乡村数字化对林业新质生产力的影响

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240565

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探究乡村数字化对林业新质生产力的影响机制，为推动数字技术在林业领域的有效应用、实现林业高质量发展提供理论依据。方法: 基于2012—2022年中国31个省份面板数据，分别构建乡村数字化和林业新质生产力评价指标体系，运用双向固定效应模型分析乡村数字化对林业新质生产力的影响机制及其空间异质性。结果: 1） 2012—2022年，中国乡村数字化水平呈持续上升趋势；林业新质生产力水平呈波动增长态势，整体而言仍有较大提升空间。2）中国乡村数字化对林业新质生产力具有显著促进作用，且存在明显地区差异，其作用强度呈现西部>中部>东部的梯度特征，西部地区的后发优势明显。3）乡村数字化对林业新质生产力的影响机制表现为“数字+科技”双轮驱动态势，而受数字化与绿色化不同步矛盾制约，对林业绿色生产力的影响目前并不显著。结论: 发展乡村数字化能够在不同程度上促进林业新质生产力提升；绿色生产力是未来提升林业新质生产力的重要突破口和着力点，政府应坚持绿色生态发展原则，加大乡村数字基础设施建设投入，通过数字技术和数据要素的双轮驱动实现绿色生产力的跃迁；同时，需因地制宜实施动态化、差异化的地区间林业发展策略，如探索基于空间异质性的林业数字化政策梯度补偿机制、探索数字“林长制”治理体系等，以推动林业高质量发展。

关键词: 林业新质生产力, 乡村数字化, 内生增长理论, 生产要素理论, 空间异质性

Abstract:

Objective: This study examines the influence mechanism of rural digitization on the forestry new quality productivity. It aims to provide theoretical foundation for promoting effective digital technology applications in forestry and achieving forestry high-quality development. Method: Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, evaluation index systems for rural digitalization and forestry new quality productivity are constructed. A two-way fixed effect model is employed to analyze the influence mechanism and spatial heterogeneity of rural digitalization on forestry new quality productivity. Result: 1) From 2012 to 2022, China’s rural digitalization level shows a sustained upward trend, while forestry new quality productivity level exhibits fluctuating growth but remains significant room for improvement. 2) China’s rural digitalization significantly influences forestry new quality productivity, with distinct regional disparities. The intensity of this effect follows a gradient pattern of western > central > eastern regions, where the western region benefits from a notable latecomer advantage. 3) The influence mechanism of rural digitalization on forestry new quality productivity exhibits a“digital + technological”dual-wheel drive. However, due to asynchronous development between digitalization and green transformation, its impact on forestry green productivity is currently insignificant. Conclusion: Enhancing rural digitalization can promote forestry new quality productivity to varying degrees. Green productivity represents a critical breakthrough and focus for enhancing forestry new quality productivity in the future. The government should adhere to green ecological development principles, increase investments in rural digital infrastructure, and drive significant improvements in green productivity through the combined forces of digital technology and data elements. Simultaneously, dynamic and differentiated regional forestry development strategies should be implemented, such as exploring gradient compensation mechanisms for forestry digitalization policies based on spatial heterogeneity and establishing a digital“forest ranger system”governance framework, to drive high-quality forestry development.

Key words: forestry new quality productivity, rural digitalization, endogenous growth theory, production factors theory, spatial heterogeneity

中图分类号:

S7-9
F326.2

黄安胜,薛泽茜,郭铭杰,许毓坤. 乡村数字化对林业新质生产力的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(11): 200-214.

Ansheng Huang,Zexi Xue,Mingjie Guo,Yukun Xu. Impact of Rural Digitalization on the Forestry New Quality Productivity[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(11): 200-214.

