天然林资源保护政策对重点国有林区林业新质生产力的影响——基于林业绿色全要素生产率视角

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240575

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 基于林业绿色全要素生产率视角，探究天然林资源保护政策对重点国有林区林业新质生产力的影响机制，为完善天然林资源保护政策、促进林业新质生产力提升提供参考。方法: 利用2011—2020年重点国有林区87家森工企业面板数据，运用效率驱动测度（EBM）模型测算林业新质生产力水平，采用双向固定效应模型和机制检验模型实证分析二者间的因果关系及其作用机制。结果: 1）天然林资源保护政策实施对重点国有林区林业新质生产力具有显著正向影响，经一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立；2）林业产业结构升级、经济模式转型和人力资本积累在天然林资源保护政策实施与重点国有林区林业新质生产力之间的影响关系中发挥传导作用；3）天然林资源保护政策实施对内蒙古森工集团、企业规模较小以及森林面积较大的森工企业林业新质生产力发展的促进作用更明显。结论: 天然林资源保护政策通过林业产业结构升级、经济模式转型和人力资本积累显著促进林业新质生产力发展，且其影响作用具有异质性。应加大天然林资源保护政策的财政投入，制定更为精细化的差异化政策，以适应不同地区的具体需求，优化林业资源配置，提升产业效率，以加速林业新质生产力的形成和培育，为林业可持续发展提供坚实的政策支持和实践指导。

关键词: 天然林资源保护政策, 重点国有林区, 林业新质生产力, 林业绿色全要素生产率

Abstract:

Objective: Despite many scholars focusing on the evaluation of the policy effects of the natural forest protection (NFP), there is scarce literature focusing on the causal relationship between the implementation of the natural forest protection policy (NFPP) and new quality productivity of forestry (NQPF). To fill this research gap, we study the impact mechanism of the policy of NFP on NQPF in key state-owned forest areas, aiming to provide scientific basis for optimizing the policy of NFP and enhancing NQPF. Method: Based on panel data from 87 forest industry enterprises in key state-owned forest areas from 2011 to 2020, using efficiency based measure (EBM) model to calculate levels of NQPF and methods such as two-way fixed effects model, we conduct empirical analysis on the causal impact and mechanism of the policy of NFPP on NQPF. Result: 1) The implementation of the policy of NFP has a significant positive impact on NQPF in key state-owned forest areas, which still holds true after a series robustness checks. 2) The upgrading of the forestry industry structure, the transformation of the economic model, and the accumulation of human capital play a transmission role in the relationship between the policy of NFP and NQPF. 3) The policy of NFP has a more significant promoting effect on the development of NQPF in Inner Mongolia forest industry group, small-scale forest industry enterprises, and forest industry enterprises with larger forest areas. Conclusion: Natural forest protection policy significantly promote the development of forestry new quality productivity through the upgrading of forestry industrial structure, the transformation of economic model and the accumulation of human capital, and its influence is heterogeneous. Based on this, increase financial input in tianbao project policy, and develop more refined differentiation policy, to adapt to the specific needs of different regions, optimize the allocation of forestry resources, improve industrial efficiency, to accelerate the formation of forestry new quality productivity and cultivation, for the sustainable development of forestry to provide solid policy support and practical guidance.

Key words: natural forest protection policy, key state-owned forest areas, new quality productivity of forestry, forestry green total factor productivity

中图分类号:

S7-9
F307.2

张少鹏,付瑶,朱洪革,赵梦涵. 天然林资源保护政策对重点国有林区林业新质生产力的影响——基于林业绿色全要素生产率视角[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(6): 183-195.

Shaopeng Zhang,Yao Fu,Hongge Zhu,Menghan Zhao. Impact of Natural Forest Protection Policies in Key State-Owned Forest Areas on the New Quality Productivity of Forestry: Based on the Perspective of Forestry Green Total Factor Productivity[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(6): 183-195.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

变量的描述性分析与相关性分析结果①"

变量类型 Type of variables	变量名称 Name of variables	变量符号 Symbol of variables	变量含义 Meaning of variables	均值 Mean value	标准差 Standard deviation	相关系数 Coefficient of correlation
被解释变量 Dependent variable	林业新质生产力 New quality productivity of forestry	GTFP	通过EBM模型测度的森工企业林业绿色全要素生产率 Forestry green TFP of forest industry enterprises measured by EBM model	0.658	0.262	1.000
核心解释变量 Core independent variable	天然林资源保护政策实施 Implementation of the day protection project policy	TBGC	森工企业获得的天然林资源保护财政资金总额的对数 Logarithm of the total amount of financial funds for the natural forest protection policy obtained by forest industry enterprises	11.509	1.335	0.284^***
机制变量 Mechanism variables	产业结构升级 Upgrading of industrial structure	ISU	森工企业林业第三产业产值占林业产业总产值的比重 The proportion of output value of forestry tertiary industry in total output value of forestry industry in forest industry enterprises	0.352	0.131	0.096^***
	经济模式转型 Transformation of economic model	EMT	森工企业非林产业产值占林业产业总产值的比重 The proportion of non-forest industry output value in total forestry industry output value of forest industry enterprises	0.562	0.309	0.271^***
	人力资本积累 Human capital accumulation	HCA	森工企业的在岗职工年末平均工资总额的对数 The logarithm of the total average salary of the employees in the forest industry enterprise at the end of the year	10.583	0.832	0.416^**
控制变量 Control variables	企业规模 Size of enterprise	ES	森工企业林业系统年末从业人员的对数 Logarithm of year-end employees in forestry system of forest industry enterprises	9.165	1.143	0.305^**
	社会投资 Social investment	SI	社会投资额占森工企业投资完成总额的比重 The proportion of social investment in the total investment of forest industry enterprises	0.018	0.022	0.074^*
	管护设施 Management and maintenance facility	GF	森工企业建设的管护站和管护中队数量的对数 Logarithm of the number of management and maintenance stations and management and maintenance squadrons built by forest industry enterprises	5.361	0.526	0.193^**
	劳动生产率 Productivity of labor	LP	森工企业林业产业总产值与在岗职工总数比值的对数 Logarithm of the ratio between the total output value of forestry industry and the total number of employees in the forest industry enterprise	8.873	2.405	0.182^***
	外商投资 Foreign investment	FI	城市外商及港澳台直接投资额与地区生产总值的比重 The proportion of foreign direct investment and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan direct investment to regional GDP	0.028	0.016	0.086^***
	研发强度 Research and development intensity	RD	城市研发投入R&D经费与地区生产总值的比重 The proportion of urban R&D investment in R&D and regional GDP	0.056	0.023	0.327^**

