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25 September 1999, Volume 35 Issue 5
OBSERVATION ON CHROMOSOMES OF GINKGO BILOBA BY USING MATERIALS RATHER THAN ROOT-TIP CELLS
Yumei Wang,Maoxue Li,Ruilin You
1999, 35(5):  2-4. 
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The sex of anyone of seeds and seedlings of dioecious Ginkgo biloba can not be identified, so we are unable to use their roots as materials to make chromosomes samples according to the traditional method while we study the sex of Ginkgo biloba.Moreover, it isn't feasible to collect roots from mature pistillate and staminate plants.In order to resolve this problem, we used young anthers, leaves, ovules, microspores and female gametophyte in free-nuclear stage of Ginkgo biloba respectively as plant materials and used cycloheximide (100 mg/kg) to treat plant materials alive.We have obtained wonderful chromosomes samples in the end.Pretreatment with cycloheximide is also discussed briefly.

RESEARCH ON WEIGHTING REGRESSION AND MODELLING
Weisheng Zeng,Qibang Luo,Dongbei He
1999, 35(5):  5-11. 
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Taking weighting regression estimation method as the core, the heteroscedasticity of the general models used in forestry was discussed, and an optimal weight function was presented that could completely eliminate the unequal variance.Secondly, the model assessment was studied, and four important indices for commonly-used regression model assessment were presented, and the relationship between the four indices and weighting regression estimation was analysed.Finally, the collection of modelling sample was discussed, and the basic princinple for collecting sample data was presented.

EFFECTS OF RISING TEMPERATURE ON THE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF SEEPAGE WATER OF ACIDIFIED FOREST SOIL
Yanhui Wang,Rademacher P.,Fölster H.
1999, 35(5):  12-16. 
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The influences of rising temperature on the chemical composition of seepage water of acidified forest soils under high soil water content conditions were investigated for 1.5 years with undisturbed soil columns sampled from a strongly acidified 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea Abies Karst .) at Solling, Germany.After watering with throughfall gathered at Solling the seepage water was sampled and analysed weekly.With an increase of the mean temperature during the investigation period from 12.3 ℃ to 15.5 ℃, the mineralization rate of soil organic matter was accelerated markedly; the concentration and leaching of SO42-and Norg as well as Corg were increased obviously; the concentration and leaching of Al3+ and NO3- were decreased significantly; the concentration and leaching of NH4+,HPO42-,Cl- and the Ca2+/Al3+ ratio of the seepage water were increased only slightly; the concentration and leaching of H+ were decreased slightly; however, the concentration of base cations and their percentage in the sum of all cations were not obviously afftected by the rising temperature.The lowering of net nitrification rate caused by the acceleration of denitrification under higher temperature seems to be the decisive process for the decrease of Al3+concentration.To summarise, the Al3+ toxicity was moderated in a certain degree by the rising temperature, the nutrient situation of base cations was not improved.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANOPY AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LEAVES IN PHY LLOSTACHYS PRAECOX C.D.CHU.ET.C.S.CHAO CV.PREVEYNALIS PLANTATIONS
Guomo Zhou,Aiwu Jin
1999, 35(5):  17-21. 
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A study on characteristics of the canopy and spatial distribution of leaves in P.praecox C.D. Chu.et.C.S.Chao cv.preveynalis shows that the higher the canopy, the smaller the angle between culm and branches while the angle between culm and branches is positively correlated with the density of a stand.The spatial distribution of leaves is greatly affected by the number of branches each bamboo has, DBH of the culm and the stand density.The total leaf weight of each bamboo is increased with the number of rounds of branches, with leaf quantity reaching maximum when there are 15 ~ 16 rounds of branches.Asimilar trend is found between DBH and the total leaf weight each bamboo has, with the latter being maximum when DBH is about 3.7cm, and no much changes are found in leaf weight when DBH is more than 3.7cm.Increasing the stand density leads to that the center of canopy gravity moves upwards.When a stand has a density of 25600 ~ 29200 bamboo per hectare, leaves in upper layer account for 63.13 % of the total weight of leaves, with much litter found on the ground.