图/表 10

图1

表1

林业新质生产力指标体系"

一级指标 Primary index	二级指标 Secondary index	三级指标 Tertiary index	指标说明 Index specification	属性Attribute
科技生产力 Technological productivity	科技投入 Investment in science and technology	飞播造林 Aerial seeding afforestation	飞播造林面积 Aerial seeding afforestation area/hm²	+
		科研机构 Scientific research institutions	科研机构数量 Number of scientific research institutions	+
		科技活动 Scientific and technological activities	R&D人员全时当量×（林业产业总产值/地区生产总值） R&D personnel full-time equivalent×(total output value of the forestry industry/gross regional product)	+
	人才支撑 Talent support	科技人员 Scientific and technical staff	科技人员数量 Number of scientific and technical staff	+
	人才支撑 Talent support	专技人员Specialized staff	县级林业工作站专业技术人员数量/林草系统从业人员数量 Number of specialized staff in forestry workstations at the county level/number of employees in forestry and grassland systems (%)	+
	财政支持 Financial support	资金投入 Funding investment	资金投入 Funding investment/10⁴ yuan	+
	财政支持 Financial support	活动经费 Funding of activities	R&D经费×（林业产业总产值/地区生产总值） R&D funding×(gross output value of forestry industry/gross regional product)/10⁴ yuan	+
	科技推广 Promotion of technology	科技推广环境 Science and technology promotion environment	乡镇林业工作站加挂科技推广站牌子数量 The number of township forestry workstations designated as science and technology promotion stations	+
	科技推广 Promotion of technology	科技推广范围 Scope of technology promotion	乡镇林业工作站本年度科技推广面积 The area of township forestry workstations designated for science and technology promotion in the current year/hm²	+
绿色生产力 Green productivity	资源节约 Resource conservation	烧柴采伐强度 Intensity of firewood harvesting	农民烧柴采伐量/造林面积 Farmer's firewood harvesting/afforestation area/(10⁴ m³·hm^?2)	?
		林业生产 Forestry production	林业产业总产值/造林面积 Gross output value of forestry industry/afforestation area/ (10⁴ yuan·hm^?2)	+
		森林资源 Forest resources	森林覆盖率 Forest coverage (%)	+
		森林资源 Forest resources	林业碳汇量 Forestry carbon sequestration/10⁸ m³	+
	环境修复 Environmental remediation	退化林修复 Degraded forest restoration	退化林修复面积 Area of degraded forest restoration/hm²	+
	环境修复 Environmental remediation	湿地修复 Wetland restoration	湿地保护与修复投资 Investments in wetland conservation and restoration/10⁴ yuan	+
	生化防治 Biochemical control	有害生物防治 Pest control	林业有害生物防治率 Forestry pest control rate (%)	+
		有害生物防治 Pest control	林草有害生物防治投资 Investment in forest and grass pest control/10⁴ yuan	+
		化学农药防治 Chemical pesticide control	化学农药防治面积 Chemical pesticide control area/hm²	?
数字生产力 Digital productivity	数字基础设施 Digital infrastructure	数字信息化 Digital informatization	林业信息化投资 Forestry informatization investment/10⁴ yuan	+
	产业辐射作用 Industrial radiation	产业带动效益 Industry drives benefits	直接带动的其他产业产值 Output value of other industries driven by the forestry industry/10⁴ yuan	+
		产业链延伸 Extension of the industrial chain	林业第二产业产值/林业产业总产值 Output value of forestry secondary industry/gross output value of forestry industry (%)	+
		产业链延伸 Extension of the industrial chain	林业第三产业产值/林业产业总产值 Output value of forestry tertiary industry/gross output value of forestry industry (%)	+

表1

表2

乡村数字化指标体系"

