Abstract:

Based on data from forest relief maps and field investigations, landscape scenarios in Xiaokelan forest region of Altai Mountains in Xinjiang were analyzed by using the TELSA (tool for exploratory landscape scenario analyses) and VDDT (vegetation dynamics development tool), which were introduced from North America. Five different simulation scenarios representing 5 different management approaches were established and analyzed by integrating disturbances from nature and human, and management treatments. In scenarios without disturbance, the pastures and unused lands were the main landscape types in this area, and Larix sibirica forests predominated in the tree landscape type during the simulated period of 80 years. The TELSA can successfully and clearly simulate the changes in landscape type, area, age composition, regeneration manner, and the simulated result has relatively higher visibility. The relative importance of adverse interference factors on landscape dynamics changes was sorted as following: grazing (36.50%) > fire (28.76%) > diseases and insect pests (23.68%) > wind (6.48%) > trampling and recreation (4.58%). The importance of positive interference factors on landscape dynamics changes was sorted as following: closing the land for reforestation (28.91%) > natural regeneration with artificial promotion (23.94%) > returning grazing land to forest and reforestation (17.81%) > fire prevention (14.04%) > disease and insect pest controlling (11.00%) > cleaning of fallen wood (4.29%). We believe that TELSA can be used in the forest regions which are similar to the Xiaokelan forest region in China, and our simulating results would provide a guide for developing management plans and practice in this area.

Key words: Xiaokelan forest region, tool for exploratory landscape scenario analyses, vegetation dynamics development tool, Altai Mountain