欢迎访问林业科学,今天是

林业科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (11): 109-115.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20131115

• 论文与研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

舞毒蛾在上海市的适生性分析

朱宇1, 李成德1, 豆晓洁1, 冯琛2, 张岳峰2, 吴广超2, 王焱2   

  1. 1. 东北林业大学林学院 哈尔滨 150040;
    2. 上海市林业总站 上海 200072
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-27 修回日期:2013-04-02 出版日期:2013-11-25 发布日期:2013-11-26
  • 通讯作者: 李成德
  • 基金资助:

    上海市科委择优委托项目(09DZ1908800)。

Adaptability Analysis of Gypsy Moth in Shanghai

Zhu Yu1, Li Chengde1, Dou Xiaojie1, Feng Chen2, Zhang Yuefeng2, Wu Guangchao2, Wang Yan2   

  1. 1. School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University Harbin 150040;
    2. Shanghai Forestry Station Shanghai 200072
  • Received:2012-09-27 Revised:2013-04-02 Online:2013-11-25 Published:2013-11-26

摘要:

根据我国21个县市11个舞毒蛾发生区、10个未发生区近10年的气象因子数据,以气候数据的关键因子绘制21县(市)的气候特征图,结合舞毒蛾寄主植物在上海的分布,分析舞毒蛾在上海市的适生性;进一步利用判别分析法建立舞毒蛾在我国的分布预测模型,模型的预测正确率为100%。结果表明,根据气候特征图、舞毒蛾的寄主植物以及预测模型的判定,上海市具备舞毒蛾发生和危害的气候条件。

关键词: 舞毒蛾, 分布, 预测模型, 适生性, 上海

Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data of recent 10 years in 21 cities/counties in China, which cover 11 epidemic area and 10 non-epidemic area of Gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, a climate characteristic pattern of the 21 cities/counties was drawn based on the key meteorological factors. Combined with distribution of the host plants in Shanghai City, the adaptability of Gypsy moth was analyzed. Furthermore, a distribution prediction model of Gypsy moth in China was established using the discriminant analysis techniques. The prediction accuracy of the model was 100%. The prediction model displays that Shanghai City possesses the climatic condition for outbreak of Gypsy moth according to the climate characteristic pattern, and host plant analysis.

Key words: Lymantria dispar, distribution, prediction model, adaptability, Shanghai

中图分类号: