中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250256

林业科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (2): 15-24.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250256

• 前沿热点 • 上一篇

中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型

田惠玲¹,朱建华²,何潇¹,陈新云³,王冉⁴,肖文发²,雷相东^1,*()

1. 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所　北京 100091
2. 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所/国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室　北京 100091
3. 国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院　北京 100714
4. 河南省林业生态建设发展中心　郑州 450000

收稿日期:2025-04-27 修回日期:2025-06-16 出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-03-04
通讯作者: 雷相东 E-mail:xdlei@ifrit.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务费专项（CAFYBB2024QD001-08）；中国博士后科学基金“中国博士后创新人才支持计划项目”（BX20240415）。

Growth Model of Arbor Carbon Storage in Typical Forest Stands in the Mid-Subtropical Zone of China

Huiling Tian¹,Jianhua Zhu²,Xiao He¹,Xinyun Chen³,Ran Wang⁴,Wenfa Xiao²,Xiangdong Lei^1,*()

1. Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry　Beijing 100091
2. Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, National Forestry and Grassland Administration　Beijing 100091
3. Academy of Inventory and Planning, National Forestry and Grassland Administration　Beijing 100714
4. Henan Provincial Forestry Ecological Construction and Development Center　Zhengzhou 450000

Received:2025-04-27 Revised:2025-06-16 Online:2026-02-25 Published:2026-03-04
Contact: Xiangdong Lei E-mail:xdlei@ifrit.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 融合立地因子、林龄与林分密度效应，构建中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型，精准分析林分碳储量生长变化，为森林生长量精准估测、森林经营方案优化以及森林碳汇潜力预估等提供指导。方法: 以我国中亚热带典型森林类型为研究对象，利用森林资源连续清查的3.07万个3期乔木林固定样地调查数据，采用基于林分平均高生长的分级算法划分立地等级，以平均林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数等因子为解释变量，按区域、优势树种（组）构建不同林分起源碳储量生长模型，分析林分碳储量生长变化规律。结果: 1）中亚热带各林分平均高生长模型决定系数（R²）均达0.931及以上，树高总生长量随立地等级增加而增加，5个立地等级的高生长累积量水平接近等差数列，具有很好的分级结果。2）基于平均林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数的林分碳储量生长模型决定系数（R²）均达0.633及以上。不同林分起源碳储量生长模型的建模精度存在差异：对于针叶纯林，该模型在人工林中的拟合效果优于天然林；对于混交林，该模型在天然林中的拟合效果优于人工林；针叶树种比阔叶树种具有更好的拟合效果。3）各林分碳储量生长模型不同立地等级下林分碳储量的渐近值均呈a₁ > a₂ > a₃ > a₄ > a₅的趋势，且5个立地等级的林分碳储量接近等差数列。天然林每公顷林分碳储量极限值整体高于人工林，阔叶混交林在不同林分起源下均具有较高的林分碳储量。4）中立地等级条件下，人工林和天然林林分碳储量均随林龄增加而增大，并在近、成熟龄阶段开始趋于平稳。人工林林分碳储量的渐近值比天然林更早到达拐点林龄。结论: 本研究构建的各森林类型林分平均高生长模型和林分碳储量生长模型具有较好的拟合效果和较高的预估精度，含起源、林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数的林分碳储量生长模型可满足中亚热带区域主要树种（组）不同立地等级下林分碳储量随年龄动态变化预测的需要，还可用于编制该区域典型森林碳计量数表。

关键词: 高生长模型, 立地等级, 林分密度, 林分碳储量生长模型

Abstract:

Objective: Through integrating site factors, forest age, and stand density effects, a growth model of arbor carbon storage in typical forest stands in the mid-subtropical zone of China was constructed to accurately analyze growth dynamics in stand carbon storage, providing guidance for estimating forest carbon sequestration potential. Method: This study focused on typical forest types in the mid-subtropical zone of China. The survey data from 30 700 permanent forest plots in three continuous national forest inventories were collected. A site classification algorithm based on stand mean height growth was employed to categorize site class. With the stand mean age, site class, and stand density index as explanatory variables, stand carbon storage growth models were constructed under different forest origins (natural vs. planted) by region and dominant tree species (groups). The study further analyzed the growth dynamics of stand carbon storage. Result: 1) All mean height growth models for mid-subtropical forest stands achieved excellent goodness-of-fit, with R²≥0.931. The total height growth had a positive correlation with site class. The cumulative height growth across five site classes followed an approximately arithmetic sequence, indicating effective classification. 2) The stand carbon storage growth models based on site class, stand mean age and stand density index all reached satisfactory predictive accuracy (R²≥0.633). The model performance for different forest origins varied: for coniferous pure forest, the models showed better fit in plantations than natural forests, while for mixed forest, the models performed better in natural forests. Additionally, the models generally outperformed for coniferous species than broadleaved species. 3) All carbon storage models revealed that asymptotic values followed a decreasing trend (a₁>a₂>a₃>a₄>a₅) across site classes, with nearly constant differences between adjacent grades. Natural forests exhibited higher maximum carbon storage per hectare than plantations, and broadleaved mixed forests consistently demonstrated high carbon storage potential across all origins. 4) Under medium-quality site conditions, both plantation and natural forest carbon storage increased with stand age and tended to stabilize at near-mature and mature stages, though plantations reached their inflection points earlier than natural forests. Conclusion: The established stand mean height growth models and stand carbon storage growth models for various forest types demonstrate satisfactory fitting effect and high predictive accuracy. The developed stand carbon storage growth model, incorporating stand origin, stand age, site class, and stand density index, can effectively predict the dynamic changes of stand carbon storage with age for major tree species (groups) across different site classes in this region. Furthermore, this model can be applied to compile carbon accounting tables for typical forest types in the region.

