林业科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6): 159-182.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240541
收稿日期:
2024-09-20
出版日期:
2025-06-10
发布日期:
2025-06-26
通讯作者:
孔凡斌
E-mail:kongfanbin@aliyun.com
基金资助:
Caiyao Xu1,2,Yiying Qian2,Fanbin Kong3,*(),Shuifa Ke4,Hao Wang5
Received:
2024-09-20
Online:
2025-06-10
Published:
2025-06-26
Contact:
Fanbin Kong
E-mail:kongfanbin@aliyun.com
摘要:
目的: 厘清并剖析乡村数字化影响林业新质生产力发展的理论逻辑、作用机制与路径,为数字赋能林业高质量发展并推动建设现代林业产业体系提供科学依据。方法: 基于2012—2020年中国30个省级行政单元面板数据,构建乡村数字化水平和林业新质生产力发展水平的综合评价指标体系,采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型等实证分析乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展的影响及其作用机制。结果: 1) 基准回归结果表明,乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展具有显著促进作用,乡村数字化水平每提升1个单位,林业新质生产力发展水平增加0.064 5个单位,经过工具变量一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。2) 区域异质性分析结果表明,乡村数字化能够显著促进中国东部和西部地区的林业新质生产力发展。不同林业新质生产力发展水平的异质性分析结果表明,在低林业新质生产力发展水平地区,乡村数字化能够显著促进林业新质生产力发展。维度异质性分析结果表明,数字基础设施和数字产业发展能够显著促进林业新质生产力发展,数字基础设施的促进作用更大;乡村数字化能够显著促进新型林业劳动者的形成。3) 作用机制分析结果表明,乡村数字化通过发挥技术创新突破效应、劳动力资源配置效应、产业升级驱动效应和资源管理提质效应能够促进林业新质生产力发展。4) 空间计量模型结果表明,乡村数字化对林业新质生产力发展的影响存在显著的负向空间溢出效应。结论: 2012—2020年中国30个省级行政单元乡村数字化水平不断提高,对林业新质生产力发展水平产生显著提升作用,且林业科技创新水平、林业人力资本存量、林业产业结构高级化水平和环境规制强度在不同程度上影响乡村数字化促进林业新质生产力发展。各省级行政单元应坚持持续推进乡村数字化发展,加强乡村数字基础设施建设,有效推动数字产业发展,积极鼓励林业技术创新,提升林业人力资本水平,持续推动林业产业结构高级化,优化环境规制并适度提高其强度,以加快提升中国林业新质生产力发展水平。
中图分类号:
徐彩瑶,钱一莹,孔凡斌,柯水发,王浩. 乡村数字化影响林业新质生产力发展的理论逻辑与作用机制[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(6): 159-182.
Caiyao Xu,Yiying Qian,Fanbin Kong,Shuifa Ke,Hao Wang. Theoretical Logic and Mechanism of Rural Digitalization Affecting the Development of Forestry New Quality Productive Forces[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(6): 159-182.
