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Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 1995, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 393-402.

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A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF PINUS TABULAEFORMIS IN CHINA

Quanshui Guo1,Deying Xu1,Hong Yan2   

  1. 1. Forest Ecology and Environment Institute, CAF Beijing 100091
    2. Research Institute of Forestry, CAF Beijing 100091
  • Received:1994-07-28 Online:1995-09-25 Published:1995-09-25

Abstract:

A special computer program COMPLEX was constructed to determine the climatic parameters for the distribution region of Pinus tabulaeformis based on the research on the distribution rules of the tree species. Correlation models were constructed. The central region, which is the most suitable distribution region, and potential distribution region of the species under current climatic conditions were mapped using a Geographic Information System IDRISI. According to the averaged predictions by 7 GCMS for 2030, a projection was made for the future distribution of the pine. The results show that the potential distribution area of Pinus tabulaeformis will have a small northward shift indistinctively. The east part of the northern boundary will move northwards by 1. 4°, while the southern boundary will move about 0.2° in latitude. The east and west edges will both move towards the distribution center.The potential distribution region will shrink by 9.4% compared with the current area.The species will disappear mainly in the area with lower altitudes from 180 to 1200 m above the sea level. The central distribution area will reduce by 7%, and the reduction mainly happen at the southern boundary making the continuous distribution pattern discontinuous.

Key words: Climate change, Tree species, Pine, China, Geographic distribution