关键词: 长白落叶松, 工业人工林, 复合轮伐, 收获量, 风险分析

Abstract: Based on the basic rotation age derive from quantity maturity,technological maturity and economic maturity,by mean of the concept of pulp plantation complex rotation,the technique keywords of two kinds of complex rotation model about Larix olgensis industrial plantation were accepted,the wood harvest and economic harvest were provided,the difference between complex rotation model and single rotation model was compared,and danger degree of complex rotation was evaluated.It shows that the economic wood volume,commercial wood volume and economic value of complex rotation model 1 is 28.287 2(m³·hm^-2,) 28.173 4 m³·hm^-2 and 4 906.67 yuan·hm^-2 more than that of two times basic rotation respectively,increase rate is 10.34%,10.04% and 4.50% respectively.The economic wood volume,commercial wood volume and economic value of complex rotation model 2 is 20.916 7 m³·hm^-2,20.763 5 m³hm^-2 and 739.56 yuan·hm^-2 more than that of two times basic rotation respectively,increase rate is 7.36%,7.61% and 0.63% respectively.The danger of complex rotation model is relative to the bank rate,remained superior trees rate and wood price.Under the condition of r ank year rate,10% remained superior trees,economic wood price of basic rotation model and 90% complex rotation cut trees is x,the price of 10% remained trees is y,for complex rotation model 1,only when(y>0.335 6) [1+(1+r)¹⁸x、for complex rotation model 2,only when y>(0.367 3) [1+(1+r)²¹x,can economic harvest of complex rotation model surpass that of basic rotation model.

Key words: Larix olgensis, industrial plantation, complex rotation, harvest, danger analysis