表1
乡村数字化水平评价指标体系"
总指标 Indicator | 一级指标 Primary indicators | 二级指标 Secondary indicators | 三级指标 Tertiary indicators | 属性 Attribute | 权重 Weights |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 数字基础 设施 Digital infrastructure | 乡村互联网普及率 Rural internet penetration rate | 乡村宽带接入用户/乡村户数量 Share of administrative villages with internet broadband service | + | 0.023 7 |
乡村居民每百户计算机拥有量 Computers per 100 rural households | + | 0.033 9 | |||
乡村数字化设备 Rural digitalization equipment | 乡村居民每百户移动电话拥有量Cellphone ownership per 100 rural households | + | 0.013 8 | ||
乡村数字化监测 Rural digitalization monitoring | 农业气象观测站数量 Number of agro-meteorological observation stations | + | 0.026 3 | ||
数字创新 水平 Digital innovation level | 乡村信息技术应用 Rural IT applications | 乡村营业网点服务人口 Population served by rural business outlets | ? | 0.006 6 | |
乡村数字产品与服务消费 Rural consumption of digital goods and services | 乡村居民数字产品及服务的消费支出Consumer spending on digital products and services by rural residents | + | 0.030 3 | ||
乡村数字金融 Rural digital finance | 数字普惠金融水平 Level of digital financial inclusion | + | 0.022 4 | ||
乡村信息化投资 Investment in rural informatization | 乡村信息技术投资 Rural information technology investments | + | 0.048 0 | ||
数字产业 发展 Digital industry development | 乡村生产数字化 Rural production digitalization | 第一产业中数字经济增加值 Value added of digital economy in primary industry | + | 0.089 2 | |
乡村流通数字化 Rural distribution digitalization | 乡村物流业务 Rural logistics operations | + | 0.197 0 | ||
乡村运营数字化 Rural operations digitalization | 乡村电子商务销售额采购额 Rural e-commerce sales purchases | + | 0.131 4 | ||
乡村数字产业创新基地 Rural digital industry innovation bases | 淘宝村数量 Number of Taobao villages | + | 0.377 4 |
表2
林业新质生产力发展水平的评价指标体系"
总指标Indicator | 一级指标 Primary index | 二级指标 Secondary index | 三级指标 Tertiary index | 属性 Attribute | 权重 Weights |
林业新质生产力发展水平 The development level of forestry new quality productive forces | 新型林业劳动者 New forest labors | 林业劳动者技能 Forestry labor skills | 林业人员质量 Quality of forestry personnel | + | 0.002 7 |
林业人员数量 Number of forestry personnel | + | 0.094 1 | |||
林业劳动生产率 Forestry labor productivity | 单位林业劳动生产率 Labor productivity per unit of forestry | + | 0.071 3 | ||
林业增加值增长率 Forestry value added growth rate | + | 0.009 6 | |||
林业劳动者意识 Forestry worker awareness | 林业科研支出 Expenditures on forestry research | + | 0.081 2 | ||
林业新质生产力政府关注度 (实际值) Government interest in new quality productivity in forestry (real value) | + | 0.007 0 | |||
新型林业劳动对象 New forestry labor objects | 新质林业产业 New quality forestry industry | 新兴林业产业产值占比 Percentage of output value of emerging forestry industry | + | 0.124 9 | |
传统林业产业产值占比 Percentage of output value of traditional forestry industry | + | 0.029 1 | |||
林业资源情况 Forestry resources | 森林覆盖率 Forest cover | + | 0.028 2 | ||
林业碳汇总量 Total forestry carbon sinks | + | 0.076 9 | |||
林区生态环境 Forest ecosystem | 林业碳排放总量 Total forestry carbon emissions | ? | 0.004 0 | ||
林业灾害防治率 Forestry disaster control rate | + | 0.009 8 | |||
新型林业劳动资料 New forestry labor materials | 林业创新基础 Forestry innovation base | 林业创新指数(实际值) Forestry innovation index (real value) | + | 0.006 1 | |
