关键词: 木材消耗, 经济发展, 国际贸易, 木质林产品, 中国

Abstract: [Objective] At present, China has become the second largest country of wood consumption and the largest country of wood importing in world, but for the reason that the total amount of forest resources in China is relatively inadequate, it's very difficult to satisfy the tremendous demand for wood and ecological environment. Due to consumption of a large number of timber, economic development and forest product trade have become a focus for solving forest problems. However,research on the effects of economic development and forest product trade on forest resources has not reached a definite conclusion. To confirm the impact of China's economic development and forest products trade on wood consumption, it would be helpful to respond to the criticism that China is "the black hole" of the world's forest resources, to examine China's forest products trade mode which shows as "large number of imports and a large number of export at the same time", to evaluation the rising forest products trade protection in the world, and finally to provide scientific basis for the development of China's forestry industry. [Method] This paper used wood consumption per capita as the environmental pressure index of forest resources, and used multiple linear regression models based on the time series data of China from 1993 to 2013, to analyze the factors that affect wood consumption per capita,such as economic development,forest products trade,timber supply and technology progress. [Result] China's GDP per capita as the factor of economic development (1% significant level), China's forest product import trade as a factor of forest products trade (10% significant level), China's forest volume per capita as a factor of wood supply (10% significant level), have the significant positive impact on China's wood consumption per capita. China's forest product export trade as a factor of forest products trade (1% significant level) has a significant negative impact on China's wood consumption per capita. China's forest products import and export trade as a factor of forest products trade, China's roundwood production per capita as a factor of wood supply, China's timber industry technological progress index and China's recovered paper pulp utilization rate as the factor of technology progress, are not significant.[Conclusion] China's economic development is an important factor impacting on China's wood consumption per capita, China's wood consumption per capita is in the rising phase with China's GDP per capita from 2006. China's forest product export trade helps to reduce China's wood consumption per capita. China's forest product import trade improves China's wood consumption per capita, but compared with the use of native wood,forest product import trade is more conducive to reducing China's wood consumption per capita. Due to the ultra-limit logging, China's wood production can not represent the real domestic wood supply, but wood supply, represented by forest volume per capita, is still the most significant positive factor for China's wood consumption per capita. The technology progress of forestry industries has a positive effect on reducing the wood consumption per capita. The huge Chinese population has greatly reduced the wood consumption per capita, but China's wood consumption is still at the forefront of the world because Chinese population is too large. According to these results,this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as keeping China's forest products trade pattern at present,promoting forest product trade liberalization,keeping wood supply at moderately tight levels,and promoting the industrial technological innovation.

Key words: wood consumption, economic development, international trade, wooden forest products, China