一级指标 Primary index	二级指标 Secondary index	指标说明 Index specification
乡村数字基础 Rural digital fundamentals	经济基础 Economic	农林牧渔业增加值 Added value of agriculture， forestry， animal husbandry and fishery/10⁸ yuan
	经济基础 Economic	第一产业增加值占地区生产总值比例 Proportion of added value of primary industry in gross regional product (%)
	网络与数字基础设施 Network and digital infrastructure	开通互联网宽带业务的行政村比例 Proportion of administrative villages with Internet broadband services (%)
		互联网宽带接入用户量 Number of Internet broadband access users/10⁴ households
		农村宽带接入用户量 Number of rural broadband access users/10⁴ households
		农村居民平均每百户年末计算机拥有量 Average number of computers per 100 rural households at the end of the year
		农村居民平均每百户年末移动电话拥有量 Average number of mobile phones per 100 rural households at the end of the year
		农村广播节目综合人口覆盖率 Comprehensive population coverage of rural radio programmes (%)
		村庄道路长度 Length of village roads/km
乡村服务数字化 Digitalization of rural services	人力资源投入 Human resources investment	城镇信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业就业人员数量 Number of employed persons in town information transmission， software and information technology service/10⁴ people
	网络通讯成效 Internet communication effectiveness	农村投递路线 Rural delivery routes/km
	网络通讯成效 Internet communication effectiveness	已通邮的行政村比例 Proportion of administrative villages with postal services (%)
	消费匹配水平 Consumption matching level	镇区及乡村消费品零售额占全社会消费品零售额的比例 Proportion of retail sales of consumer goods in towns and villages to total retail sales of consumer goods (%)
	医疗保障 Medical coverage	医疗器具农村居民消费价格指数 Rural consumer price index for medical appliances
乡村经济数字化 Digitalization of rural economy	农业数字化 Digitalization of agriculture	农业机械总动力 Total power of agricultural machinery/10⁴ kW
	农业数字化 Digitalization of agriculture	电子商务销售额 E-commerce sales/10⁸ yuan
	数字产业化 Digital industrialization	数字普惠金融指数 Digital Financial Inclusion Index
		淘宝村数量 Number of Taobao villages
		有电子商务交易活动的企业数比例 Proportion of enterprises with e-commerce transaction activities (%)
		每百家企业拥有网站数量 Number of websites per 100 companies
乡村生态数字化 Digitalization of rural ecology	环境监测 Environmental monitoring	农业气象观测业务站点数量 Number of agrometeorological observation stations
		农村污水处理投入 Rural sewage treatment investment/10⁴ yuan
		农村用电量 Rural electricity consumption/10⁸ kW·h

表2

表3

表4

图2

表5

表6

表7

表8

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变量类型 Variable type	变量名称 Variable name	衡量指标 Measurement index	变量符号 Variable symbol	平均值 Average value	最大值 Max.	最小值 Min.	标准差 Standard deviation
被解释变量 Explained variable	林业新质生产力 Forestry new quality productivity	林业新质生产力综合指数 Composite index of forestry new quality productivity	Fnqp	0.089	0.309	0.011	0.048
解释变量 Explaining variable	乡村数字化 Rural digitalization	乡村数字化综合指数 Composite index of rural digitalization	Digit	0.180	0.643	0.034	0.108
控制变量 Control variables	封山育林情况 Mountain closure and afforestation	封山育林面积 Area of mountain closure for afforestation	Clo	55.322	376.870	0.000	55.572
	水土流失治理水平 Soil erosion control level	森林水土流失治理面积 Forest soil erosion control area	Sec	4 134.081	16 678.720	0.000	3 333.382
	森林受害情况 Forest damage	受害森林面积 Area of affected forests	Dam	0.413	16.780	0.000	1.134
	水利建设水平 Water conservancy construction level	森林有效灌溉面积 Area of effective irrigation of forests	Wcc	2 164.098	6 666.390	109.240	1 721.964