林业科技推广站 Number of forestry science and technology extension stations | + | 0.082 3 | |||
林业物质资料 Forestry material | 林业数字智能智慧基础设施 建设情况 Forestry digital intelligence smart infrastructure development | + | 0.017 2 | ||
林业能源投资 Forestry energy investment | + | 0.149 7 | |||
林业非物质资料 Forestry intangible information | 林业旅游与休闲产业带动产值 Forestry tourism and recreation industry driving output | + | 0.109 4 | ||
森林生态系统服务价值 Forest ecosystem service values | + | 0.096 6 |
表3
变量描述性统计"
变量类型 Variables type | 变量名称 Variables name | 样本量 Sample size | 均值 Mean | 标准差 SD | 最小值 Min. | 最大值 Max. |
被解释变量 Explanatory variable | 林业新质生产力发展水平 The development level of forestry new quality productive forces | 270 | 0.141 6 | 0.080 0 | 0.029 8 | 0.425 7 |
核心解释变量 Core explanatory variables | 乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 270 | 0.139 6 | 0.102 5 | 0.041 8 | 0.758 2 |
控制变量 Control variables | 经济发展水平 Level of economic development | 270 | 10.877 9 | 0.421 5 | 9.888 9 | 12.013 0 |
财政支出规模 Fiscal expenditure scale | 270 | 0.266 2 | 0.114 2 | 0.119 6 | 0.758 3 | |
对外开放程度 Degree of openness to the outside world | 270 | 0.266 8 | 0.275 9 | 0.008 0 | 1.354 0 | |
基础设施水平 Infrastructure level | 270 | 11.693 8 | 0.847 4 | 9.436 8 | 12.885 0 | |
中介变量 Mediating variables | 林业科技创新水平 Forestry science and technology innovation level | 270 | 0.063 7 | 0.092 3 | 0.000 9 | 0.593 4 |
林业人力资本存量 Forestry human capital stock | 270 | 23.979 5 | 41.179 1 | 0.088 3 | 268.937 4 | |
环境规制强度 Environmental regulatory intensity | 270 | 0.003 2 | 0.003 1 | 0.000 1 | 0.028 0 | |
林业产业结构高级化水平 Forestry industrial structure advanced level | 270 | 0.848 4 | 0.226 0 | 0.020 0 | 1.910 0 |
表4
2012—2020年中国乡村数字化水平的变化特征①"
省级行政单元 Provincial-level administrative unit | 乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | ||||||||
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
北京Beijing | 0.113 7 (6) | 0.129 2 (6) | 0.137 4 (6) | 0.149 1 (7) | 0.160 4 (7) | 0.184 4 (7) | 0.181 7 (9) | 0.207 3 (9) | 0.225 6 (9) |
天津Tianjin | 0.067 2 (23) | 0.073 3 (22) | 0.073 8 (23) | 0.079 9 (24) | 0.089 7 (24) | 0.092 3 (23) | 0.091 9 (24) | 0.099 2 (25) | 0.108 9 (23) |
河北Hebei | 0.089 8 (11) | 0.103 9 (10) | 0.116 4 (10) | 0.130 6 (10) | 0.143 3 (11) | 0.169 5 (10) | 0.195 1 (7) | 0.236 6 (6) | 0.283 9 (6) |
山西Shanxi | 0.072 0 (19) | 0.079 1 (20) | 0.083 1 (19) | 0.090 2 (20) | 0.095 8 (19) | 0.100 9 (19) | 0.109 6 (19) | 0.116 7 (19) | 0.123 1 (20) |
内蒙古Inner Mongolia | 0.068 0 (22) | 0.071 2 (23) | 0.068 5 (25) | 0.085 2 (22) | 0.091 8 (22) | 0.095 5 (22) | 0.099 4 (22) | 0.106 2 (22) | 0.112 1 (22) |
辽宁Liaoning | 0.095 2 (10) | 0.097 9 (13) | 0.099 3 (14) | 0.111 8 (15) | 0.114 0 (15) | 0.117 8 (15) | 0.123 8 (16) | 0.131 7 (16) | 0.136 3 (16) |
吉林Jilin | 0.063 2 (26) | 0.069 4 (25) | 0.071 4 (24) | 0.078 6 (25) | 0.079 7 (26) | 0.084 6 (25) | 0.085 5 (27) | 0.089 0 (27) | 0.091 5 (27) |
黑龙江Heilongjiang | 0.080 5 (16) | 0.090 4 (17) | 0.087 3 (17) | 0.095 0 (17) | 0.098 1 (17) | 0.110 8 (17) | 0.113 1 (18) | 0.121 0 (18) | 0.130 5 (18) |