Key words: high growth model, site class, stand density, stand carbon storage growth model

中图分类号:

S718.55

田惠玲,朱建华,何潇,陈新云,王冉,肖文发,雷相东. 中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型[J]. 林业科学, 2026, 62(2): 15-24.

Huiling Tian,Jianhua Zhu,Xiao He,Xinyun Chen,Ran Wang,Wenfa Xiao,Xiangdong Lei. Growth Model of Arbor Carbon Storage in Typical Forest Stands in the Mid-Subtropical Zone of China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(2): 15-24.

图/表 8

表1

表2

表3

图1

图2

表4

典型森林类型不同立地等级林分乔木碳储量生长模型的参数估计值及拟合优度"

起源 Origin	森林类型 Forest type	样本数 Sample size	参数估计值 Parameter estimates								评价指标 Evaluation indices
起源 Origin	森林类型 Forest type	样本数 Sample size	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	a₅	b₁	b₂	c	R²	RMSE	rRMSE（%）
人工林 Plantation	华山松 Pinus armandii	230	102.10	92.34	87.18	78.77	63.50	0.525 50	1.834 0	0.349 2	0.811 9	7.758	24.02
	马尾松 Pinus massoniana	1 622	119.40	107.80	89.28	77.61	61.68	0.202 10	1.187 0	0.528 0	0.768 9	9.751	30.86
	湿地松 Pinus elliottii	374	70.84	65.58	61.12	57.57	42.79	1.754 00	1.762 0	0.408 2	0.777 1	5.588	25.95
	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata	5 833	104.80	89.91	79.95	70.15	55.32	0.264 50	1.258 0	0.455 6	0.816 2	7.463	23.74
	柏木Cupressus funebris	631	52.09	54.93	50.29	47.63	44.87	0.938 70	1.359 0	0.366 9	0.695 6	6.274	19.55
	桉树 Eucalyptus spp.	302	51.53	47.39	38.04	28.04	26.26	2.538 00	1.130 0	0.531 7	0.758 4	5.659	28.48
	其他软阔类 Other soft broadleaf	269	64.81	59.33	49.34	45.39	37.53	1.764 00	1.002 0	0.701 9	0.656 2	10.02	34.00
	针叶混交林 Mixed coniferous	1 127	79.44	74.11	70.02	62.21	54.20	0.430 20	1.510 0	0.313 8	0.784 2	6.659	19.50
	阔叶混交林 Mixed broadleaf	355	110.10	96.48	85.34	76.64	56.96	0.432 20	1.218 0	0.552 4	0.670 9	11.270	42.79
	针阔混交林 Mixed coniferous and broadleaf	1 141	129.10	115.50	99.41	91.16	70.14	0.177 60	1.154 0	0.482 3	0.712 5	10.510	32.47
天然林 Natural forest	马尾松 Pinus massoniana	4 877	128.10	116.70	100.9	85.98	70.71	0.154 30	1.111 0	0.562 0	0.748 9	9.352	30.03
	高山松 Pinus densata	112	123.80	103.40	79.90	72.34	53.46	0.277 40	1.214 0	0.449 6	0.906 1	7.423	14.06
	杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata	1 508	76.05	71.85	64.18	56.45	48.54	0.268 30	1.070 0	0.529 6	0.795 2	6.021	24.71
	柏木 Cupressus funebris	554	47.80	46.77	43.61	39.75	33.74	0.584 40	0.931 9	0.534 6	0.633 0	7.196	22.26
	栎类 Quercus spp.	1 773	249.60	223.50	205.70	195.10	169.8	0.144 60	1.336 0	0.633 9	0.762 4	18.890	41.15
	其他硬阔类 Other hard broadleaf	847	262.60	230.10	219.50	187.90	174.30	0.060 45	1.407 0	0.442 4	0.768 0	14.170	31.52
	针叶混交林 Mixed coniferous	1 704	83.02	79.02	73.59	67.07	60.68	0.248 00	1.284 0	0.377 3	0.792 6	5.898	18.21
	阔叶混交林 Mixed broadleaf	8 290	233.50	207.00	181.70	162.90	139.40	0.096 58	0.992 7	0.707 6	0.729 5	15.560	37.21
	针阔混交林 Mixed coniferous and broadleaf	3 385	130.90	119.00	108.70	95.32	83.49	0.166 60	1.075 0	0.558 8	0.733 8	9.290	27.39

