正式制度与非正式制度影响农户林地流转的逻辑——基于5省1 086户农户的实证分析

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20221209

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 探讨产权交易制度对农户林地流转行为的影响，考察不同区位农户林地流转行为的异质性，为推动林地流转市场规范运行、促进林地适度规模经营提供政策参考。方法: 首先，从正式制度的产权交易平台、非正式制度的民间流转中介和介于二者之间的村组干预3个层面出发，构建产权交易制度对农户林地流转行为影响的理论分析逻辑框架；然后，基于浙江、江西、福建、四川、湖南5省1 086户农户调查数据，分析产权交易制度对不同区位农户林地流转行为的影响机理和分异特征。结果: 1) 产权交易平台的建立和村组干预可显著提高林地流转市场的活跃程度，促进农户林地转入，增加林地转入面积，但产权交易平台的建立会在一定程度上抑制农户林地转出；民间流转中介在显著活跃林地流转市场的同时能够加快农户林地转出。2) 产权交易制度对不同区位农户林地流转行为的影响存在异质性，产权交易平台的建立促进县城周边农户林地流转，民间流转中介的存在同时促进县城周边和远离县城农户转出林地，但对远离县城农户的影响程度大于县城周边农户；无论是县城周边农户还是远离县城农户的林地流转行为和林地流转面积均受村组干预不同程度的正向影响。结论: 要重视正式制度在促进林地规模经营中的转入效应，产权交易平台的建立和村组干预可为工商资本下乡从事林地规模经营提供林地基础，并进一步挖掘林地确权的红利；同时不可忽视非正式制度在促进林地转出中发挥的积极作用，特别在偏远地区的促进效果是正式制度无法替代的。现阶段，仍需进一步完善林业产权交易市场环境，加快建立有效的林地产权交易平台，不断规范民间流转中介的发展，充分发挥村组在促进林地流转中的积极作用，因地制宜引导农户科学有序流转林地。

关键词: 林地流转, 产权交易制度, 产权交易平台, 民间流转中介, 村组干预

Abstract:

Objective: The formation of the property rights transaction system is essential for realizing forestry property rights transactions. Studying its influence on farmers' forest land circulation behavior is of great significance and value for promoting the standardized operation of the forest land circulation market and moderate-scale management of forest land. Method: This study set out from three levels: the formal system of property rights trading platform, the informal system of non-governmental circulation intermediary, and the intervention of village cadres in between, and constructed an analysis framework of the impact of property rights trading system on farmers' forest land circulation. This paper investigated the influence mechanism and differentiation characteristics of the property rights transaction system on farmers' forest land transfer behavior under different location conditions by Probit and Tobit models from the survey data of farmers. Result: 1) From the point of view of circulation behavior and circulation scale, the establishment of property rights trading platform and village cadre intervention could significantly improve the activity of the forest land circulation market and, at the same time, could promote farmers' forest land transfer-in behavior and increase the transfer-in area. Still, establishing a property rights trading platform would inhibit farmers' forest land transfer-out. A non-governmental circulation intermediary could significantly activate the forest land circulation market, and at the same time, it could speed up the transfer-out of farmers' forest land. 2) Regional heterogeneity influenced the property rights transaction system on forest land circulation. Establishing a property rights trading platform could activate the farmers' forest land circulation around the county. In contrast, the existence of non-governmental circulation intermediary could promote the farmers around or far away from the county to transfer out their forest land simultaneously. Still, the impact on farmers far away from the county was more significant than that around the county. Whether farmers are around or far away from the county seat, their forest land circulation behavior and the decision-making of the circulation scale were positively influenced by the intervention of village cadres to varying degrees. Conclusion: Attention should be paid to the transfer-in effect of the formal system in forest land scale management. Establishing a property rights trading platform and the intervention of village cadres will provide forest land conditions for industrial and commercial capital to go to the countryside to engage in forest land scale management and further digging the dividends of forest land confirmation. At the same time, we can't ignore the positive role played by the informal system in promoting forest land transfer-out, especially in remote areas. At present, it is still necessary to further improve the market environment of forestry property rights trading, speed up the establishment of an effective forest land trading platform, constantly standardize the development of non-governmental circulation intermediaries, give full play to the positive role of village cadres in promoting forest land circulation, and guide the scientific and orderly circulation of forest land according to local conditions.

Key words: forest land circulation, property rights transaction system, property rights trading platform, non-governmental organizations, village cadre intervention

中图分类号:

F307.2

廖文梅,林静,张广来,童婷. 正式制度与非正式制度影响农户林地流转的逻辑——基于5省1 086户农户的实证分析[J]. 林业科学, 2022, 58(12): 89-103.