上海Shanghai | 0.098 8 (9) | 0.103 4 (11) | 0.132 9 (8) | 0.137 0 (9) | 0.159 6 (8) | 0.169 8 (9) | 0.178 2 (11) | 0.192 5 (11) | 0.216 4 (10) |
江苏Jiangsu | 0.129 4 (3) | 0.149 7 (3) | 0.162 3 (3) | 0.199 0 (3) | 0.227 3 (3) | 0.268 1 (3) | 0.325 6 (3) | 0.388 7 (3) | 0.431 3 (3) |
浙江Zhejiang | 0.146 9 (2) | 0.161 0 (2) | 0.186 0 (2) | 0.246 9 (2) | 0.325 3 (2) | 0.391 4 (2) | 0.517 9 (2) | 0.660 9 (1) | 0.758 2 (1) |
安徽Anhui | 0.081 4 (15) | 0.097 1 (14) | 0.104 2 (12) | 0.113 2 (14) | 0.115 2 (14) | 0.123 5 (13) | 0.143 0 (13) | 0.157 7 (13) | 0.175 2 (12) |
福建Fujian | 0.128 5 (4) | 0.131 5 (4) | 0.139 3 (4) | 0.157 2 (5) | 0.167 4 (6) | 0.184 6 (6) | 0.220 0 (5) | 0.258 1 (5) | 0.300 2 (5) |
江西Jiangxi | 0.069 5 (21) | 0.080 7 (18) | 0.081 5 (20) | 0.092 4 (18) | 0.096 4 (18) | 0.106 0 (18) | 0.114 0 (17) | 0.128 3 (17) | 0.135 2 (17) |
山东Shandong | 0.113 0 (7) | 0.130 6 (5) | 0.138 9 (5) | 0.164 3 (4) | 0.203 4 (4) | 0.262 9 (4) | 0.311 4 (4) | 0.333 7 (4) | 0.385 4 (4) |
河南Henan | 0.101 0 (8) | 0.123 6 (7) | 0.130 5 (9) | 0.149 7 (6) | 0.172 0 (5) | 0.202 1 (5) | 0.205 8 (6) | 0.233 1 (7) | 0.268 6 (7) |
湖北Hubei | 0.085 2 (14) | 0.105 9 (9) | 0.110 7 (11) | 0.125 3 (11) | 0.144 3 (10) | 0.164 8 (11) | 0.184 8 (8) | 0.212 3 (8) | 0.232 9 (8) |
湖南Hunan | 0.088 5 (12) | 0.099 3 (12) | 0.102 8 (13) | 0.114 6 (13) | 0.117 6 (13) | 0.122 6 (14) | 0.140 2 (14) | 0.149 0 (14) | 0.160 3 (14) |
广东Guangdong | 0.168 3 (1) | 0.206 2 (1) | 0.228 1 (1) | 0.278 4 (1) | 0.348 4 (1) | 0.431 9 (1) | 0.518 4 (1) | 0.629 8 (2) | 0.731 5 (2) |
广西Guangxi | 0.085 2 (13) | 0.095 4 (15) | 0.099 1 (15) | 0.114 8 (12) | 0.124 9 (12) | 0.135 7 (12) | 0.144 3 (12) | 0.161 0 (12) | 0.173 3 (13) |
海南Hainan | 0.075 0 (18) | 0.068 5 (26) | 0.065 2 (26) | 0.074 6 (26) | 0.080 2 (25) | 0.083 1 (26) | 0.090 5 (25) | 0.100 1 (24) | 0.106 2 (24) |
重庆 Chongqing | 0.065 9 (24) | 0.069 8 (24) | 0.076 7 (22) | 0.085 0 (23) | 0.092 9 (21) | 0.096 4 (21) | 0.106 0 (21) | 0.116 5 (20) | 0.128 1 (19) |
四川Sichuan | 0.120 4 (5) | 0.122 8 (8) | 0.135 3 (7) | 0.139 1 (8) | 0.151 3 (9) | 0.170 2 (8) | 0.179 0 (10) | 0.195 2 (10) | 0.208 1 (11) |
贵州 Guizhou | 0.053 9 (27) | 0.063 2 (27) | 0.061 6 (27) | 0.071 2 (27) | 0.078 2 (27) | 0.081 5 (27) | 0.081 2 (27) | 0.086 2 (28) | 0.086 4 (28) |
云南Yunnan | 0.080 4 (17) | 0.092 7 (16) | 0.094 2 (16) | 0.106 2 (16) | 0.110 2 (16) | 0.116 6 (16) | 0.125 9 (16) | 0.143 2 (15) | 0.147 0 (15) |
陕西Shaanxi | 0.064 4 (25) | 0.075 8 (21) | 0.079 5 (21) | 0.086 0 (21) | 0.093 0 (20) | 0.100 2 (20) | 0.099 7 (21) | 0.107 7 (21) | 0.114 9 (21) |
甘肃Gansu | 0.048 4 (28) | 0.054 9 (28) | 0.061 2 (28) | 0.069 1 (28) | 0.069 6 (28) | 0.080 8 (28) | 0.088 8 (28) | 0.092 5 (28) | 0.097 8 (26) |
青海Qinghai | 0.041 8 (30) | 0.049 0 (30) | 0.053 6 (29) | 0.061 2 (29) | 0.062 8 (29) | 0.068 3 (29) | 0.070 2 (29) | 0.074 7 (29) | 0.077 4 (29) |
宁夏Ningxia | 0.045 2 (29) | 0.053 1 (29) | 0.052 5 (30) | 0.060 3 (30) | 0.059 0 (30) | 0.063 5 (30) | 0.068 1 (30) | 0.072 5 (30) | 0.075 9 (30) |
