基于随机森林的大兴安岭中部天然林更新数量影响因素识别

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250344

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to explore and identify key factors influencing the quantity of natural forest regeneration by developing a random forest model, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of natural forests in the central of Daxing’anling region. Method: Based on the survey data from 96 standard sample plots in Cuigang forest farm, Xinlin forest farm, and Zhuangzhi forest farm under the Xinlin Forestry Bureau, 29 basic indicators were selected across six categories: stand characteristics, site conditions, soil conditions, tree size diversity, species diversity, and stand spatial structure. Poisson model, negative binomial model, and random forest regression model were used to construct regeneration quantity models for Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla. After model optimization, the OOB permutation method was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor variable to the regeneration quantities of L. gmelinii and B. platyphylla. Result: The ten-fold cross-validation test showed that the accuracy of the random forest regeneration prediction model was significantly higher than that of the Poisson model and the negative binomial model. The root mean square error ( RMSE) was 482 and 682 tree·hm^?2, and mean absolute error (MAE） was 377 and 460 tree·hm^?2 for L. gmelinii and B. platyphylla, respectively. The OOB permutation method identified the most important variables for L. gmelinii regeneration as: Shannon index of diameter at breast height (DBH) (17.57%), Pielou’s evenness index of DBH (16.88%), stand volume per unit area (13.29%), Simpson index of DBH (12.92%), and mean DBH (12.91%). For B. platyphylla, the key variables were: Shannon index of DBH (18.53%), Pielou’s evenness index of DBH (16.13%), herbaceous cover (12.62%), mean DBH (12.34%), and shrub cover (11.31%). Conclusion: Tree size diversity and stand density are key factors influencing regeneration. Nurturing harvesting or replanting strategies can ensure scientific and reasonable stand density, thereby promoting natural regeneration and supporting the ecological succession of forest ecosystems.

Key words: screening of characteristic variables, random forests, regeneration, quantity prediction model

CLC Number:

S754.1

Dongyuan Tian,Zhaogang Liu,Lichun Jiang,Lingbo Dong. Identification of the Influencing Factors on the Regeneration Quantity of Natural Forests in the Central Part of Daxing’anling Mountains Based on Random Forest[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(5): 69-79.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 0

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项 Item	变量 Variables	最小值 Min.	平均值 Mean	最大值 Max.	标准差 SD	变异系数 CV （%）
林分特征 Stand characteristics	平均胸径Mean DBH/cm	9.50	13.37	21.10	2.63	19.67
	平均树高Mean height/m	8.80	11.75	18.20	2.13	18.13
	林木密度Tree density/（ tree·hm^?2）	567.00	1 466.00	2 680.00	543.33	37.06
	单位蓄积量Volume/（m³·hm^?2）	53.47	127.58	223.11	39.40	30.88
	郁闭度Canopy density	0.25	0.63	0.90	0.12	19.05
	灌木盖度Shrub coverage （%）	0.00	15.48	84.00	20.07	129.65
	草本盖度Herb coverage （%）	0.03	19.99	84.25	25.82	129.16
立地条件 Site conditions	海拔Elevation/m	404.00	514.45	676.30	67.66	13.15
	坡度Slope	0.00	7.00	25.00	6.41	0.92
	坡向Aspect	1.00	4.96	8.00	2.52	50.75
	坡位Site	1.00	2.03	3.00	0.62	30.52
土壤条件 Soil conditions	酸碱度pH	4.03	5.28	6.41	0.40	7.63
	OM/（g·kg^?1）	1.01	4.50	6.81	18.10	30.06
	TN/（g·kg^?1）	0.67	3.21	9.11	1.68	52.36
	TP/（g·kg^?1）	1.21	1.53	2.46	0.24	15.46
	TK/（g·kg^?1）	6.14	8.28	10.85	1.28	15.41
林木大小多样性 Tree size diversity	DSW	1.54	2.11	2.89	0.27	13.03
	DS	0.76	0.86	0.96	0.04	4.66
	DP	0.72	0.88	1.00	0.07	7.45
	HSW	1.23	1.76	2.12	0.18	10.52
	HS	0.67	0.80	0.87	0.04	5.07
	HP	0.72	0.87	0.99	0.06	6.45
物种多样性 Species diversity	TSSW	0.05	0.66	1.19	0.25	37.96
	TSS	0.02	0.39	0.64	0.14	37.19
	TSP	0.07	0.63	1.00	0.20	32.18
林分空间结构 Stand spatial structure	W	0.41	0.50	0.75	0.05	9.12
	U	0.39	0.50	0.70	0.04	8.21
	M	0.03	0.34	0.61	0.14	40.45
	SDP	0.00	0.63	1.00	0.39	61.93
更新数量 Regeneration number	兴安落叶松 Larix gmelinii /（ tree·hm^?2）	90.00	899.00	4 550.00	999.39	111.17
更新数量 Regeneration number	白桦Betula platyphylla /（ tree·hm^?2）	40.00	1 035.00	7 800.00	1 406.53	135.90

参数Parameter	兴安落叶松Larix gmelinii						白桦Betula platyphylla
参数Parameter	Poisson	P	VIF	NB	P	VIF	Poisson	P	VIF	NB	P	VIF
截距Intercept	4.228 0	***		7.114 1	***		2.034 0	***		2.534 4	***
ELE	?0.003 1	***	2.082 2	?0.004 7	***	1.499 2
OM	0.048 1	***	1.548 0
TP	?1.755 0	***	4.955 3	?0.887 5	*	1.532 0
TK	0.043 8	***	4.108 5
DSW				1.567 5	***	1.045 8	0.826 0	***	8.115 0
DS	4.685 0	***	3.719 1
DP							2.855 0	***	4.215 4
HSW							0.169 8	***	1.619 5	0.947 4	*	1.449 0
MDBH										0.230 6	***	2.112 5
MH	0.132 1	***	5.671 0				0.028 7	***	5.523 9
TD	?0.000 1	***	3.191 4				?0.000 5	***	3.210 8
V	0.001 1	***	3.570 9				0.001 3	***	3.851 6	?0.006 0	*	1.657 2
M	1.270 0	***	1.054 7
SC							0.002 9	***	1.822 5
HC							0.007 4	***	2.486 3	0.006 4	*	1.368 8

树种 Tree species	模型 Model	检验指标Test indicators
树种 Tree species	模型 Model	RMSE/ （tree·hm^?2）	rRMSE （%）	MAE/ （tree·hm^?2）	MAPE （%）
兴安落叶松 Larix gmelinii	Poisson	1 312	142.63	899	98.38
	NB	1 310	142.62	898	98.38
	RF	482	55.72	377	80.92
白桦 Betula platyphylla	Poisson	1 588	150.32	1 012	98.07
	NB	1 586	150.31	1 011	98.05
	RF	682	68.00	460	84.85

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Identification of the Influencing Factors on the Regeneration Quantity of Natural Forests in the Central Part of Daxing’anling Mountains Based on Random Forest

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