches makes the peak of total carbon emissions decrease and the peak of industrial carbon emissions increase. The latter is slightly higher than the former. Thirdly, the government should rationally design the proportion of direct abatement (i.e., energy conservation and emission reduction) and indirect abatement (forest conservation, which will reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks), so as to minimize the total carbon abatement costs. The moderate combination of energy conservation, emission reduction and forest conservation makes the lowest costs of carbon abatement and the highest social welfare under the optimal case. Fourthly, considering the potential contribution of forest conservation to climate change, the social carbon costs of 2℃ and 1.5℃ targets proposed by Paris Agreement are significantly declined. The difference between social carbon cost and carbon price tends to shrink. Last but not the least, the combination of these two approaches can achieve the virtuous circle of reducing carbon emission, increasing forest carbon sinks and promoting economic development. In comprehensive abatement situation, the efficiency of Paris Agreement is improved and 1.5℃ target transfers from cost inefficiency into cost efficiency, although the net income is limited. Objective: In the new economic normal, industrial production is facing heavy downward pressure. The abilities to save energy consumption and reduce emissions are weakened generally. In this period of structural adjustment in China, the government should introduce more policies to guide public funds and private funds to invest in afforestation and reforestation as well as other forest carbon sinks activities, take full advantages of the"combination boxing" (i.e., strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction, increase forest carbon sinks), so as to achieve the virtuous circle of reducing carbon emission, increasing forest carbon sinks and promoting economic development.

Key words: energy conservation and emission reduction, forest conservation, comprehensive abatement, direct abatement, climate policies, DICE model