新疆Xinjiang | 0.071 7 (20) | 0.080 3 (19) | 0.084 2 (18) | 0.090 2 (19) | 0.090 4 (23) | 0.092 2 (24) | 0.097 9 (23) | 0.100 5 (23) | 0.104 9 (25) |
平均值Mean | 0.087 1 | 0.097 6 | 0.103 9 | 0.118 5 | 0.132 1 | 0.149 1 | 0.167 0 | 0.190 1 | 0.210 9 |
表5
基准回归结果①"
变量 Variables | 个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect | 双向固定效应 Two-way fixed effects | 个体固定效应 Individual fixed effect | 双向固定效应 Two-way fixed effects |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.216 1*** (0.026 1) | 0.055 0* (0.029 6) | 0.048 9* (0.025 2) | 0.064 5** (0.027 5) |
经济发展水平 Economic development level | 0.103 7*** (0.012 1) | 0.110 7*** (0.014 7) | ||
财政支出规模 Fiscal expenditure scale | ?0.003 3 (0.061 1) | ?0.007 4 (0.065 6) | ||
对外开放程度 Degree of openness to the outside world | 0.060 5*** (0.020 8) | 0.060 4*** (0.022 3) | ||
基础设施水平 Infrastructure level | 0.045 0* (0.025 2) | 0.062 6** (0.030 3) | ||
常数项 Constant | 0.111 5*** (0.004 0) | 0.106 2*** (0.005 0) | ?1.533 9*** (0.225 1) | ?1.812 8*** (0.354 8) |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | ||
R2 | 0.223 5 | 0.428 9 | 0.575 6 | 0.584 1 |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 |
表6
不同区位条件下异质性分析回归结果①"
变量 Variables | 东部地区 Eastern region | 中部地区 Central region | 西部地区 Western region | 东北部地区 North-eastern region |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.098 2*** (0.025 2) | ?0.190 6 (0.236 0) | 0.704 2** (0.344 5) | ?0.626 3 (0.574 5) |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
常数项 Constant | ?0.714 6* (0.409 5) | ?4.344 2*** (1.226 3) | ?0.878 0 (0.911 2) | ?0.877 8 (1.590 0) |
R2 | 0.671 0 | 0.817 0 | 0.571 4 | 0.592 1 |
观测值 Observations | 90 | 54 | 99 | 27 |
表7
不同林业新质生产力发展水平下异质性分析回归结果①"
变量 Variables | 0.10分位点 0.10 percentile | 0.25分位点 0.25 percentile | 0.50分位点 0.50 percentile | 0.75分位点 0.75 percentile | 0.90分位点 0.90 percentile |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.078 0*** (0.015 0) | 0.070 9** (0.034 3) | 0.135 3* (0.071 3) | 0.034 4 (0.066 5) | ?0.082 2 (0.192 5) |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
常数项 Constant | ?0.661 9*** (0.063 6) | ?0.493 6*** (0.145 5) | ?0.235 7 (0.302 2) | ?0.674 3** (0.281 8) | ?1.242 8 (0.816 0) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 |
表8
乡村数字化水平结构维度的异质性分析回归结果①"
变量 Variables | 林业新质生产力发展水平 The development level of forestry new quality productive forces | ||
(1) | (2) | (3) | |
数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure | 1.357 0** (0.584 9) | ||
数字创新水平 Digital innovation level | ?0.479 0 (0.464 9) | ||
数字产业发展 Digital industry development | 0.062 8** (0.027 4) | ||
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制 Controlled | 控制 Controlled | 控制 Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制 Controlled | 控制 Controlled | 控制 Controlled |
常数项 Constant | ?1.392 4*** (0.370 8) | ?1.658 9*** (0.353 7) | ?1.819 9*** (0.355 7) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 |
表9
林业新质生产力发展水平结构维度的异质性分析回归结果①"