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON PRINCIPLE ECO-CLIMATIC FACTORS OF LIMITING NATURAL REFORESTATION OF PINUS SYL VESTRIS VAR.MONGOLICA ON SANDY LAND
Guang Han,Guifang Zhang,Wenbin Yang
1999, 35(5):  22-27. 
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Stepwise discriminate analysis (SDA) was conducted using 33 variables from 8 meterological stations which are divided into 2 groups in this paper.Results show that principal limiting factors on natural forestation of P.sylvestris var.mongolica on sandy land include extremely lowest air temperature, extremely highest surface temperature, evaporation quantity in January and average days of accumulating snow for many years, which strongly influence the seed germination and the growth and development of shoots.Therefore, it is neccessary to choose suitable habitats or niches to overcome those adverse factors as mentioned above in aforestation pratice, and take effective artificial measures to promote its natural reforestation so as to guarantee their stable and sustainable development.

SPATIAL CORRELATION INDICES AMONG FOREST LANDSCAPE STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS AND LANDSCAPE PATTERN ANALYSIS IN GUANDISHAN FOREST REGION
Jinping Guo,Yunxiang Zhang
1999, 35(5):  28-33. 
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Supported by ARC/ INFO, using Spatial Correlation Indices of landscape structural components (SCI), this paper comprehensively analyzed the spatial relationship among landscape structural components of forest landscape in Guandishan Forest Region.The methodology of SCI measurement was explored and introduced.By integrated analysis, the key controlling affects of landscape spatial distribution pattern were explained, and general spatial distribution laws of landscape structural components were revealed in study area.The results showed that, SCI can be effectively used to analyze patterns of complex heterogeneous landscape.It generally presented explicit ecological meaning.Supported by ARC/ INFO, Unified network lan dscape sampling system was simple, convenient, reliable and practicable to measure the SCI.It was also showed that landscape pattern in study area was controlled by both environment heterogeneity and disturbance regime, which mostly come from residential area, extended along river and road corridor, and spread through farmland.From complex, fragmented and highly heterogeneous landscape, the distribution outline of all landscape structural components was revealed, and at the same time, the distribution pattern and general laws of ten forest types in study area, were also clearly explained in this paper.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CROWN CHARACTERISTICS AND STEMWOOD GROWTH OF NEW POPLAR CLONES
Huogen Li,Minren Huang
1999, 35(5):  34-37. 
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The relationship between crown characteristics and stemwood growth was explored based on the investigation of 12 five-year-old poplar hybrid F1 clones.The stemwood growth (D 2 H) was positively related to total leaf area (TLA), surface area of crown (TCA) and crown shape ratio (CSR), but negatively related to leaf area index (LAI) and crown layer density (CLD).In the vertical distribution of crown foliage, the upper and middle layers were the determinants on stemwood growth, while in the horizontal distribution, the inner and outer parts had great contributions on stemwood production.In the end of this paper, a reasonable crown characteristics structure for this poplar population was outlined.

ACQUISITION, CONSERVATION AND UTILIZATION OF GENETIC RESOURCES IN CHINESE FIR
Huajian Wang,Quan Huang,Zongfu Deng,Junhao Lu
1999, 35(5):  38-45. 
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Based on an introduction to methods used for acquisition, conservation and utilization of genetic resources, methods for classification and nomenclature of genetic resources and number them and the conservation techniques that "diverse methods, rolling development and integrated conservation and utilization" were proposed.3113 seedlots containing 18764 individuals of Chinese fir were conserved, A secondgeneration provenance gene pool and an in situ conservation stand of a small population of superior "Chenshan Chinese fir" were established.Form traits, phenology and relations of origin to growth, wood properties and isozymes were investigated.Canopy density, crown width and winding extent of cone scales were significantly and positively related to volume growth in general.There was isozyme variation in the greybranch Chinese fir and Yellow-branch Chinese fir has large wood density.Wood properties of "Chenshan Chinese fir" and the structure of its stand were also studied.

