中国林业新质生产力的形成逻辑、时空演变与障碍因子分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240307

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 基于林业新质生产力的形成逻辑，构建中国林业新质生产力评价体系，捕捉其时空演变特征，探讨缓解当前林业新质生产力发展面临的主要制约因素，为中国林业新质生产力发展提供参考和决策依据。方法: 首先，基于中国31个省（区、市）2012—2020年共9年面板数据，采用熵值法对三级指标赋权，测算中国及各地区林业新质生产力综合情况以及各维度的发展水平；其次，运用核密度估计方法捕捉全国及各地区林业新质生产力的时空演变特征；再次，使用Dagum基尼系数计算并分解中国林业新质生产力在区域间的差异及其贡献率，同时借助Moran’s I检验各省的空间自相关性；最后，应用障碍因子识别方法找出阻碍林业新质生产力发展排名前3位的因素。结果: 1）在样本期内，中国林业新质生产力总体呈上升趋势，不过发展不平衡不充分的现象较为明显；2）全国及各地区内和地区间，林业新质生产力的基尼系数变化均处于波动中上升状态，且各省林业新质生产力发展水平存在空间自相关性和空间聚集特征；3）林业新质生产力发展主要受单位林业劳动生产率、新兴新质林业产业产值占比以及森林生态系统服务价值因素制约。结论: 未来，应完善新型林业劳动者所需的培训体系，加强林业科技推广；调整新型林业劳动资料所需的产业结构，推动林业产业升级；优化新型林业劳动对象所需的政策体系，打通价值转化渠道。

关键词: 新质生产力, 林业产业, 形成逻辑, 时空演变, 障碍因子识别

Abstract:

Objective: Based on the logic of the formation of new quality productive forces in forestry, this study constructs an evaluation system for China’s forestry new quality productive forces and captures the spatiotemporal evolution process. It explores how to alleviate the main constraints currently faced by the development of forestry new quality productive forces, providing a reference and decision-making basis for the targeted development of China’s forestry new quality productive forces. Method: First, based on panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2012 to 2020, the entropy weighting method was applied to assign weights to tertiary indicators, calculating the comprehensive and dimensional development levels of new quality productivity in forestry across regions. Second, kernel density estimation was used to capture the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of forestry productivity at the national and regional levels. Third, the Dagum Gini coefficient method was employed to calculate and decompose regional disparities in forestry productivity and assess spatial autocorrelation among provinces using Moran’s I. Lastly, obstacle factor identification was utilized to pinpoint the top three factors hindering the development of new-quality productivity in forestry. Result: First, China’s forestry new quality productive forces exhibited an overall upward trend during the sample period, yet the phenomenon of unbalanced and insufficient development was quite evident. Second, the Gini coefficient of forestry new quality productive forces, both within and between regions, has fluctuated and increased, with spatial autocorrelation and clustering characteristics evident among the development levels of forestry new quality productive forces in each province. Third, the study indicates that the development of forestry new quality productive forces is primarily constrained by the unit forestry labor productivity, the proportion of the output value of emerging and new forestry industries, and the value of forest ecosystem services. Conclusion: In the future, First, to enhance the training system required for new forestry workers and strengthen the extension of forestry science and technology. Second, to adjust the industrial structure required for new forestry labor materials and promote the upgrading of the forestry industry. Third, to optimize the policy system required for new forestry labor objects and facilitate the channels of value transformation.

Key words: forestry new productive forces, forest industry, formation logic, spatial & temporal evolution, obstacle factors identification

中图分类号:

S7-9
F307.2

柯水发,万深玮,孔凡斌,朱洪革. 中国林业新质生产力的形成逻辑、时空演变与障碍因子分析[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(3): 199-213.

Shuifa Ke,Shenwei Wan,Fanbin Kong,Hongge Zhu. Formation Logic, Spatial &Temporal Evolution and Obstacle Factors Analysis of China’s Forestry New Quality Productive Forces[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(3): 199-213.