变量 Variables | (1) 新型林业劳动者 New forestry labors | (2) 新型林业劳动对象 New forestry labor objects | (3) 新型林业劳动资料 New forestry labor materials |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.044 5*** (0.011 8) | ?0.005 2 (0.010 9) | 0.025 2 (0.021 1) |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
常数项 Constant | ?0.576 0*** (0.151 9) | ?0.164 1 (0.140 4) | ?1.072 7*** (0.271 6) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 |
表10
作用机制检验结果①"
变量 Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
技术创新突破效应 Technological innovation breakthrough effect | 劳动力资源配置效应 Labor resource allocation effect | 产业升级驱动效应 Resource management quality improvement effect | 资源管理提质效应 Industrial upgrading driving effect | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.177 9*** (0.051 6) | 16.520 5** (6.735 1) | 0.430 7** (0.209 1) | 0.004 9* (0.002 8) |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
常数项 Constant | 0.002 8 (0.664 2) | ?241.504 9*** (86.779 9) | ?7.653 2*** (2.694 2) | 0.040 6 (0.035 5) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 | 270 |
R2 | 0.285 6 | 0.511 8 | 0.345 1 | 0.261 7 |
表11
空间自相关检验结果①"
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 林业新质生产力发展水平 The development level of forestry new quality productive forces | ||
年份 Year | Moran’s I | 年份 Year | Moran’s I |
2012 | 0.048 5** | 2012 | 0.029 8* |
2013 | 0.036 8** | 2013 | 0.033 5** |
2014 | 0.046 8** | 2014 | ?0.003 1 |
2015 | 0.043 2** | 2015 | 0.048 4** |
2016 | 0.040 4** | 2016 | 0.069 7*** |
2017 | 0.024 8* | 2017 | 0.111 5*** |
2018 | 0.028 8* | 2018 | 0.090 3*** |
2019 | 0.026 4* | 2019 | 0.106 5*** |
2020 | 0.026 5* | 2020 | 0.080 3*** |
表13
空间计量模型的LR检验结果①"
变量 Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) |
SDM | SAR | SEM | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.034 8 (0.067 2) | 0.143 9** (0.057 8) | 0.065 1*** (0.025 3) |
经济发展水平 Economic development level | 6.551 5*** (1.021 0) | 6.513 3*** (0.848 9) | 0.112 2*** (0.013 6) |
财政支出规模 Fiscal expenditure scale | ?0.177 5 (0.011 3) | ?0.190 6* (0.106 6) | ?0.008 0 (0.060 6) |
对外开放程度 Degree of openness to the outside world | ?0.022 3 (0.030 3) | ?0.027 3 (0.030 9) | 0.059 9*** (0.020 5) |
基础设施水平 Infrastructure level | 1.591 1 (1.883 8) | 5.460 9*** (1.624 9) | 0.060 4** (0.028 2) |
W×乡村数字化水平 W×rural digitalization level | ?0.948 4** (0.462 8) | ||
W×经济发展水平 W×economic development level | 17.369 0*** (0.099 1) | ||
W×财政支出规模 W×fiscal expenditure scale | ?1.822 8** (0.826 0) | ||
W×对外开放程度 W×degree of openness to the outside world | 0.112 1 (0.241 9) | ||
W×基础设施水平 W×infrastructure level | ?51.335 1*** (14.853 3) | ||
Spatial_rho | ?0.637 4** (0.257 4) | ?0.411 0* (0.222 8) | |
lambda | ?0.135 8 (0.239 2) | ||
sigma2_e | 0.009 2*** (0.000 8) | 0.010 1*** (0.000 9) | 0.000 3*** (0.000 0) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 |
R2 | 0.105 0 | 0.669 3 | 0.574 9 |
表14
空间杜宾模型估计结果①"
变量 Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) |