CLONINGOF A PROMOTER FRAGMENTOF BARK STORAGE PROTEIN GENE FROM POPULUS DELTOIDES AND ITS FUNCTION IN TRANSGENIC TOBACCO PLANTS
Hao Jiang,Hongmin Qin,Yingchuan Tian,W.Gabriel Dean
1999, 35(5):  46-50. 
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Bark storage protein(BSP)of poplar, anitrogen reserve similar to seed storage protein, plays an important role in the nitrogen metabolism of deciduous trees.They present in large quantities in the phloem parenchyma cells in winter.In order to learn the expression pattern of BSP gene promoter in transgenic plants, and to explore its potential application in plant genetic engineering for phloem-specific expression of interested genes.BSP gene promoter fragment was amplified by PCR method from Populus deltoides genome DNA.Intermediate vector was constructed by inserting the promoter sequence upstream of GUS gene in pBI121, resulting in the replacement of the original CaMV 35S promoter by the BSP promoter. Regenerated tobacco plants obtained by transformation were analyzed by PCR to select the putative transgenic plans.Histochemical localization of GUS activity indicated that BSP promoter could confer a phloemspecific expression of GUS gene.

FAST AND CONVENIENT ISOLATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF TOTAL DNA IN FOKIENIA HODGINSII (DUNN) HENRY ET THOMAS
Xiaoqing Li,Bingying Ye,Youqiang Chen,Jinmao Zhu,Ping An
1999, 35(5):  51-56. 
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The recent studies of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas, which is a rare and endangered tree species, show that it can play an important role in the sustainable development of the forest land.So it has been listed as one of the most important tree species in afforestation by the Forestry Ministry of China.A fast, simple and convenient method is established to isolate and characterize the total DNA in fresh leaves, dry leaves and seeds of Fokienia hodginsii.The production rate of these isolated DNA are 150 ~ 250 μg DNA per gram of fresh leaves, 100 ~ 150 μg DNA per gram of dry leaves, 140 ~ 160 μg DNA per gram of seeds respectively, and the rough total DNA OD260/OD280 =1.80 ±0.02.The total DNA from fresh leaves, seeds and one seed's endosperm is 48 kb respectively, but that fromdry leaves is 50 kb.Therefore, these DNA are all suitable for digesting with restriction enzyme and RAPD analysis, generally the experiment either time is only 4h. It is not necessary to carry on cesium chloride gradient contrifugation and column chromatography or abstraction with chloroform.The rough total DNA can be used in RAPD analysis without RNase digestion, and in digesting with restriction enzyme after being digested by RNase as well. Consequently, it is easy to obtain high yields, high purity and high quality of total DNA in 4h.Especially, the total DNA in dry leaves obtained by this method has a higher level in digesting with restriction enzyme and PCR analysis, thus it solves the inconvenience of drawing materials. During experiment, some useful results have also been found: (1) It has no obvious influence on the isolation of to tal DNA from Fokienia hodginsii whether eliminating chlorophyll before isolation or not. (2) The total DNA can be digested completely only its RNA is eliminated. (3) The RAPD template that has RNA and a certain amount of protein shows no effect on the result of RAPD. (4) DNA templates extracted from fresh leaves, dry leaves or seeds of an individual produce the same RAPD result.

TESTINGON THE ANTAGONISMOF THE DOMINANT OF ENDOPHYTIC FUNGI FROM POPULUS TOMENTOSA, CHAETOMIUM ND35 IN THE LABORATORY
Xiaoguang Liu,Kexiang Gao,Jiancai Gu,Jianling Du,Xiuguang Tang
1999, 35(5):  57-61. 
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The dominant endophy tic fungus Chaetomium ND35 was selected by analysing the components of endophytic flora from Populus tomentosa and its antagonism to 6 plant pathogens was evaluated in vitro and in vivo, which included Macrophoma kuwatsukai, Valsa mali, Cytospora chrysosperma, Dothiorella gregaria, Rhizoctonia solani and Sclerotium rolfsii.The results showed that Chaetomium ND35 had antagonistic activities to all 6 species of tested plant pathogens.Chaetomium ND35 suppressed the mycerial growth and spore germination of pathogens.The sclerotia of S.rolfsii were hyperparasited and their germination rates were reduced.The facts that the inhibition zone was produced in dual culture with Cytospora spp.and the culture filtrates of Chaetomium ND35 inhibited the conidia germination of M.kuwatsukai and D.gregaria revealed that the antibiosis was a mode of action as mechanism of antagonism of Chaetomium ND35.The hyperparasitism was verified by the phenomena that the coiled, penetrated and disintegrated hyphae of R.solani were observed under the microscope.The result of artificial inoculation test with Chaetomium ND35 and C.chrysosperma also supplied the evidence for the potenciality of Chaetomium ND35 in biocontrol of plant diseases.

