Abstract:

According to grey system theory and method, a forecasting and analysis method for the trend of forest fire disaster area(FFDA)was studied. Jiangxi Province being taken as example, the GM (1, 1) forecasting models were built; the grey forecasting curve and grey forecasting interval were obtained; and the situation of forest fire disaster in the province till 2010 was forecasted and analysed, in order to provide sound bases for making decisions about forest protection. In addition, the analysis of forecasting accuracy and comparison with regression method showed that the method of this paper can meet the accuracy demand and is obviously better than white forecasting method.

Key words: Forest fire, Grey forecasting model, Grey interval