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林业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6): 159-182.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240541

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

乡村数字化影响林业新质生产力发展的理论逻辑与作用机制

徐彩瑶1,2,钱一莹2,孔凡斌3,*(),柯水发4,王浩5   

  1. 1. 浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院/“千万工程”研究院 杭州311300
    2. 浙江农林大学经济管理学院 杭州 311300
    3. 南京林业大学数字林业与绿色发展研究院/经济管理学院 南京210037
    4. 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院 北京 100872
    5. 北京理工大学管理学院 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-20 出版日期:2025-06-10 发布日期:2025-06-26
  • 通讯作者: 孔凡斌 E-mail:kongfanbin@aliyun.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42301328,42371294,42071283);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA105)。

Theoretical Logic and Mechanism of Rural Digitalization Affecting the Development of Forestry New Quality Productive Forces

Caiyao Xu1,2,Yiying Qian2,Fanbin Kong3,*(),Shuifa Ke4,Hao Wang5   

  1. 1. Rural Revitalization Academy of Zhejiang Province/Green Rural Revival Program Academy, Zhejiang A & F University Hangzhou 311300
    2. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A & F University Hangzhou 311300
    3. Institute of Digital Forestry and Green Development/College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing 210037
    4. School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China Beijing 100872
    5. School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing 100081
  • Received:2024-09-20 Online:2025-06-10 Published:2025-06-26
  • Contact: Fanbin Kong E-mail:kongfanbin@aliyun.com

摘要:

目的: 厘清并剖析乡村数字化影响林业新质生产力发展的理论逻辑、作用机制与路径,为数字赋能林业高质量发展并推动建设现代林业产业体系提供科学依据。方法: 基于2012—2020年中国30个省级行政单元面板数据,构建乡村数字化水平和林业新质生产力发展水平的综合评价指标体系,采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型等实证分析乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展的影响及其作用机制。结果: 1) 基准回归结果表明,乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展具有显著促进作用,乡村数字化水平每提升1个单位,林业新质生产力发展水平增加0.064 5个单位,经过工具变量一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。2) 区域异质性分析结果表明,乡村数字化能够显著促进中国东部和西部地区的林业新质生产力发展。不同林业新质生产力发展水平的异质性分析结果表明,在低林业新质生产力发展水平地区,乡村数字化能够显著促进林业新质生产力发展。维度异质性分析结果表明,数字基础设施和数字产业发展能够显著促进林业新质生产力发展,数字基础设施的促进作用更大;乡村数字化能够显著促进新型林业劳动者的形成。3) 作用机制分析结果表明,乡村数字化通过发挥技术创新突破效应、劳动力资源配置效应、产业升级驱动效应和资源管理提质效应能够促进林业新质生产力发展。4) 空间计量模型结果表明,乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展的影响存在显著的负向空间溢出效应。结论: 2012—2020年中国30个省级行政单元乡村数字化水平不断提高,对林业新质生产力发展水平产生显著提升作用,且林业科技创新水平、林业人力资本存量、林业产业结构高级化水平和环境规制强度在不同程度上影响乡村数字化促进林业新质生产力发展。各省级行政单元应坚持持续推进乡村数字化发展,加强乡村数字基础设施建设,有效推动数字产业发展,积极鼓励林业技术创新,提升林业人力资本水平,持续推动林业产业结构高级化,优化环境规制并适度提高其强度,以加快提升中国林业新质生产力发展水平。

关键词: 乡村数字化, 新质生产力, 林业产业发展, 理论逻辑, 路径机制

Abstract:

Objective: It is of great practical significance to clarify and analyze the performance theory, mechanism, and pathways of rural digitalization affecting the development of forestry new quality productive forces, to provide a scientific basis for digitally empowering the high-quality development of forestry and promote the construction of modern forestry industry system. Method: Based on the panel data of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2012 to 2020, a comprehensive evaluation index system of rural digitalization level and forestry new quality productive forces development level was constructed. The two-way fixed effect model, intermediary effect model, and spatial Dubin model were used to empirically analyze the impact of rural digitalization on the development of forestry new quality productive forces and its mechanism. Result: 1) Benchmark regression results show that rural digitalization has a significant contribution to the development of forestry new quality productive forces, with the level of forestry new quality productive forces increasing by 0.0645 units for every 1 unit increase in the level of rural digitalization. This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. 2) The results of regional heterogeneity analysis show that rural digitalization can significantly promote the development of forestry new quality productive forces in eastern and western China. In areas with low development levels of forestry new quality productive forces, rural digitalization can significantly contribute to the development of forestry new quality productive forces. The results of dimensional heterogeneity analyses showed that the development of digital infrastructure and digital industry can significantly promote the development of forestry new quality productive forces with digital infrastructure contributing more, and the digital transformation of rural areas has a greater role in promoting new forestry labors. 3) The results of mechanism analysis show that rural digitalization can promote the development of forestry new quality productive forces by releasing technological innovation breakthrough effect, labor resource allocation effect, industrial upgrading driving effect, and resource management quality improvement effect. 4) The results of the spatial econometric model show that the level of rural digitalization has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on the development level of forestry new quality productive forces. The short-term and long-term indirect effects are significantly negative. Conclusion: From 2012 to 2020, the level of rural digitalization in China’s 30 provincial administrative units will continue to increase, which will have a significant effect on the development of forestry new quality productive forces, and the level of forestry science and technology innovation, the stock of forestry human capital, the level of advanced forestry industry structure and the intensity of environmental regulation will affect the development of rural digitalization in promoting the development of forestry new quality productive forces to a different extent. Therefore, provincial administrative units should continue to promote rural digital development, strengthen rural digital infrastructure construction, effectively promote digital industry development, actively encourage forestry technology innovation, enhance forestry human capital, continue to promote the advanced structure of the forestry industry, and optimize environmental regulations and moderately increase their intensity, to accelerate the development of forestry new quality productive forces in China.

Key words: rural digitalization, new quality productive forces, forestry industry development, theoretical logic, pathway mechanisms

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