图/表 13

图1

表1

中国林业新质生产力评价体系①"

一级指标 Primary indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	三级指标 Tertiary indicator	指标定义与说明 Indicator definition and explanation	权重 Weight (%)	指标符号与属性 Indicator symbol and attribute
新型林业劳动者 New forestry laborers	林业劳动者技能 Forestry labor skills	当地就业人员平均受教育年限^1） Average years of schooling of persons employed in the local forestry industry/year	（文盲人数×1+小学学历人数×6+初中学历人数×9+高中和中专学历人数×12+大专及本科以上学历人数×16）/ 6岁以上人口总数 (Number of illiterate × 1 + number of primary school graduates × 6 + number of junior high school graduates × 9 + number of high school and secondary vocational school graduates × 12 + number of college and university graduates × 16)/total population aged 6 and above	0.83	X₁(+)
	林业劳动者技能 Forestry labor skills	林业单位专业技术人员在岗职工占比 Proportion of professional and technical personnel in forestry units (%)	林业单位专业技术人员在岗职工/林业从业总人数 Number of professional and technical personnel in forestry units/total number of forestry employees	15.87	X₂(+)
	林业劳动生产率Forestry labor productivity	单位林业劳动生产率 Forestry labor productivity per unit/ 10⁴ yuan	林业总产值/林业从业人数 Forestry total output value/number of forestry employees	10.65	X₃(+)
	林业劳动者意识 Forestry labor awareness	新注册涉林企业的数量 Actual value of forestry industry innovation index	根据Wind数据库获取 Obtained from Wind database	6.80	X₄(+)
		林业产业创新指数（实际值） Actual value of forestry industry innovation index	通过专利更新模型估计每项价值并加总到林业产业层面^2） Estimation of each value through patent renewal modeling and summation to the forest industry level	0.88	X₅(+)
		林业新质生产力政府关注度（实际值） Government attention (actual value)	政府工作报告文本中关于农林业新质生产力的词频数加1后取自然对数 The logarithm of the word frequency of“new productive forces of agriculture and forestry”in the government work report	0.87	X₆(+)
		林草科技推广指导扶持的林业经济合作组织数量 Number of forestry economic cooperatives supported by forestry and grassland science and technology extension and guidance	林草科技推广指导扶持的林业经济合作组织数 Number of forestry economic cooperatives supported by forestry and grassland science and technology extension and guidance	14.02	X₇(+)
新型林业劳动对象 New forestry labor objects	新质林业产业 Forestry new industries	新兴新质林业产业产值占比 Proportion of emerging new forestry industries output value (%)	林业系统非林产业产值/林业总产值 Non-timber forest product output value/forestry total output value	18.59	X₈(+)
	新质林业产业 Forestry new industries	传统新质化产业产值占比^3） Proportion of traditional industries undergoing transformation (%)	第三产业涉林产业产值/林业总产值 Tertiary industry forestry-related industries output value/forestry total output value	4.18	X₉(+)
	林业资源环境 Forest resources	森林面积（实际值）Actual value of forest area	森林面积的对数形式 Logarithm of forest area	1.28	X₁₀(+)
		森林蓄积（实际值）Actual value of forest stock	森林蓄积的对数形式 Actual value of forest stock	1.23	X₁₁(+)
		森林灾害发生情况（实际值） Actual value of forest disaster occurrence	森林生物灾害的发生总面积的对数形式 Logarithm of total area affected by forest biological disasters	2.55	X₁₂(-)
新型林业劳动资料New forestry labor materials	林业物质资料 Forestry material resources	林业数字基础设施建设情况^4） Forestry digital infrastructure construction situation (%)	互联网用户数占常住人口比重 Proportion of internet users in the resident population	2.52	X₁₃(+)
	林业物质资料 Forestry material resources	林业能耗率 Forestry energy consumption rate (tons of standard coal/10⁴ yuan)	能源消耗总量/林业总产值(等价值) Total energy consumption/forestry total output value (equivalent value)	0.35	X₁₄(-)
	林业非物质资料 Forestry non-material resources	森林文旅经济产值占比 Proportion of economic value of forest culture and tourism (%)	森林旅游、木质工艺品和木质文教体育用品制造、花卉及其他观赏性植物种植产值/林业总产值 Output value of forest tourism, woodcraft, manufacture of wooden cultural, educational and sports goods, flower and other ornamental plant cultivation/forestry total output Value	4.83	X₁₅(+)
	林业非物质资料 Forestry non-material resources	森林生态系统服务价值 Forest ecosystem service value/10⁴ yuan	分区统计计算所得的森林生态系统服务总价值 Total forest ecosystem service value calculated by zoning	14.55	X₁₆(+)