Wenmei Liao,Jing Lin,Guanglai Zhang,Ting Tong. Formal and Informal Institutions: Impact Differences in Forest Land Circulation——Based on the Empirical Analysis of 1 086 Farmers in 5 Provinces[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2022, 58(12): 89-103.

图/表 8

图1

表1

各变量样本数据描述性统计结果"

变量名称 Variables	变量说明 Variable description	均值 Mean	标准差 SD	最小值 Min.	最大值 Max.
被解释变量 Explained variables
林地流转Transfer	是否发生林地流转(否=0；是=1) Whether transfer or not(No=0；Yes=1)	0.18	0.39	0	1
林地转入Transfer-in	是否发生林地转入(否=0；是=1) Whether transfer-in or not(No=0；Yes=1)	0.12	0.33	0	1
林地转出Transfer-out	是否发生林地转出(否=0；是=1) Whether transfer-out or not(No=0；Yes=1)	0.06	0.24	0	1
林地流转面积Forest land transfer area/hm²	林地流转面积 Forest land transfer area	0.70	3.52	0	78.67
林地流转比例Forest land transfer rate	林地流转面积/流转前林地面积 Forest land transfer area/forest land area before transfer	0.89	6.31	0	126.83
块均流转面积Forest land transfer area of per block/hm²	林地流转面积/林地流转块数 Forest land transfer area/number of forest land transfer blocks	0.18	0.56	0	6.56
核心解释变量Key explanatory variables
正式制度Formal institutions	该区域是否有政府产权交易平台或中心(否=0；是=1) Property rights trading platform(No=0；Yes=1)	0.27	0.45	0	1
非正式制度Informal institutions	是否有民间流转中介 Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	0.21	0.41	0	1
中间制度Institutions between formal and informal institutions	是否受到村组干预(否=0；是=1) Village cadre intervention(No=0；Yes=1)	0.13	0.34	0	1
户主年龄Household age/a	户主实际年龄 Actual age of head of household	52.33	10.37	25	87
户主文化水平Household cultural level	户主受教育年限 Years of education of the head of household	7.02	2.72	0	16
林业技术培训Forestry technical training	是否参加过林业技术培训(否=0；是=1) Forestry technical training(No=0；Yes=1)	0.23	0.42	0	1
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	林业收入/家庭总收入(均为调查前一年) Forestry income/total household income	0.17	0.27	0	0
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	调查前一年家庭总收入/家庭总人口数(取对数) Total household income/total household population	9.06	0.97	5.59	12.57
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	家庭劳动力数量/家庭总人口数 Number of labor force/total household population	0.70	0.23	0	1
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	家庭中是否有成员是村干部(否=0；是=1) Whether any member is a village cadre (No = 0; Yes =1)	0.13	0.34	0	1
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households/hm²	林地流转前的面积 Area before forest land transfer	3.75	6.40	0.07	87
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	林地流转前面积/林地流转前块数 Number of forest land before transfer/area before transfer	0.99	1.83	0.02	22.33
林地离主干道的距离Distance from forest land to main road/km	以实际距离计算 Calculated by actual distance	1.55	1.60	0	20
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county/km	以实际距离计算 Calculated by actual distance	35.15	26.75	0	137
农户所在地的地形Terrain	农户所在地形是否为山地(否=0；是=1) Whether the terrain is mountainous (No = 0; Yes =1)	0.68	0.47	0	1
工具变量Instrumental variable
交易成本Transaction cost/hm^-2	村内除本户外平均每户农户拥有林地面积的倒数 Except the average woodland area owned by each forest farmer in the outdoor village (take the reciprocal)	1.27	2.27	0.05	15
省份虚拟变量(以福建省为参照) Virtual variables of provinces (with Fujian Province as reference)	湖南省=1；其他=0 Hunan Province=1; other=0	0.19	0.39	0	1
	江西省=1；其他=0 Jiangxi Province=1; other=0	0.20	0.40	0	1
	四川省=1；其他=0 Sichuan Province=1; other=0	0.22	0.41	0	1
	浙江省=1；其他=0 Zhejiang Province=1; other=0	0.20	0.40	0	1

表1

表2

农户林地流转行为决策的Probit模型估计结果①"

