Abstract: [Objective]It is important to analyze the relationship between tree mortality and planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors for managing Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata)well.[Method] Based on the Chinese fir data in Jiangxi Province, three widely used model for analyzing binary data which are logit, probit and cloglog link models were used to modelling tree mortality and compared with each other. Then we introduced the plot and tree random effects to the selected model in order.[Result] The result showed that the logit model was the best(AIC=4 700.419), followed by probit model, and cloglog model. Also accounting for the plot and tree random effects at the same time had the best performance, and its AUC was 0.966 8, which was close to 1. In addition, we also found:mortality rate increased with increasing initial planting density and site index; decreased with increasing d/D_g; decreased with increasing mean annual temperature and previous summer mean temperature; increased with increasing previous winter mean minimum temperature and annual heat-moisture index.[Conclusion] Logit model performed well on modeling tree mortality in relation to planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors. The research of relationship between mortality and annual heat-moisture index could be helpful for managing Chinese fir plantations under the climate change.

Key words: tree mortality, Chinese fir, link models, initial planting density, climate, competition