关键词: 气候变化, 森林火险, 火险期, 西南地区

Abstract:

Global Climate Change has a rapid and far-reaching impact on fire activities in forests. This paper made use of regional climate models’output and the calculated Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) to analysis the changes on fire danger and fire season in future periods under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios on the scale of 50 km × 50 km. The results would provide a reference for future fire management planning in the study area. China’s regional climate for the period (1961—2100) under SRES A2 and B2 was modeled from a regional climate model system (PRECIS). The results were interpolated to 1 km×1 km scale by using ANUSPLIN software. The results showed that: PRECIS model had a good ability to simulate temperature and precipitation of the study area in baseline period. Spatial distribution of the temperature and precipitation was basically consistent with the observed values. Compared with baseline period, the FWI values in fire season (from November to the next May) for Southeast China will increase an average of 1.66 and 1.40 in 2040s under scenario A2 and B2 respectively. Meanwhile the average FWI ratios would increase by an average of 1.22 and 1.24 times under scenario A2 and B2 respectively,and range 1.1-1.5 times in most areas of the region. The change of FWI ratios suggested that the potential burned areas would increase by 22% and 24% than those in baseline period. Under the two scenarios the fire season would prolong significantly. In 2040s the total days with high,very high and extreme high fire danger rating would increase 17 and 13 days under scenarios A2 and B2,respectively. It is suggested to strengthen early warning,fire monitoring and fuel management in southwest China for preparing for the climate change.

Key words: climate change, fire danger, fire season, southwest region