SUBSTANCES FROM SOPHORA ALOPECAROIDES WHICH INHIBIT GERMINATION OF THE CONIDIA IN GLOMERALLA CINGULATA
Boguang Zhao,Jihong Jiang
1999, 35(5):  62-67. 
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From the preliminary screen it was found that the ethanol extracts from airy parts of Sophora alopecaroidescould inhibit G.cingulata effectively.Four parts were separated from the ethanol extracts of S. alopecuroides under conditions of certain pH and using certain solvents.Bioassay showed that the alkaloid part was the strongest portion to inhibit the fungus.Seven monomers were isolated from the alkaloid part by chromatog raphy on an alumina column and they were identified as sophocarpine, matrine, sophoramine, lehmanine, sophoradine, aloperine and cytisine in comparison with the measured data of m.p., IR optical rotation and MS and those from literature.Bioassay using the paper ring method indicated that all the seven alkaloids were of relatively strong activity to inhibit germination of the conidia of G.cingnalata, their EC50 were 72.0μg/mL for aloperine, 227.0μg/mL for cytisine, 190.0μg/mL for sophoramine, 86.0 μg/mL for matrine, 24.0μg/mL for sophocarpine, 26.0 μg/mL for sophoradine, 126.0μg/m L for lehanine; the EC50 for the common fungicides, 75 %Daconial and 70 % Topsin-M, were 82.0 and 118.0μg/mL respectively under the same conditions of the bioassay.

STUDY ON THE SAWFLY MEGABLESES CRASSITARSIS(HYMENOPTERA: TENTHREDINIDAE, ALLANTINAE)
Yuzhou Ding,Huaishu Zheng
1999, 35(5):  68-71. 
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The swafly, Megabeleses crassitiarsis Takeuchi, is a newly recorded insectpest in China.It occurred in Dabieshan Mountains, east China.Its host plants are yula magnolia, Magnolia denudata Desr.and lily magnolia, Magnolia liliflora Desr..It has one generation per year and overwinters as prepupa in cocoon in the topsoil.The larvae occur from early May to mid-May; the trees were seriously damaged in this period.The incidence of this pest is closely related to elevation, temperature and moisture.The larvae(before third instar) were >95 % controlled by 80% DDVp emulsion at 1500×dilation during mid-May in Huoshan County.

STUDY ON THE LOSSES CAUSED BY XYLOTRECHUS NAMANGANENSIS Heydel
Aijing Wang,Hongguang Liu,Kerong Deng
1999, 35(5):  72-76. 
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Xylotrechus namanganensis Heydel is a dangerous pest to broadleaved ornamental tree species in the northern plain area in Xinjiang.Adults of this pest eat little, they only take in honey in the flowers or juice of the trees and do not directly harm the trees.Whereas other forms of the pest cause damage to the trees, since all the eggs, larvae and pupae live within trunks of the trees, which delays sprouting, advances leaf shedding, and halters grow th of the infected trees.Both DBH and height of the infected plants were significantly smaller compared to those of the healthy ones.Consequently the timber volume of the former was remarkably less than that of the later.There was linear regression relationship between reduction of timber volume and the number of insect cavities, i.e.Y = 3.9008 +1.6874X, (r =0.9841 **).The infestation index might be indirectly determined in the light of the number of eclosion cavity of the adults, though larvae of the pest bore and take food inside the trunk.Most of eclosion cavities of the adults appeared within the height of 2.5m above the ground.According to the principle that the retrieved loss should be equal to or greater than the expense on pest cont rol, the economic injury level(EIL) of Xylotrechus namanganensis Heydel should be set as 2 eclosion cavities per plant.

STUDIES ON BIRDS IN THE TIANMU MOUNTAINS, EAST CHINA
Xi Zhu,Fei Ren,Shengfu Shao,Zhengdong Wang
1999, 35(5):  77-86. 
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In the Tianmu mountains, there are 193 species of birds, belonging to 16 orders, 45 families, accounting for 46.62 % of the birds in Zhejiang.Among them 93 species are residents, 34 species summer visitors, 52 species winter visitors and 14 species travellers, including 9 species of endemic birds, which amounting to 9.0 %of ones in China.Analysis showed that bird migration and environmental change have great influence on the composition of bird communities.The avifauna of Tianmu mountains, which belongs to central China region of Oriental realm, near the south border of Palaearctic realm, has mixed features of transiting from Oriental relam to Palaearctic realm in bird composition.

