林业科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (10): 93-106.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20260232
收稿日期:2026-04-20
修回日期:2026-07-22
出版日期:2026-10-10
发布日期:2026-10-17
通讯作者:
程宝栋
E-mail:baodongcheng@163.com
基金资助:
Lingqian Kong1,Yuxiu Yao2,Changjie Song3,Baodong Cheng4,*(
)
Received:2026-04-20
Revised:2026-07-22
Online:2026-10-10
Published:2026-10-17
Contact:
Baodong Cheng
E-mail:baodongcheng@163.com
摘要:
目的: 实证考察国家公园体制试点建设对生物多样性的因果效应及其作用机制,回应国家公园试点能否有效促进生物多样性保护的争议,为完善国家公园空间布局与生物多样性保护政策体系提供科学依据。方法: 利用中国观鸟数据构建鸟类丰富度指标,基于2011—2023年266个地级及以上城市相关数据,采用双重差分法(DID)系统评估国家公园体制试点建设对鸟类生物多样性的影响。使用PSM-DID缓解样本选择偏差,通过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和排除同期相关政策干扰,验证结果稳健性。异质性分析则从地理区位、鸟类濒危程度、迁徙习性3个维度展开。通过机制分析识别出栖息地保护质量、政府环境治理和公众环保意识3条传导路径。通过构建城市层面的邻接关系,检验国家公园试点的空间溢出效应。结果: 1) 国家公园体制试点建设对鸟类生物多样性的影响在1%水平上显著为正。经PSM-DID、安慰剂检验以及排除同期政策干扰后,上述结果保持稳健。2) 异质性分析发现,在国家公园体制试点建设对鸟类生物多样性的影响中,中西部地区的促进效应显著强于东部地区,非濒危鸟类种群的提升幅度大于濒危鸟类,留鸟群落的多样性改善效果优于候鸟群落。3) 机制分析表明,国家公园体制试点建设通过提高森林覆盖率与湿地质量、强化地方政府环境治理责任、提升公众环保意识3条渠道促进生物多样性保护。4) 拓展性分析发现,国家公园体制试点建设具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,能有效带动周边相邻城市的鸟类多样性改善。结论: 国家公园体制试点建设是促进鸟类生物多样性保护的有效路径。面向深化推进阶段,应着力优化国家公园的空间布局体系,构建栖息地保护、政府治理与公众参与三维协同的长效驱动机制。在区域战略上,宜优先在中西部地区布局新建园区,并针对濒危物种与候鸟群落制定差异化专项保护方案。同时,需打破行政边界壁垒,构建跨区域的生态廊道协同保护网络,以充分释放国家公园试点的空间溢出效应,实现保护绩效的系统性提升。
中图分类号:
孔令乾,姚玉秀,宋长杰,程宝栋. 国家公园建设的生物多样性保护效应——基于中国观鸟数据的考察[J]. 林业科学, 2026, 62(10): 93-106.
Lingqian Kong,Yuxiu Yao,Changjie Song,Baodong Cheng. Impacts of National Park Construction on Biodiversity: An Investigation Based on Birding Data in China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(10): 93-106.
表1
变量描述性统计"
| 变量 Variables | 样本量 Sample size | 平均值 Mean | 标准差 Standard deviation | 最小值 Min. | 最大值 Max. |
| 生物多样性 Biodiversity | 2 680 | –0.107 | 1.074 | ?4.629 | 4.578 |
| 政府干预程度 Government intervention level | 2 759 | 15.151 | 0.763 | 12.433 | 18.384 |
| 金融发展水平 Financial development level | 2 759 | 2.853 | 1.394 | 0.502 | 14.420 |
| 文化设施水平 Cultural facilities level | 2 759 | 7.664 | 1.161 | 0.002 | 19.114 |
| 产业结构水平 Industrial structure level | 2 759 | 0.067 | 0.044 | 0 | 0.749 |
| 基础设施水平 Infrastructure level | 2 759 | 7.748 | 1.488 | 3.378 | 11.273 |
| 经济发展水平 Economic development level | 2 759 | 6.366 | 3.583 | 1.409 | 18.327 |
| 平均坡度 Average slope | 2 620 | 11.026 | 5.691 | 1.592 | 27.139 |
| 平均高程 Average elevation | 2 620 | 506.381 | 597.488 | 7.337 | 3 128.234 |
表3
稳健性检验和内生性分析①"
| 变量Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| 倾向得分匹配 PSM-DID | 魅力城市 Attractive city | 低碳城市 Low-carbon city | 生态文明示范区 Demonstration zone | 新冠疫情 COVID-19 | |
| 国家公园体制试点 National park system pilot | 0.533** (0.209) | 0.511*** (0.113) | 0.587*** (0.153) | 0.586*** (0.136) | 0.526*** (0.121) |
| 控制变量 Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
| 时间固定效应 Time fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
| 城市固定效应 City fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes |
| 观测值 Observations | 438 | 2 384 | 1 831 | 1 972 | 1 498 |
| R2 | 0.645 | 0.371 | 0.381 | 0.366 | 0.408 |
表4
识别策略与模型设定的再验证和内生性分析①"
| 变量Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |||
| 更换对照组 Alternative control group | 多期DID Staggered DID | Logit模型 Logit model | 预期效应 Expected effect | ||||
| 国家公园体制试点 National park system pilot | 0.309** (0.151) | 0.409*** (0.104) | 0.651** (0.129) | 0.510*** (0.121) | |||
| 控制变量 Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||
| 时间固定效应 Time fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||
| 城市固定效应 City fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||
| 观测值 Observations | 492 | 2 518 | 1 991 | 2 518 | |||
| R2 | 0.443 | 0.369 | 0.444 | 0.370 |
表5
异质性分析①"
| 变量Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |||||
| 东部地区 Eastern | 中西部地区 Central and western | 非濒危鸟类 Non-endangered bird species | 濒危鸟类 Endangered bird species | 留鸟 Resident birds | 候鸟 Migratory birds | ||||||
| 国家公园体制试点 National park system pilot | 0.362* (0.193) | 0.584*** (0.130) | 0.262** (0.130) | ?0.104 (0.181) | 0.269** (0.118) | ?0.195 (0.157) | |||||
| 控制变量 Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||||
| 时间固定效应 Time fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||||
| 城市固定效应 City fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | |||||
| 观测值 Observations | 1 078 | 1 440 | 2 533 | 2 019 | 2 421 | 2 170 | |||||
| R2 | 0.380 | 0.386 | 0.367 | 0.417 | 0.387 | 0.388 |
表6
机制检验和空间溢出效应检验①"
| 变量Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | ||||
| 森林质量 Forest quality | 湿地质量 Wetland quality | 政府环境治理 Government environmental governance | 公众环保意识 Public environmental awareness | 鸟类丰富度 Bird species richness | |||||
| 国家公园体制试点 National park system pilot | 0.016** (0.009) | 0.012* (0.007) | 0.202* (0.105) | 0.096** (0.043) | — | ||||
| 邻接城市Adjacent cities | — | — | — | — | 0.291** (0.122) | ||||
| 控制变量Control variables | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | ||||
| 时间固定效应Time fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | ||||
| 城市固定效应City fixed effects | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | 是Yes | ||||
| 观测值Observations | 1 801 | 2 592 | 1 936 | 2 510 | 2 309 | ||||
| R2 | 0.991 | 0.919 | 0.876 | 0.940 | 0.370 |
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