Abstract:

CLIMEX model and GIS were used to predict the Oak Sudden Death in its distribution regions of China. The model indicated that temperature and moisture were major climatic limiting factors which prevented the disease from burst. Both dry climate in regions of Xinjiang，Gansu，Inner Mongolia，Ningxia and Qinghai，and high temperature in the most regions of Guangxi Guangdong，Jiangxi，Hunan，and Hainan may limited development of the disease. The disease is fond of the cool and moisture environment. Therefore，the regions along the Yangtze River Basin were designated as its marginal area of occurrence，including the part of Shandong，Henan，Shaanxi，Jiangsu，Hunan and on the surrounding. The suitable and the most suitable areas for the disease mainly located in Southwest China(Sichuan，Guizhou，Yunnan，Chongqing)，the central China(Hubei) and the Southeast China(Zhejiang，Jiangsu，Anhui，Fujian and Taiwan). These regions had the largest distribution of host plants，such as Rhododendron spp，Quercus spp，Lithocarpus spp. and so on. It is imperative to prevent the disease from invasion to the regions.

Key words: oak sudden death, Phytophthora ramorum, potential distribution, CLIMEX model