Abstract: [Objective] The coconut caterpillar Opisina arenosella Walker (Lepidoptera: Xyloryctidae) is a serious pest to the coconuts (Cocos nucifera) in tropical and subtropical countries. It is native in southern India and Sri Lanka, and has been introduced into Bangladesh, Burma, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia Pakistan, and Singapore successively. In August 2013, O. arenosella was reported in 9 cities in Hainan, Zhongshan and Shunde in Guangdong, and Fangchenggang in Guangxi, with the pest population outbreaks in some areas. This pest has the potential to spread many areas in southern China, and it was listed as the dangerous forest pest by State Forestry Bureau in 2014. Predicting the potential distribution of newly introduced species is the priority task for invasion monitoring and spread management.[Method] Ecological niche modeling has been widely used in biological invasion with a premise that ecological niche is conservative. In this study, we first compared the climate space occupied by native and introduced Chinese populations. We then integrated the planting zone of coconut into the spatial prediction of ecological niche model. Both Maxent and GARP models were used to generate the potential distribution.[Results] Difference was observed bin the occupied climate spaces between the two populations, and nonetheless, the climate niche was conservative during its invasion. Thus, the observed difference was due to a geographic background effect. Although there were significant differences in the results estimated by the two niche model predictions, they were consistent in the southern China prediction. Both Maxent and GARP suggest that the potential distribution of O. arenosella in China includes: Guangdong, Guangxi, coastal Fujian, and most areas in Hainan, and the central and southern Guangxi also showed high suitability to O. arenosella. These suitable areas are fallen in the planting areas of coconut in China, and were heavily influenced by human activity.[Conclusion] It is concluded that O. arenosella has the potential to spread into these suitable areas.A special attention should be paid to the field survey in these suitable areas; and the subsequent management action could therefore effectively target on the spreading.This study would provide a reference for the potential distribution and risk analysis of O. arenosella invasion.

Key words: Opisina arenosella, ecological niche modeling, potential distribution, niche conservatism, China