气候敏感的青冈栎单木胸径生长模型

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210110

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: Climate is considered as a potential driver of tree growth. Cyclobalanopsis glauca is an important timber species in southern China. However, we lack an understanding about the growth of this species and its response to climate. The purpose of this study was to explore the long-term effects of climate on the growth of C. glauca in order to provide a basis for the management decision of C. glauca forests under future climatic changes. Method: In this study, based on the data of C. glauca trees dissected in Lutou forest farm, Hunan Province, we constructed the re-parameterization model and the nonlinear mixed-effects(NLME) model with climate variables by using the Mitscherlich growth equation as the basic model, and the diameter at breast height(DBH) growth of C. glauca under the three representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the future was also predicted. Result: 1) The NLME growth model could accurately describe the complex nonlinear relationships between the DBH growth of C. glauca and climate variables, and exhibited more advantages than the traditional regression models in terms of fitting accuracy and error level. 2) The incorporation of climate variables enabled the growth model of C. glauca to respond to the impacts of climate changes on tree growth. The mean coldest month temperature was the most important climatic factor affecting the DBH growth of C. glauca, and was negatively correlated with tree DBH growth. Other climate factors were not included in the growth model because they were not statistically significant. So their effects on the growth of C. glauca were not clear. 3) The response of the DBH growth of C. glauca to different climate scenarios was different. High emission RCP8.5 had a greater negative impact on the DBH growth of C. glauca, while low emission RCP2.6 had a relatively small negative impact. These effects would become more pronounced over time. It was estimated that by 2100, the DBH growth of C. glauca at 30 ages would decrease by 6.3%, 15.6% and 53.1%, respectively, under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, compared with the current climate conditions. Conclusion: This study might be a beneficial exploration on the influences of climate changes on the growth of C. glauca, and the NLME DBH growth model for C. glauca proposed in our paper presented the advantages of climate-sensitivity, statistically reliability and predictive effectiveness, etc. These findings of the study would contribute to address the challenges of future climate changes in forest management.

Key words: Cyclobalanopsis glauca, DBH growth, climate variable, mixed-effects model, climate scenario

CLC Number:

S750

Shuai Liu,Jianjun Li,Dongsheng Qing,Kaiwen Zhu,Zhenyan Ma. A Climate-Sensitive Individual-Tree DBH Growth Model for Cyclobalanopsis glauca[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2021, 57(1): 95-104.

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数据Data	变量Variables	均值Mean	最大值Max.	最小值Min.	标准差SD
生长数据 Growth data	树龄Age/a	41.39	54.00	33.00	7.98
	胸径DBH/cm	15.57	29.10	8.60	5.54
	树高Tree height/m	12.36	16.00	7.80	2.23
	材积Volume/m³	0.147	0.447	0.035	0.117
气候数据 Climatic data	年平均温度MAT/℃	16.65	17.10	16.35	0.24
	最热月均温MWMT/℃	26.81	27.40	26.15	0.36
	最冷月均温MCMT/℃	4.48	6.60	3.05	0.72
	MWMT和MCMT温差TD/℃	21.14	22.50	20.25	0.99
	年平均降水MAP/mm	1 457.22	1 592.00	1 276.20	112.71
	干燥指数AHM	10.92	11.86	10.20	0.53

生长方程Growth equations	AIC	BIC	LogLik	RSS	MRE	RMSE
Mitscherlich	1 072.084	1 082.526	-533.042 2	1 193.661 3	0.263 8	2.234 8
Gomperz	1 083.415	1 097.338	-537.707 7	1 240.984 0	0.253 0	2.278 7
Korf	1 074.142	1 088.064	-533.070 8	1 193.945 8	0.267 8	2.235 1
Richards	—	—	—	—	—	—
Logistic	1 095.954	1 109.877	-543.977 0	1 307.541 2	0.262 5	2.339 0

