Abstract:

Objective: This study evaluated the potential distribution of global wild Asian elephant habitats under current and future climate change, aiming to provide valuable information for the protection of global wild Asian elephant habitat. Method: Based on 627 Asian elephant activity points and 13 environmental factors such as climate and terrain, the ENMeval package was used to optimize MaxEnt model that was used to evaluate the potential distribution of Asian elephant habitats under current climatic conditions in south Asia, southeast Asia, and southwestern China. Finally, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to evaluate potential distribution of habitat suitability for Asian elephants, and predict habitats of Asian elephants under future climate change. Result: The optimized MaxEnt model had good prediction results, and the AUC value of both the training and testing data was above 0.85. The precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) and the temperature seasonality (Bio4) were dominant environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of habitat for Asian elephant, followed by elevation. The simulation results showed that the habitat of Asian elephant was about 149×10⁴ km², accounting for 19.38% of the study area (76.86×10⁵ km²). The habitat of Asian elephant mainly distributed in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, northeastern India, Sri Lanka, southwestern border of China, as well as border areas of Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand in southeast Asia, Malay Peninsula, northern Sumatra Island and northeastern Kalimantan Island and other places in Southeast Asia. Under future climate scenarios, the habitat of Asian elephant is showing a decreasing trend compared to the current situation. The habitat of Asian elephants in in southern foothills of the Himalayas and northeastern India will significantly decrease, and there is a trend of northward movement in southern foothills of the Himalayas. Moreover, The habitat of Asian elephant in other regions such as China, Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia will be obviously reduced. Conclusion: Under future climate change, the habitat of Asian elephant would decrease, and the habitat for Asian elephants may move northward in southern foothills of the Himalayas. In the future, we should consider promoting cross-border cooperation, and formulating the strategy of Asian elephant habitat protection.

Key words: Asian elephant, climate change, MaxEnt model, habitat