Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data of recent 10 years in 21 cities/counties in China, which cover 11 epidemic area and 10 non-epidemic area of Gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, a climate characteristic pattern of the 21 cities/counties was drawn based on the key meteorological factors. Combined with distribution of the host plants in Shanghai City, the adaptability of Gypsy moth was analyzed. Furthermore, a distribution prediction model of Gypsy moth in China was established using the discriminant analysis techniques. The prediction accuracy of the model was 100%. The prediction model displays that Shanghai City possesses the climatic condition for outbreak of Gypsy moth according to the climate characteristic pattern, and host plant analysis.

Key words: Lymantria dispar, distribution, prediction model, adaptability, Shanghai