空间固定 效应模型 Time fixed effects model | 时间固定 效应模型 Spatial fixed effects model | 双向固定 效应模型 Two-way fixed effects model | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.101 2 (0.061 7) | ?0.077 1 (0.094 0) | 0.034 8 (0.067 2) |
经济发展水平 Economic development level | 6.292 7*** (0.889 3) | 1.330 5 (1.124 5) | 6.551 5*** (1.021 0) |
财政支出规模 Fiscal expenditure scale | ?0.085 8 (0.105 7) | 0.019 3 (0.129 5) | ?0.177 5 (0.011 3) |
对外开放程度 Degree of openness to the outside world | ?0.031 2 (0.031 4) | 0.093 5* (0.048 8) | ?0.022 3 (0.030 3) |
基础设施水平 Infrastructure level | 4.525 1*** (1.675 6) | 5.700 6*** (0.556 7) | 1.591 1 (1.883 8) |
W×乡村数字化水平 W×rural digitalization level | ?0.265 3 (0.167 6) | ?3.006 2*** (0.691 6) | ?0.948 4** (0.462 8) |
W×经济发展水平 W×economic development level | 9.850 2** (4.166 1) | 3.616 6 (7.063 2) | 17.369 0*** (0.099 1) |
W×财政支出规模 W×fiscal expenditure scale | 0.192 5 (0.264 9) | ?0.662 4 (0.886 0) | ?1.822 8** (0.826 0) |
W×对外开放程度 W×degree of openness to the outside world | ?0.126 8 (0.129 0) | 2.451 3*** (0.356 1) | 0.112 1 (0.241 9) |
W×基础设施水平 W×infrastructure level | ?14.936 4* (8.128 6) | 22.604 8*** (5.075 8) | ?51.335 1*** (14.853 3) |
Spatial_rho | ?0.240 0 (0.218 8) | 0.232 3 (0.199 1) | ?0.637 4** (0.257 4) |
sigma2_e | 0.010 2*** (0.000 9) | 0.112 6*** (0.009 7) | 0.009 2*** (0.000 8) |
观测值 Observations | 270 | 270 | 270 |
R2 | 0.683 3 | 0.513 9 | 0.105 0 |
表15
空间杜宾模型的空间效应分解结果①"
变量 Variables | 林业新质生产力发展水平 The development level of forestry new quality productive forces | ||
直接效应 Direct effect | 间接效应 Indirect effect | 总效应 Total effect | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.061 3 (0.066 0) | ?0.609 8** (0.308 2) | ?0.548 5* (0.324 9) |
数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure | 0.184 4** (0.091 4) | 0.361 4 (0.396 8) | 0.545 9 (0.395 0) |
数字创新水平 Digital innovation level | ?0.065 9 (0.097 8) | ?0.000 8 (0.389 3) | ?0.066 7 (0.371 5) |
数字产业发展 Digital industry development | 0.066 5*** (0.024 8) | ?0.279 9** (0.113 3) | ?0.213 5* (0.113 7) |
表17
内生性讨论与稳健性检验结果①"
变量 Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) |
替换解释变量 Replacing explanatory variables | 剔除直辖市 Excluding municipalities | 缩尾 Shrink tail | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.075 4** (0.035 8) | 0.078 4** (0.031 8) | 0.067 2** (0.029 7) |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制 Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制 Controlled | 控制Controlled | 控制Controlled |
观测值 Observations | 240 | 234 | 270 |
R2 | 0.522 2 | 0.603 3 | 0.584 3 |
表18
空间效应分析的稳健性检验结果①"
变量 Variables | 基于地理距离矩阵 Based on geographic distance matrix | |
系数Coefficient | 标准误Standard error | |
乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level | 0.032 6 | 0.025 5 |
W×乡村数字化水平 W×rural digitalization level | ?0.266 3** | 0.132 2 |
控制变量 Controlled variables | 是Yes | |
地区效应 Regional effect | 控制Controlled | |
时间效应 Time effect | 控制Controlled | |
Spatial_rho | ?1.029 5*** | 0.319 9 |
sigma2_e | 0.000 4*** | 0.000 0 |
观测值 Observations | 270 | |
R2 | 0.589 6 |
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