HUMIDITY CONDITIONING FUNCTION OF WOOD AND WOOD-BASED INTERIOR WALL MATERIALS Ⅱ
Jinzhen Cao,Guangjie Zhao,Jinhong Luo
1999, 35(5):  87-93. 
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In order to clarify the humidity conditioning rule of interior decorative materials during the changing process of water vapor round the materials and evaluate quantitatively their humidity conditioning properties, the curves of the relative humidity in the experimental box lined with wood, wood based or inorganic materials were determined by changing the content of water vapor at an ambient temperature of 26 ℃.Two physical quantities x and y were defined to represent the humidity conditioning properties of these materials.The results showed that the various interior materials can be classified into four groups according to their x and y values; wood or wood-based materials can condition environmental humidity very well; the values of x and y of wood-based materials decrease as the increasing of the values of A/ V; and during the cyclic changing of the content of water vapor in this experiment, the influence of specimen's thickness on humidity conditioning property is not obvious.

STUDY ON MAIN WOOD PROPERTIES OF EUCALYPTUS 12 ABL W5 WITH DIFFERENT CONTINUOUS-PLANTING ROTATION
Xuebiao Yu,Weidong Yang,Jinhua Yang,Chunyan Lu
1999, 35(5):  94-98. 
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Research results showed that the index of breast height form factor, form quotient and H/DBH ratio increased and the taper of stem decreased, with continuous-plating rotation(CPR) increasing, which indicated that the full form index of the standing stem was much better with the CPR increasing and benefited to obtain the outturn percent.In addition, the specific gravity of wood (SGW) decreased with the tree height increasing.SGW and the length of wood fibre increased with CPR increasing.SGW of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rotation increased by 7.3 %, 12.4 % and 15.8 %, respectively, compared with the 1st rotation.The stem outturn percent of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rotation increased by 15.5 %, 20.7 % and 20.3 %, respectively, compared with the 1st rotation.In general, the wood quality was improved with CPR increasing.

TEST AND ANALYSIS OF NOISE IN CABIN OF LOG-HAULING TRUCKS
Meishuang Liu,Xibin Dong,Jiyao Hu
1999, 35(5):  99-102. 
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Noise in cabin of truck endangers the driver's health directly and leads to many physiological diseases.It can also bring about traffic accidents and influence work efficiency.In our country, log-hauling trucks are all heavy trucks.Because of trucks themselves and using conditions, noise in cabin is very loud. Some tests were made based on the investigation of noise in cabins of two kinds of trucks that were often used in China.The model of testing main noise source in cabins was founded under many inputs and one output by spectrumand coherent funcetion theory.After tests noise in cabins was evaluated and the correction of the model was verified.The noise in cabins and its resource were also defined.

X-RAY PHOTOELECTRON SPECTROSCOPIC (XPS)ANALYSIS OF WOOD SURFACE TREATMENT WITH MICROWAVE PLASMA
Guanben Du,Yukun Hua,Yongjie Cui,Zhen Wang
1999, 35(5):  104-109. 
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X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic(XPS)is one of the most effective and sensitive tools for the surface analysis of solid wood.This tool was applied to elucidate the verifying of wood surface treated by microwave phasma in this paper.Plasma treatment decreased C1(carbon bonded to carbon and/or hydrogen)and increased C2(carbon bonded to a single oxygen), C3(carbon bonded to two non-carbonyl oxygen or to acarbony l oxygen)in XPS Cls spectra, and C4(carbon bonded to a carbonyl and a non-carbonyl oxygen)appeared after plasma treat.This suggested increasing of hydro xyl groups on cellulose and/or lignin by plasma treatment.Appearing of atom N indicated that-NH2 occurred possibly during treatment.Under the same treatment conditions, oxygen plasma was most effective, followed by air and Nitrogen.On the other side, oxygen plasma treatment presented differences with Nitrogen and air.

