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Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2017, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (4): 139-149.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20170416

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Pseudo Decoupling Risk of Economic Growth and Resource Consumption Identifying and Cracking in the National Forestry Area

Zhu Zhenfeng, Cao Yukun   

  1. College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University Harbin 150040
  • Received:2016-11-08 Revised:2017-02-08 Online:2017-04-25 Published:2017-05-26
  • Contact: 曹玉昆

Abstract: [Objective] The main obstacle lying on the road of sustainable development is the conflict and contradiction between economic growth and resource protection in the national forest area(NFA).Based on the empirical test on the pseudo decoupling risk between economic growth and resource consumption,this current aimed to explore that whether NFA has achieved win-win after years' resource control and transformation or not,with the implement of natural forest protection project(NFPP).[Method] Firstly,the decoupling relationships between economic growth and resource consumption was determined with Tapio elastic analysis and Kuznets curve model in NFA.Secondly, the existence of the pseudo decoupling risk was identified using the logarithmic trend line method.Thirdly, the models of economic development and economic growth were established to explore the main factors and ideas to crack the risk.[Result] 1) Economic growth and resource consumption achieved decoupling from 2003 with the comparative analysis of Tapio elastic model and Kuznets curve model.2) The variable coefficient of logarithmic trend line of average forest cover and GDP growth rate is 1.394 4 and -29.69 from 2003 to 2014,they show the opposite trend.3) Economic development model and growth model's results show that non-wood economy (0.992,1.969),timber yield (0.257,0.347) and investment (0.078,0.158) are the main factors supporting the economic development and driving the economic growth and their contributing extent reduced in turn,the staff (-0.202) has a negative influence on the economic development and has no significant impact on the economic growth (t=-0.28).[Conclusion] 1) The risk of pseudo decoupling caused from 2003 and economic growth suffered serious damage.2) The wood resource still has a significant impact on the forestry region economic development and growth,but the impact is hidden seriously by the resource control policy,and it's pseudo decoupling between the economy growth and resource consumption.3) The risk of pseudo decoupling is one inevitable outcome of forced decoupling under NFPP policy intervention.4) Striving to develop the non-wood economy is the priority selection to increase economic output and drive the economy growth,then it's expanding investment and seeking new timber supply,and trying to eliminating the labor redundancy.5) Building the mechanism of cracking the risk which takes investment as one support,staff as one carrier,non-economy development as force,scientific and technological innovation as measures,it aims to achieve win-win finally.

Key words: national forest area, economic growth, timber resource, natural forest protection project, decoupling

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