林业科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (1): 74-89.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20220730
• 前沿与重点: 林业促进共同富裕的理论和实践 • 上一篇 下一篇
潘丹1,罗璐薏1,余异1,孔凡斌2,3,*
收稿日期:
2022-11-10
出版日期:
2023-01-25
发布日期:
2023-02-24
通讯作者:
孔凡斌
基金资助:
Dan Pan1,Luyi Luo1,Yi Yu1,Fanbin Kong2,3,*
Received:
2022-11-10
Online:
2023-01-25
Published:
2023-02-24
Contact:
Fanbin Kong
摘要:
目的: 在推进共同富裕的中国式现代化宏伟目标背景下, 探究森林资源培育工程的实施对革命老区县域城乡收入差距的影响及其作用机制, 为新时代新征程中推动革命老区及其他欠发达地区的共同富裕和中国式现代化道路提供支持参考。方法: 基于2008—2019年中国28省650个革命老区的县级面板数据, 运用空间杜宾模型分析革命老区县森林资源培育对城乡收入差距的影响效应, 并从收入效应和就业效应两个角度分析其影响机制。结果: 1) 森林资源培育工程对革命老区本地区、相邻地区及整体地区的城乡收入差距均为扩大作用。具体而言, 表征森林资源培育工程的造林面积每上升1%, 会导致革命老区本地区、相邻地区及整体地区的城乡收入差距分别扩大0.035、0.200和0.236。2)森林资源培育工程主要是通过降低革命老区农村居民收入和提高城镇居民收入, 从而扩大了整体城乡收入差距。3)机制分析结果表明, 由于革命老区生态保护、人力资本、地理区位等方面的限制, 森林资源培育工程的收入效应和就业效应释放不明显, 使革命老区陷入"森林资源丰富而经济增长缓慢"的"森林资源诅咒"困境, 从而增大其城乡收入差距。具体而言, 森林资源培育工程对革命老区旅游收入没有影响, 收入效应不显著; 同时, 森林资源培育工程的实施只能带动革命老区农民就业于劳动边际报酬较低的第一产业, 而未能提高边际报酬较高的第二和第三产业就业, 甚至挤出了第二和第三产业, 就业效应不明显。结论: 应从森林保护和区域产业发展相结合、推动地区间联合进行森林资源培育、加强林业和其他产业的协调发展等方面发力, 将革命老区森林资源的"绿水青山"优势有效地转变为"金山银山"的经济优势, 利用丰富的森林资源降低革命老区城乡收入差距。
中图分类号:
潘丹,罗璐薏,余异,孔凡斌. 森林资源培育工程对革命老区县域城乡收入差距的影响[J]. 林业科学, 2023, 59(1): 74-89.
Dan Pan,Luyi Luo,Yi Yu,Fanbin Kong. Influence of Forest Resource Development Project on the Urban-Rural Income Gap in Old Revolutionary Regions[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2023, 59(1): 74-89.
表1
变量的描述性统计特征"
变量名称 | 变量解释 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
Variables | Variable description | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
被解释变量 Explained variables | |||||
城乡收入差距 Urban-rural income gap | 城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均可支配收入 Urban per capita disposable income/rural per capita disposable income | 2.662 | 1.095 | 0.400 | 9.930 |
核心解释变量Key explanatory variables | |||||
森林资源培育工程 Forest Resources Cultivation Project | 造林面积的对数值 Logarithm of afforestation area | 7.448 | 1.113 | 0.000 | 12.265 |
控制变量Control variables | |||||
农业机械化水平 Agricultural mechanization level | 农业机械总动力的对数值 Logarithm of the total power of agricultural mechanization | 3.109 | 0.857 | 0.000 | 5.869 |
农业发展水平 Agricultural development level | 第一产业增加值与GDP的比值 The value added of the primary sector as a share of GDP | 0.231 | 0.096 | 0.000 | 0.613 |
工业发展水平 Industry level | 第二产业增加值与GDP的比值 The value added of the secondary sector as a share of GDP | 0.410 | 0.141 | 0.038 | 0.904 |
县城规模 County size | 人口数量的对数值 Logarithm of the total population in a county | 3.612 | 0.784 | 0.916 | 5.434 |
表2
空间计量模型设定检验①"
被解释变量 Explained variables | 统计量 Statiscal quantity | LM检验 LM test | LR检验 LR test | Wald检验 Wald test | |||||
LM value | P-value | LR value | P-value | Wald value | P-value | ||||
城乡收入差距 Urban-rural income gap | 空间滞后估计 Spatial lag estimation | 12.235*** | 0.000 | 49.770*** | 0.000 | 48.700*** | 0.000 | ||
空间误差估计 Spatial error estimation | 361.279*** | 0.000 | 194.600*** | 0.000 | 82.650*** | 0.000 |
表3
SDM模型估计结果:森林资源培育工程对革命老区县域城乡收入差距的影响①"
变量 Variables | 空间固定效应模型 Spatial fixed effects model | 时间固定效应模型 Time fixed effect model | 时空固定效应模型 Space-time fixed effect mode |
森林资源培育工程Forest resources cultivation project | -0.005(0.005) | 0.055***(0.007) | 0.012***(0.005) |