表4

图3

图4

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起源Origin	变量Variables	平均值Mean	最小值Min.	最大值Max.	标准差SD
人工林 Plantation	林分平均年龄Stand mean age (A)/a	19.4	5	68	9.6
	林分平均高Stand mean height (H)/m	9.2	1.3	26	3.3
	平均胸径Mean diameter (D_g)/cm	11.0	7.4	26.1	2.7
	林分密度指数Stand density index (SDI)/(tree·hm^?2)	639.5	43.1	3 226.1	398.0
	林分公顷蓄积量Stand stock volume/(m³·hm^?2)	74.5	0.1	595.9	63.1
	林分碳储量Stand carbon storage/(t·hm^?2)	31.1	0.2	116.1	17. 6
天然林 Natural forest	林分平均年龄Stand mean age (A)/a	26.3	5	120	13.7
	林分平均高Stand mean height (H)/m	9.3	1.3	28	3.1
	平均胸径Mean diameter (D_g)/cm	11.1	7.6	38	3.0
	林分密度指数Stand density index (SDI)/(tree·hm^?2)	554. 5	45.1	2 410. 6	312.8
	林分公顷蓄积量Stand stock volume/(m³·hm^?2)	76.5	0.3	567.9	62.4
	林分碳储量Stand carbon storage/(t·hm^?2)	36.8	0.6	261.1	25.7

因子Factor	划分条件Classification criteria
海拔Elevation	200 m一个等级 A class per 200 m
坡度Slope	10°一个等级 A class per 10°
坡向Aspect	北坡 North；东北坡 Northeast；东坡 East；东南坡Southeast；南坡 South；西南坡 Southwest；西坡 West；西北坡 Northwest；无坡向 No aspect
坡位Slope position	脊部 Ridge；上坡 Upper；中坡 Middle；下坡 Lower；山谷（或山洼） Valley；平地 Flat
土层厚度Soil depth	20 cm一个等级 A class per 20 cm
腐殖层厚度Humus depth	薄Thin：<2 cm；中Moderate：2～5 cm；厚Thick：>5 cm

起源 Origin	森林类型 Forest type	参数估计值 Parameter estimates							评价指标 Evaluation indices
起源 Origin	森林类型 Forest type	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	a₅	b	c	R²	RMSE	rRMSE（%）
人工林 Plantation	华山松 Pinus armandii	16.5	13.0	10.5	7.70	5.01	0.050 00	0.762	0.955	0.691	8.46
	马尾松 Pinus massoniana	44.6	34.7	27.6	21.30	14.50	0.007 00	0.589	0.958	0.760	7.84
	湿地松 Pinus elliottii	20.9	16.4	13.6	11.30	8.04	0.057 70	1.160	0.967	0.584	7.07
	杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata	22.4	17.5	13.8	10.70	7.42	0.043 40	0.790	0.953	0.707	7.93
	柏木Cupressus funebris	17.0	13.5	10.9	8.70	6.42	0.097 50	1.370	0.932	0.704	7.38
	桉树 Eucalyptus spp.	18.8	15.0	11.6	8.72	5.72	0.467 00	1.300	0.950	0.863	7.99
	其他软阔类 Other soft broadleaf	22.6	17.0	13.1	10.20	6.74	0.160 00	1.380	0.952	0.911	8.87
	针叶混交林 Mixed coniferous	18.7	14.9	12.2	9.75	7.19	0.052 30	0.757	0.950	0.663	7.00
	阔叶混交林 Mixed broadleaf	17.7	13.5	10.9	8.22	5.69	0.175 00	1.570	0.949	0.801	8.62
	针阔混交林 Mixed coniferous and broadleaf	23.3	18.1	14.6	11.50	7.86	0.014 00	0.365	0.931	0.736	8.29
天然林 Natural forest	马尾松 Pinus massoniana	44.3	34.6	27.6	21.20	14.70	0.007 79	0.592	0.944	0.884	8.61
	高山松 Pinus densata	23.0	17.5	12.4	8.93	4.70	0.044 10	1.220	0.979	0.837	6.92
	杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata	17.8	14.1	11.3	8.90	6.31	0.046 00	0.659	0.946	0.629	7.47
	柏木 Cupressus funebris	15.0	12.5	10.4	8.49	6.06	0.091 30	1.720	0.942	0.672	6.64
	栎类 Quercus spp.	23.4	17.3	13.7	10.80	7.56	0.013 80	0.448	0.952	0.800	8.85
	其他硬阔类 Other hard broadleaf	24.4	18.2	14.5	11.30	8.17	0.005 85	0.277	0.940	0.806	8.68
	针叶混交林 Mixed coniferous	31.6	24.2	19.4	15.30	10.90	0.010 90	0.529	0.943	0.717	7.51
	阔叶混交林 Mixed broadleaf	27.4	20.9	16.8	13.40	9.89	0.011 90	0.485	0.945	0.688	7.59
	针阔混交林 Mixed coniferous and broadleaf	35.4	27.0	21.1	16.50	12.00	0.008 31	0.521	0.943	0.687	7.63

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中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型

Growth Model of Arbor Carbon Storage in Typical Forest Stands in the Mid-Subtropical Zone of China

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