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基尼系数及贡献率 Gini coefficient and contribution rate		2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	均值 Mean
总体基尼系数 Overall Gini coefficient		0.189	0.168	0.212	0.178	0.191	0.217	0.214	0.196	0.236	0.200
地区内基尼系数 Intra-regional Gini coefficient	东部 Eastern	0.188	0.148	0.188	0.172	0.151	0.189	0.171	0.157	0.190	0.173
	中部 Central	0.151	0.137	0.137	0.131	0.134	0.127	0.156	0.136	0.154	0.140
	西部 Western	0.203	0.164	0.263	0.156	0.209	0.199	0.179	0.201	0.270	0.205
	东北 Northeastern	0.033	0.056	0.061	0.048	0.063	0.042	0.050	0.045	0.054	0.050
地区间基尼系数 Inter-regional Gini coefficient	东部-中部 Eastern-Central	0.176	0.156	0.170	0.161	0.178	0.193	0.261	0.200	0.211	0.190
	东部-西部 Eastern-Western	0.227	0.194	0.249	0.208	0.203	0.239	0.191	0.194	0.246	0.217
	东部-东北 Eastern-Northeastern	0.150	0.125	0.154	0.162	0.135	0.216	0.149	0.152	0.213	0.162
	中部-西部 Central-Western	0.202	0.215	0.240	0.218	0.256	0.285	0.307	0.256	0.276	0.251
	中部-东北 Central-Northeastern	0.122	0.130	0.127	0.170	0.196	0.288	0.287	0.264	0.299	0.209
	西部-东北 Western-Northeastern	0.154	0.141	0.201	0.123	0.161	0.151	0.139	0.150	0.222	0.160
地区内贡献率 Intra-regional contribution rate (%)		28.74	26.00	29.66	25.75	26.11	24.04	22.67	25.77	27.13	26.21
地区间贡献率 Inter-regional contribution rate (%)		35.91	47.14	19.35	47.26	41.40	51.88	51.36	39.47	40.20	41.55
超变密度贡献率 Hypervariable density contribution rate (%)		35.35	26.86	50.99	26.99	32.49	24.08	25.97	34.76	32.67	32.24

年份 Year	全局Moran’s I Global Moran’s I	E(I)	sd(I)	z	P
2012	0.068	?0.033	0.038	2.640	0.004
2013	0.122	?0.033	0.039	4.006	0.000
2014	?0.008	?0.033	0.037	0.692	0.245
2015	0.099	?0.033	0.039	3.418	0.000
2016	0.111	?0.033	0.039	3.701	0.000
2017	0.195	?0.033	0.039	5.794	0.000
2018	0.159	?0.033	0.039	4.960	0.000
2019	0.141	?0.033	0.039	4.470	0.000
2020	0.198	?0.033	0.039	5.884	0.000

年份 Year	第一障碍因素 First obstacle factor		第二障碍因素 Second obstacle factor		第三障碍因素 Third obstacle factor
年份 Year	指标 Index	障碍度 Degree of obstruction	指标 Index	障碍度 Degree of obstruction	指标 Index	障碍度 Degree of obstruction
2012	X₃	0.1593	X₈	0.1465	X₁₆	0.1338
2013	X₃	0.1543	X₈	0.1473	X₁₆	0.1234
2014	X₈	0.1583	X₃	0.1479	X₁₆	0.1242
2015	X₃	0.1499	X₈	0.1494	X₁₆	0.1457
2016	X₈	0.1529	X₁₆	0.1224	X₃	0.1194
2017	X₁₆	0.1623	X₃	0.1613	X₈	0.1247
2018	X₃	0.1557	X₁₆	0.1525	X₈	0.1475
2019	X₁₆	0.1645	X₃	0.1610	X₈	0.1412
2020	X₁₆	0.1641	X₃	0.1624	X₈	0.1324

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