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Scientia Silvae Sinicae ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (3): 67-78.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210307

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Prediction of Biomass Growth of Larix olgensis Based on 3-PG Model

Xiaoyun Xia1,2,Yong Pang2,3,*,Qingfeng Huang1,Rong Wu4,Dongsheng Chen5,Yu Bai2,3   

  1. 1. School of Forestry and Landscape, Anhui Agricultural University Hefei 230036
    2. Research Institute of Forest Resource and Information Techniques, CAF Beijing 100091
    3. Key Laboratory of Forestry Remote Sensing and Information System, National Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing 100091
    4. Faculty of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University Kunming 650224
    5. Research Institute of Forestry, CAF Beijing 100091
  • Received:2019-03-01 Online:2021-03-25 Published:2021-04-07
  • Contact: Yong Pang

Abstract:

Objective: This study was executed to predict the biomass growth of Larix olgensis based on 3-PG model in order to provide the basis for studying its growth rules. Method: The data used in this article was obtained from 5 plots of experimental forests continuously observed for 28 years and 24 plots with 3 re-measurements. The stem density, DBH(diameter at breast height), volume and biomass of each plot in different times were calculated using the biomass calculation formula for each component (leaf, stem and root). The physiological parameters of the 3-PG model of L. olgensis were calibrated by density data. And the parameter values were determined based on soil data and meteorological data through parameter calibration, iterative fitting and sensitivity analysis. The result accuracy was examined by calculating coefficient of determination (R2), mean error(ME), mean absolute error(MAE), mean relative error(MRE), and root mean square error(RMSE). Two factors, the canopy quantum efficiency(alpha) and minimum biomass fraction of NPP to roots (pRn), were chosen to procced sensitivity analysis. Then, the growth biomass of L. olgensis was predicted under the conditions of the fertility ratings(FR) being 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6. Result: 1) The prediction results were reliable and the coefficient of determination (R2) was above 0.77. The absolute values of MRE of all the other indicators were within 10.97%, except for the foliage to stem biomass ratio with a value of 25.6%. 2) The sensitivity analysis showed that alpha and pRn were the key parameters of the model with high sensitivities. 3) The predicted biomass growth in this study was consistent with the growth mechanisms of plants under different FRs. At the same time, the biomass of larch was increased with the growth of FR. Conclusion: After the parameter calibration based on field data, the 3-PG model could simulate the biomass growth of L. olgensis well and be used as an effective forest management tool. For the 3-PG model of L. olgensis, alpha and pRn might be the key parameters affecting the prediction results.

Key words: Larix olgensis, 3-PG model, sensitivity analysis, biomass

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