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Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 160-170.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20190417

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MaxEnt-Based Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution and Habitat Suitability Analysis for Dothistroma pini in China

Wang Xiaowei, Ren Xueyan, Liang Yingmei   

  1. College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University Museum of Beijing Forestry University Beijing 100083
  • Received:2018-06-07 Revised:2018-12-26 Online:2019-04-25 Published:2019-04-30

Abstract: [Objective]The objective of the research is to predict the potential geographical distributions of Dothistroma pini under the climate change, and to study the effects of climatic factors on the geographical distribution.[Method] Based on the known distribution areas of D. pini and related climate data, combined with the CCSM4 climate model data released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for future climate change scenarios, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential suitable geographical distributions of D. pini.[Result]The results showed that the principal geographical distribution areas of D. pini were Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, northeastern Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The analysis of Jackknife showed that factors such as precipitation in June, average highest temperature in November and precipitation in the coldest quarter had important influences on the geographical distribution areas of D. pini. Under different scenarios of climate change in the future, the total area of suitable geographical distributions is on the rise, with an increase range of 15.66% to 18.29%. The suitable distribution areas of each grade in northern Shandong, Hebei and Shanxi, central and southern Shaanxi, southeastern Gansu, northern and southern Sichuan, western liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia increased, and the appropriate grade increased.[Conclusion] The MaxEnt model is proved high reliability to determine the geographic distribution range of D. pini. Under different scenarios of climate change in the future, the principal geographical distribution areas in border area of Yunnan and Sichuan, northeast three provinces and northeast Inner Mongolia show a trend of fragmented. The centroid suitable for the D. pini distribution tends to spread from northeast to north and northwest in China.

Key words: Dothistroma pini, geographic distribution, MaxEnt model, climate change, potential geographical distribution

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