农业机械化水平Agricultural mechanization level | -0.295***(0.016) | -0.156***(0.012) | -0.230***(0.017) |
农业发展水平Agricultural development level | -2.073***(0.115) | -0.008(0.114) | -0.547***(0.155) |
工业发展水平Industry level | 0.656***(0.071) | -0.862***(0.080) | 0.170*(0.091) |
县城规模County size | -0.041(0.037) | -0.012(0.013) | -0.108***(0.039) |
森林资源培育工程的空间交互效应 Spatial interaction effect of forest resources cultivation project | 0.037***(0.007) | 0.035***(0.005) | 0.053***(0.008) |
城乡收入差距的空间交互效应 Spatial interaction effect of urban-rural income gap | 0.780(0.005) | 0.641***(0.008) | 0.730***(0.007) |
R2 | 0.236 | 0.277 | 0.446 |
表4
空间效应分解结果:森林资源培育工程对革命老区县域城乡收入差距的影响①"
变量 Variables | 直接效应 Direct effects | 间接效应 Indirect effects | 总效应 Total effects |
森林资源培育工程Forest resources cultivation project | 0.035***(0.005) | 0.200***(0.021) | 0.236***(0.024) |
农业机械化水平Agricultural mechanization level | -0.294***(0.018) | -0.540***(0.033) | -0.834***(0.051) |
农业发展水平Agricultural development level | -0.710***(0.210) | -1.303***(0.383) | -2.014***(0.592) |
工业发展水平Industry level | 0.229*(0.122) | 0.419*(0.222) | 0.648*(0.343) |
县城规模County size | -0.148**(0.055) | -0.271**(0.107) | -0.418**(0.165) |
表5
SDM模型估计结果:森林资源培育工程对农村和城镇居民收入的影响①"
变量 Variables | 农村居民收入 Rural residents’ income | 城镇居民收入 Urban household income |
总效应Total effects | -0.021***(0.037) | 0.043***(0.008) |
直接效应Direct effects | -0.008***(0.002) | 0.002(0.002) |
间接效应Indirect effects | -0.013***(0.003) | 0.041***(0.007) |
控制变量Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes |
R2 | 0.160 | 0.232 |
表6
稳健性检验结果①"
变量名称 Variables | 泰尔指数 Theil index | 地理距离空间权重矩阵 Geographical distance spatial weighting matrix | 将森林资源培育工程滞后一期处理 Lag the forest resources cultivation project for one phase |
森林资源培育工程Forest resources cultivation project | 0.004***(0.001) | 0.030***(0.006) | 0.020***(0.006) |
森林资源培育工程的空间交互效应 Spatial interaction effect of forest resources cultivation project | 0.004***(0.000) | -0.223***(0.044) | 0.035***(0.008 |
城乡收入差距的空间交互效应 Spatial interaction effect of urban-rural income gap | 0.548***(0.001) | 2.438***(0.020) | 0.739***(0.006) |
控制变量Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
直接效应Direct effects | 0.005***(0.001) | 0.028***(0.006) | 0.039***(0.006) |
间接效应Indirect effect | 0.011***(0.001) | 0.107***(0.027) | 0.167***(0.023) |
总效应Total effects | 0.016***(0.001) | 0.134***(0.280) | 0.206***(0.027) |
R2 | 0.171 | 0.026 | 0.269 |
表7
机制分析结果"
项目Item | 机制一:收入效应 Mechanism 1 : Income effect | 机制二:就业效应 Mechanism 2 : Employment effect | |||
旅游收入 Tourist income | 第一产业就业人数 Employment in the primary industry | 第二产业就业人数 Employment in the secondary industry | 第三产业就业人数 Employment in tertiary industry | ||
森林资源培育工程Forest resources cultivation project | -0.011(0.013) | 0.052***(0.004) | -0.008(0.006) | -0.032***(0.008) | |
控制变量 Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |
时间效应Time effect | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |
地区效应Regional effect | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |
常数项Constant | 13.286***(0.155) | -1.303***(0.048) | 7.256***(0.082) | 7.745***(0.094) | |
观测值Observation | 5 060 | 7 800 | 7 800 | 7 800 | |
R2 | 0.217 | 0.738 | 0.674 | 0.527 |
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