表2

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表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

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一级指标 First-level index	二级指标 Second-level index	三级指标 Third-level index
投入指标 Index of input	劳动力投入 Labor force input	林业在岗职工平均人数 Average number of forestry workers on duty
	资本投入 Capital input	林业实际投资完成额 Actual forestry investment completed
	资源投入 Resources input	森林面积 Area of forest
产出指标 Indicator of output	期望产出 Expected output	林业产业总产值 Total output value of forestry industry
	期望产出 Expected output	造林面积 Area of afforestation
	非期望产出 Undesired output	林业废水排放量 Forestry wastewater discharge
		林业废气排放量 Forestry waste gas emissions
		林业固体废弃物排放量 Forestry solid waste emissions

变量 Variables	无控制变量&无控制固定效应 No control variables & no fixed effect	有控制变量&无控制固定效应 With control variables & no fixed effect	有控制变量&有控制固定效应 With control variables & with fixed effect
变量 Variables	GTFP	GTFP	GTFP
TBGC	0.106^***(0.018)	0.077^***(0.016)	0.048^***(0.013)
ES		-0.091(0.315)	-0.046(0.194)
SI		0.192(0.705)	0.150^*(0.082)
GF		0.059^*(0.032)	0.084^**(0.038)
LP		0.031^***(0.009)	0.024^**(0.012)
FI		0.146(0.119)	0.193(0.208)
RD		0.161^***(0.013)	0.209^***(0.015)
常数项Constant		0.088^**(0.037)	0.164^***(0.039)
个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect	否No	否No	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	否No	否No	是Yes
拟合优度 Goodness of fit	0.149	0.412	0.494
观测值 Observations	870	870	870

变量 Variables	解释变量滞后一期 Lagging the independent variables one phase （1）	替换被解释变量 Replacing the dependent variable （2）	缩短样本时间窗 Shortening the sample time window （3）	使用高维固定效应 Using the high-dimensional fixed effects （4）	采用工具变量法 Adopting the instrumental variable method （5）
变量 Variables	GTFP	GTFP	GTFP	GTFP	GTFP
TBGC	0.101^** (0.045)	0.133^*** (0.041)	0.218^*** (0.025)	0.090^* (0.057)	0.076^** (0.037)
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
个体×时间固定效应 Individual × time fixed effects	否No	否No	否No	是Yes	否No
拟合优度 Goodness of fit	0.329	0.637	0.394	0.186	0.281
观测值 Observations	870	870	783	870	870

变量 Variables	天然林资源保护财政资金对林业产业结构升级的回归结果 The regression results of the financial funds of natural forest resource protection to the upgrading of forestry industrial structure （1）	天然林资源保护财政资金对林业经济模式转型的回归结果 The regression results of financial funds of natural forest resource protection to the transformation of forestry economic model （2）	天然林资源保护财政资金对林业人力资本积累的回归结果 The regression results of the financial funds of natural forest resource protection on the accumulation of forestry human capital （3）
变量 Variables	ISU	EMT	HCA
TBGC	0.252^*** (0.046)	0.080^*** (0.019)	0.406^* (0.273)
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
拟合优度 Goodness of fit	0.327	0.515	0.073
观测值 Observations	870	870	870

变量 Variables	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
变量 Variables	龙江森工集团 Longjiang forest industry groups	伊春森工集团 Yichun forest industry groups	内蒙古森工集团 Inner Mongolia forest industry groups	吉林森工集团 Jilin forest industry groups	长白山森工集团 Changbai mountain forest industry groups	大兴安岭林业集团 The Daxing’anling forestry industry groups
TBGC	0.047 (0.110)	0.032^* (0.018)	0.075^*** (0.016)	0.041^** (0.018)	0.009 (0.021)	0.055^*** (0.011)
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应 Time fixed effect	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
拟合优度 Goodness of fit	0.084	0.202	0.595	0.286	0.190	0.623
观测值 Observations	230	170	190	80	100	100