地区Region	省份 Province	乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level	林业新质生产力水平 Forestry new quality productivity level	地区Region	省份 Province	乡村数字化水平 Rural digitalization level	林业新质生产力水平 Forestry new quality productivity level
东部 Eastern	北京Beijing	0.184	0.038	中部 Central	山西Shanxi	0.121	0.038
	天津Tianjin	0.072	0.020		内蒙古 Inner Mongolia	0.126	0.153
	河北Hebei	0.274	0.083		吉林Jilin	0.115	0.064
	辽宁Liaoning	0.148	0.058		黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.151	0.080
	上海Shanghai	0.160	0.054		安徽Anhui	0.206	0.098
	江苏Jiangsu	0.385	0.107		江西Jiangxi	0.149	0.126
	浙江Zhejiang	0.348	0.137		河南Henan	0.274	0.077
	福建Fujian	0.197	0.122		湖北Hubei	0.212	0.108
	山东Shandong	0.365	0.134		湖南Hunan	0.205	0.145
	广东Guangdong	0.420	0.162	西部 Western	重庆Chongqing	0.115	0.053
	广西Guangxi	0.164	0.100		四川Sichuan	0.264	0.136
	海南Hainan	0.081	0.042		贵州Guizhou	0.125	0.091
东部平均Eastern average		0.233	0.088		云南Yunnan	0.162	0.103
中部平均Central average		0.173	0.099		西藏Xizang	0.059	0.076
西部平均Western average		0.124	0.082		陕西Shaanxi	0.143	0.118
全国平均National average		0.180	0.089		甘肃Gansu	0.118	0.139
					青海Qinghai	0.068	0.027
					宁夏Ningxia	0.067	0.027
					新疆Xinjiang	0.119	0.052

变量名称Variable name	随机效应模型 Random effect (RE)	固定效应模型 Fixed effects (FE)
Digit	0.155^*** (0.026)	0.179^*** (0.031)
Clo	0.078^*** (0.015)	0.053^*** (0.016)
Sec	0.009 (0.020)	?0.134^*** (0.039)
Dam	0.053^** (0.025)	0.022 (0.025)
Wcc	0.010 (0.018)	0.008 (0.048)
常数项Constant	0.043^*** (0.009)	0.079^*** (0.015)
N	341	341
R²	—	0.140
Hausman	38.53 (0.000 0)

变量名称Variable name	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）
Digit	0.161^***	0.139^**	0.124^**	0.125^**	0.123^**
Digit	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)
Clo		0.063^***	0.054^**	0.056^***	0.056^***
Clo		(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Sec			?0.162^***	?0.158^***	?0.155^***
Sec			(0.042)	(0.043)	(0.044)
Dam				0.021	0.020
Dam				(0.026)	(0.026)
Wcc					?0.014
Wcc					(0.049)
常数项Constant	0.006	0.006	0.011	0.011	0.011
常数项Constant	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
个体固定效应Entity fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
时间固定效应Time fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
N	341	341	341	341	341
R²	0.734	0.746	0.758	0.759	0.759
调整R² Adjust R²	0.698	0.711	0.723	0.723	0.722

内生性检验Endogeneity test			稳健性检验Robustness test
变量名称 Variable name	（1）	（2）	变量名称 Variable name	（3）	（4）
变量名称 Variable name	滞后一期 Lag one phase	工具变量法 Instrumental variable method	变量名称 Variable name	改变样本范围 Change the sample range	变量缩尾处理 Variable tailing
L.Digit	0.132^*	0.250^***	Digit	0.160^**	0.121^**
L.Digit	(0.056)	(0.037)	Digit	(?0.05)	(?0.046)
控制变量 Control variables	控制 Control	控制 Control	控制变量 Control variables	控制 Control	控制 Control
常数项 Constant	0.019	0.020^*	常数项 Constant	0.004	0.011
常数项 Constant	(0.012)	(0.009)	常数项 Constant	(?0.011)	(?0.01)
不可识别检验 Underidentification test	—	9.735^**	个体固定效应 Entity fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes
弱工具变量检验 Weak tool variable identification test	—	241.851[16.380]	时间固定效应 Time fixed effects	是Yes	是Yes
N	310	310	N	319	341
R²	0.744	0.457	R²	0.753	0.797
R²	0.744	0.457	调整R² Adjust R²	0.714	0.766