新一轮集体林权制度改革对中国木质林产品出口边际增长的影响分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240475

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate the mechanisms through which the new round of collective forest tenure reform (hereinafter referred to as“new forest reform”) affects the marginal growth of China’s wood-based forest product exports, thereby providing scientific evidence for deepening forest tenure reform and promoting the high-quality development of forest product trade. Method: Drawing on six-digit bilateral trade data from China Customs and the United Nations Trade Database from 2000 to 2022, this study employs a export ternary margins decomposition method to analyze export growth and constructs a year-province-destination country panel dataset. Taking the new forest reform as a quasi-natural experiment and using manufacturing as a control group, the study applies a double machine (DML) approach to evaluate the impact of the reform on the marginal growth of wood-based forest product exports. Result: 1) An increase in domestic timber supply substitutes for imported timber, with demand for imported timber being significantly more elastic than for domestic timber. 2) The new forest reform significantly increases the export share, extensive margin, and quantity margin of wood-based forest products, while significantly reducing the price margin. 3) The reform promotes marginal export growth by enhancing domestic timber supply and enabling domestic timber supply and enabling substitution of imports with domestic timber. 4) In terms of heterogeneity, the reform has a stronger positive effect on capital- and technology-intensive wood-based product exports compared to labor-intensive products, and its impact is more pronounced in southern forest regions than in non-southern regions. Conclusion: The new forest reform has a significant incentivizing effect on the forestry industry, effectively driving the marginal growth of wood-based forest product exports, reducing dependence on external timber resources, and strengthening national timber security. In the future, it is essential to enhance top-level design, leveraging the new forest reform to better coordinate natural resource management, industrial policies, and trade policies, thereby advancing the high-quality development of forestry.

Key words: new round of collective forest tenure reform, wood forest products, export ternary margins, collective forest, double machine learning

CLC Number:

S7-9
F326.20

Zhenghuang Shi,fangmiao Hou,Haokun Zhang,Guoxing Huang. Analysis of the Impact of the New Round of Collective Forest Tenure Reform on the Growth of Export Margins of China’s Wood-Based Forest Product[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(9): 211-222.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Table 1

Descriptive statistics"

变量Variable	样本量 Sample size	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
新林改New forest reform	119 341	0.366	0.482	0.000	1.000
确权率Confirmation rate	31 517	90.717	16.052	4.717	100
份额Share	119 341	0.006	0.016	0.000	0.640
广度边际Extensive margin	119 341	0.200	0.170	0.000	0.987
数量边际Quantity margin	119 341	0.018	0.046	0.000	0.999
价格边际Price margin	119 341	3.612	10.736	0.010	1 307.016
进口国GDP Importing country’s GDP/10⁸ $	119 341	5 794.448	19 320.35	1.040	257 000.000
进口国人口Importing country’s population/10⁴ people	119 341	4 806.440	13 306.160	1.779	142 862.766
进口国对外开放度Importing country’s openness (%)	119 341	66.896	40.611	11.147	420.682
进口国森林覆盖率Importing country’s forest coverage rate (%)	119 341	31.806	22.660	0.008	98.313
进口国汇率Exchange rate	119 341	172.430	1 183.379	0.007	42 000.000
省份GDP Province’s GDP/10⁸ yuan	119 341	26 350.560	23 626.200	139.200	129118.6
省份对外开放度 Province’s openness (%)	119 341	41.620	38.941	0.008	160.995
省份林业（制造业）产值 Province’s forestry (no forestry) output value/10⁸ yuan	119 341	9 090.725	8 747.622	6.960	48 593.600
省份公路里程Province’s highway mileage/km	119 341	13.948	8.386	0.610	39.890
省份人口Province’s population/10⁴ people	119 341	5 226.525	2 877.615	264.000	12 684.000
国产材产量Domestic timber production/10⁴ m³	111 826	290.380	435.575	0.040	3 602.000
进口材数量External wood import volume/10⁴ m³	111 454	192.959	252.759	0.000	1 324.584
国产材平均价格Average price of domestic timber/ (yuan·m^?3)	97 049	708.669	198.614	9.000	1 500.000
进口材平均价格Average price of foreign timber/10⁸ yuan	109 002	1 583.403	1 165.242	318.786	9 996.251
林业投资额Forestry investment/10⁸ yuan	115 068	0.534	0.785	0.000	8.046
木材需求量Wood demand/10⁴ m³	118 324	453.734	485.558	0.060	3 666.118
进口材依赖程度Degree of dependence on external wood resources	118 324	0.377	0.357	0.000	1.000