APPLICATION OF PSYCHOPHYSICAL METHOD IN EVALUATION OF FOREIGN FOREST LANDSCAPES
Yan Wang,Xinfeng Chen
1999, 35(5):  110-117. 
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Four evaluation methods of forest landscapes derived from psychophysics are presented.They are, (1) Shafer and others(1969) summed rankings given to scenes to achieve a scenic beauty value.Their work has been innovative and has been the basis of other studies attempting to evaluate the effects of landscape elements on preference.However, the predicted variable (Yi) is only an ordinal value and the model lacks intuitive appeal since some of the independent variables seem illogical (e.g., area of any kind of water×area of intermediate vegetation).(2) Brush and Briggs simply averaged ratings assigned to landscape scenes(1979, 1980).The predicted variable (Yi) is also an ordinal value, and they have not taken the effect of observer judgmental criteria into account.(3) Daniel and Boster (1976) emphasized that scenic beauty judgments depend jointly on the perceived properties of the landscape and the judgmental criteria of the observer, so they transformed ratings to obtain Scenic Beauty Estimates (SBE's), which theoretically express scenic beauty on an interval scale.(4) Buhyoff and Leuschner (1978) and Buhyoff and Wellman (1980) used a scaling of paired comparisons and rank orderings based on Thurstone's Lawof Comparative Judgment. The comparison between SBE method and LCJmethod is given with respect to their theoretical derivations and their empirically generated scenic beauty metrics.The SBE and LCJmethods are similar theoretically in the they both assess distributional overlap through confusion in an attempt to determine landscape similarity.The difference is howthey measure confusion and howthey define the distributional overlap of interest.The SBE and LCJmethods are of empirically convergent validity.The greatest advantage of SBE method is that it allowa larger sample and is much less time consuming, while the pair comparison LCJprocedure provides the most information and highest precision. Discussions upon some basic issues are presented.e.g., the convergence of conclusions achieved from field evaluation and offce-based evaluation, the measures to ensure the validity of sampled photoes and forests, the judgmental convergence among different type of observers, the effect of regional familiarity and psychological factors upon the judgment of landscape scenic beauty. The application of psychophysical methods in forest landscape estimation during past 30 years is introduced through integrating some typical study.It is divided into two parts—out-forest landscape evaluation and in-forest landscape evaluation, meanwhile, the most commonly used forest landscape elements are listed, and the relationship between some elements and scenic beauty are summarized. Finally, the limitations of application of psychophysical method are analyzed, the main points are that it scarcely cover evaluation of the multiple tree species forests, the variation of forest seasonal appearance, the integration of forest and non-forest landscape elements, the non-tree vegetations

THE MECHANISM OF EMPTY-BUNDLE FORMATION IN CHINESE CHESTNUT
Zhien Ding
1999, 35(5):  118-123. 
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This article analyses a prominent problem which there are lowyield, low-seed ratio and high empty bundle ratio in our Chinese Chestnut production and seeks for the theory why it appears in Chinese Chestnut.Chinese Chestnut(Castanea mollissima BI.) originated in China.Our output is the first position in world production and occupy one-fourth to one-third in whole world output(being 9.3×104t in 1988, whole world output was 45.6×104 t in the year). But our yield per area is lower.There are different reasons for low-yield production, among which high empty-bundle ratio is the main cause.So, the article reviews the mechanism of Chinese Chestnut Empty-Bundle result from embryo tissue, nutrients and hormone level.The results showthat the mechanism of Empty-Bundle is due to innormal embryo tissue or being unable to bear normaly or lacking B, P mineral nutrient element and hormone balance.Whiletime the article points out measures to solve Chinese Chestnut's Empty-Bundle and raise its the output, such as increasing fertilizer in soil and sprying nutrient element on leaf; removing superfluous male flowers to adjust the proportion of femate flower and male flower selecting pollenizer and fine breeds and strains.

A STUDY OF GREY FORECASTING MODELS OF FOREST FIRE DISASTER AREA
Zhiguang Zhang,Ye Tao,Chaofei Ye
1999, 35(5):  124-128. 
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According to grey system theory and method, a forecasting and analysis method for the trend of forest fire disaster area(FFDA)was studied. Jiangxi Province being taken as example, the GM (1, 1) forecasting models were built; the grey forecasting curve and grey forecasting interval were obtained; and the situation of forest fire disaster in the province till 2010 was forecasted and analysed, in order to provide sound bases for making decisions about forest protection. In addition, the analysis of forecasting accuracy and comparison with regression method showed that the method of this paper can meet the accuracy demand and is obviously better than white forecasting method.