关键词: 日本落叶松, 实物期权法, 二项式模型, 均值回复过程

Abstract:

The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L. kaempferi pulpwood plantation in northern sub-tropical alpine area. Flexible rotation age and threshold price to different stand age of different site index plantation were developed. The result indicated that: first, the optimal rotation age of L. kaempferi plantation in site index 15,17, 19,21 were 25,23,21 and 19 a respectively as the current pulpwood price equals 500 yuan·m^-3, and the shortest rotation age were 23, 20,17 and 15 a when face to better price. Second, Wait option should be the optimum strategy in any pulpwood price level when the stand age lower than the shortest rotation age.

Key words: Larix kaempferi, real options approach, binomial model, mean reverting process