Table 1

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Table 6

Table 7

References 0

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变量 Variable	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材数量 Import timber quantity	未加入控制变量二次方 Without inclusion of squared terms of control variables				加入控制变量二次方 With inclusion of squared terms of control variables
变量 Variable	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材数量 Import timber quantity	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
进口材价格 Import timber price	0.026^***	?1.511^***
进口材价格 Import timber price	（0.002）	（0.008）
国内木材价格 Domestic timber price	?0.130^***	0.434^***
国内木材价格 Domestic timber price	（0.004）	（0.021）
新林改 New forest reform			0.233^***	0.123^***	0.155^***	?0.041^***	0.220^***	0.133^***	0.134^***	?0.040^***
新林改 New forest reform			（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定 Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	90 547	90 611	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341

变量 Variable	重设分割比例Reset the segmentation ratio				多维固定效应模型Multidimensional fixed effects model
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.220^***	0.133^***	0.135^***	?0.041^***	0.232^***	0.136^***	0.132^***	?0.036^**
新林改 New forest reform	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.015）	（0.022）	（0.013）	（0.024）	（0.014）
控制变量Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341	119 341

变量 Variable	调整研究样本Adjustment of research samples				更换被解释变量Replacement of the explained variable
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.171^***	0.099^***	0.115^***	?0.050^***
新林改 New forest reform	（0.021）	（0.013）	（0.025）	（0.015）
确权率Confirmation rate					0.308^***	0.061^**	0.216^***	?0.038^**
确权率Confirmation rate					（0.022）	（0.013）	（0.028）	（0.016）
控制变量Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	113746	113746	113746	113746	30281	30281	30281	30281

变量 Variable	林业投资额 Forestry investment	国产材产量 Domestic timber production	进口材依赖程度 Degree of dependence on external wood resources
新林改 New forest reform	0.039^***	0.270^***	?0.104^***
新林改 New forest reform	（0.009）	（0.007）	（0.002）
控制变量 Control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	115 068	110 826	118 324

变量 Variable	南方林区Southern forest region				非南方林区Non-southern forest region
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.265^***	0.127^***	0.165^***	?0.046^**	0.178^***	0.155^***	0.039	?0.158
新林改 New forest reform	（0.038）	（0.023）	（0.041）	（0.020）	（0.027）	（0.015）	（0.023）	（0.037）
控制变量一次项 Control variables a term	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	45 595	45 595	45 595	45 595	73 746	73 746	73 746	73 746

Analysis of the Impact of the New Round of Collective Forest Tenure Reform on the Growth of Export Margins of China’s Wood-Based Forest Product

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变量 Variable	劳动密集型Labor-intensive				资本技术密集型Capital and technology-intensive
变量 Variable	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin	份额 Share	广度边际 Extensive margin	数量边际 Quantity margin	价格边际 Price margin
新林改 New forest reform	0.134^***	0.130^***	0.118^***	?0.070^***	0.209^***	0.160^***	0.194^***	?0.121^***
新林改 New forest reform	（0.020）	（0.015）	（0.028）	（0.020）	（0.026）	（0.014）	（0.024）	（0.011）
控制变量一次项 Control variables a term	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
控制变量二次方 Squared terms of control variables	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
年份固定Year fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
省份固定Province fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
国家固定Country fixed	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes	是Yes
样本量Sample size	104 025	104 025	104 025	104 025	113 119	113 119	113 119	113 119

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