编号 ID	混合效应参数 Mixed-effects parameter	AIC	BIC	LogLik	RSS	MRE	RMSE
N1	λ₀₀+γ₀₀	606.936 1	627.820 0	-297.468 1	109.447 1	0.160 0	0.676 7
N2	λ₀₁+γ₀₁	620.950 2	641.834 0	-304.475 1	116.773 9	0.161 2	0.699 0
N3	λ₁₀+γ₁₀	—	—	—	—	—	—
N4	λ₁₁+γ₁₁	—	—	—	—	—	—
N5	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₀₁+γ₀₁	—	—	—	—	—	—
N6	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₁₀+γ₁₀	—	—	—	—	—	—
N7	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	608.264 0	636.109 1	-296.132 0	108.175 2	0.159 4	0.672 8
D8	λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₀+γ₁₀	—	—	—	—	—	—
D9	λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	—	—	—	—	—	—
N10	λ₁₀+γ₁₀, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	—	—	—	—	—	—
N11	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₀+γ₁₀	582.217 8	620.504 9	-280.108 9	57.733 2	0.139 1	0.491 5
N12	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	614.266 1	652.553 1	-296.133 0	108.172 8	0.159 4	0.672 8
N13	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₁₀+γ₁₀, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	614.275 6	652.562 7	-296.137 8	108.162 9	0.159 4	0.672 7
N14	λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₀+γ₁₀, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	—	—	—	—	—	—
N15	λ₀₀+γ₀₀, λ₀₁+γ₀₁, λ₁₀+γ₁₀, λ₁₁+γ₁₁	—	—	—	—	—	—

组成部分 Component		参数 Parameter	估计值 Estimation
固定效应 Fixed-effects	截距 Intercepts	λ₀₀	-8.249 7
	截距 Intercepts	λ₁₀	-0.016 5
	协变量 Covariates	λ₀₁	-6.881 6
	协变量 Covariates	λ₁₁	0.001 1
随机效应 Random-effects	方差 Variances	σ_γ₀₀²	1.050 1e^-5
		σ_γ₀₁²	5.346 7e^-1
		σ_γ₁₀²	7.619 6e^-3
	协方差 Covariances	σ_{γ₀₀×γ₀₁}	5.389 5e^-5
		σ_{γ₀₀×γ₁₀}	-4.640 0e^-8
		σ_{γ₀₁×γ₁₀}	-3.202 3e^-2

评价指标 Indicators	基础模型 Basic model	再参数化模型 Re-parameterization model	混合效应模型 NLME model
AIC	1 072.084 0	1 070.342 0	582.217 8
BIC	1 082.526 0	1 087.745 0	620.504 9
LogLik	-533.042 2	-530.171 1	-280.108 9
RSS	1 193.661 3	1 165.440 9	57.733 2
MRE	0.263 8	0.263 0	0.139 1
RMSE	2.234 8	2.208 2	0.491 5

A Climate-Sensitive Individual-Tree DBH Growth Model for Cyclobalanopsis glauca

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气候场景 Climate scenarios		最冷月均温MCMT/℃
气候场景 Climate scenarios		均值Mean	最大值Max.	最小值Min.	标准差SD
2011—2040	当前Current	4.48	6.60	3.05	0.72
	RCP2.6	4.59	8.10	1.00	1.97
	RCP4.5	4.73	7.50	1.10	1.76
	RCP8.5	5.24	8.80	0.30	1.83
2041—2070	当前Current	4.48	6.60	3.05	0.72
	RCP2.6	5.64	8.70	-0.50	2.03
	RCP4.5	6.03	9.60	3.10	1.98
	RCP8.5	6.95	9.80	4.10	1.44
2071—2100	当前Current	4.48	6.60	3.05	0.72
	RCP2.6	5.94	9.20	-2.50	2.29
	RCP4.5	6.70	10.20	-0.20	2.29
	RCP8.5	8.56	12.20	3.70	1.93

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