变量Variables	是否流转Transfer		是否转入Transfer-in		是否转出Transfer-out
变量Variables	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	0.779^*	0.018^*	0.783^***	0.036^***	-0.586^**	-0.026^***
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(-0.452)	(0.010)	(-0.255)	(0.011)	(-0.289)	(0.013)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	3.070^***	0.072^***	0.217	0.010	0.586^**	0.026^**
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(-0.853	(0.017)	(-0.297)	(0.013)	(-0.262)	(0.012)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	8.092^***	0.19^***	1.904^***	0.087^***	0.186	0.008
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(-1.296)	(0.018)	(-0.243)	(0.009)	(-0.258)	(0.012)
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	0.033	0.001	-0.002	0.000	0.027	0.001
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	(-0.046)	(0.001)	(-0.019)	(0.001)	(-0.019)	(0.001)
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	-0.019	0.000	0.082	0.004	-0.087	-0.004
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	(-0.090)	(0.002)	(-0.055)	(0.002)	(-0.071)	(0.003)
户主年龄Household age	-0.225^*	-0.005^*	-0.106	-0.005	0.076	0.003
户主年龄Household age	(-0.131)	(0.003)	(-0.079)	(0.004)	(-0.093)	(0.004)
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	0.002^*	0.000^*	0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.000
(-0.001)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)
户主文化水平Household cultural level	-0.013	0.000	-0.022	-0.001	0.091^**	0.004^**
户主文化水平Household cultural level	(-0.068)	(0.002)	(-0.042)	(0.002)	(-0.046)	(0.002)
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	6.821^***	0.160^***	2.288^***	0.104^***	3.431^***	0.155^***
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	(-1.112)	(0.017)	(-0.342)	(0.013)	(-0.341)	(0.013)
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	-1.948^***	-0.046^***	0.818^*	0.037^**	-2.170^***	-0.098^***
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	(-0.734)	(0.016)	(-0.421)	(0.019)	(-0.521)	(0.022)
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	0.692^***	0.016^***	0.149	0.007	0.070	0.003
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	(-0.224)	(0.005)	(-0.110)	(0.005)	(-0.120)	(0.005)
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	0.311	0.007	0.95^*	0.043^*	-0.475	-0.021
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	(-0.753)	(0.018)	(-0.515)	(0.023)	(-0.469)	(0.021)
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	0.642	0.015	0.064	0.003	-0.201	-0.009
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	(-0.423)	(0.010)	(-0.316)	(0.014)	(-0.307)	(0.014)
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	-0.152	-0.004	-0.198^**	-0.009^**	0.054	0.002
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	(-0.127)	(0.003)	(-0.100)	(0.004)	(-0.091)	(0.004)
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	0.027^***	0.001^***	-0.003	0.000	0.009^**	0.000^**
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	(-0.009)	(0.000)	(-0.006)	(0.000)	(-0.004)	(0.000)
农户所在地的地形Terrain	-1.135^**	-0.027^**	-0.234	-0.011	-0.165	-0.007
农户所在地的地形Terrain	(-0.488)	(0.011)	(-0.276)	(0.013)	(-0.292)	(0.013)
常量Constant	-8.006^**		-0.749		-9.163^***
常量Constant	(-3.476)		(-2.220)		(-2.676)
省份虚拟变量Virtual variables of provinces	已控制Controlled		已控制Controlled		已控制Controlled
样本量Observations	1 086		-1 086		-1 086

表2

表3

林地流转面积决策的Tobit模型估计结果"

变量Variables	流转面积Transfer	转入面积Transfer-in	转出面积Transfer-out
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	2.598^**	5.186^***	-0.663
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(-0.993)	(-1.503)	(-0.487)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	2.110^*	0.701	0.835
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(-1.178)	(-1.874)	(-0.528)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	10.664^***	19.091^***	0.242
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(-1.154)	(-2.262)	(-0.471)
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	0.067	-0.040	0.122^***
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	(-0.086)	(-0.128)	(-0.035)
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	0.115	0.506^*	-0.293^**
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	(-0.214)	(-0.306)	(-0.133)
户主年龄Household age	0.109	-0.226	0.226
户主年龄Household age	(-0.371)	(-0.564)	(-0.173)
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	-0.001	0.002	-0.002
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	(-0.003)	(-0.005)	(-0.002)
户主文化水平Household cultural level	-0.044	-0.069	0.090
户主文化水平Household cultural level	(-0.176)	(-0.270)	(-0.083)
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	12.449^***	9.442^***	5.716^***
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	(-1.435)	(-2.384)	(-0.791)
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	-2.603	0.831	-1.848^**
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	(-1.827)	(-2.751)	(-0.861)
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	0.452	0.963	0.013
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	(-0.509)	(-0.779)	(-0.231)
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	-1.366	0.603	-1.298
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	(-2.150)	(-3.340)	(-0.945)
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	-1.253	-1.594	-0.473
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	(-1.357)	(-2.127)	(-0.578)
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	-0.837^**	-0.834	-0.118
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	(-0.423)	(-0.700)	(-0.153)
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	0.026	-0.022	0.022^***
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	(-0.017)	(-0.029)	(-0.007)
农户所在地地形Terrain	0.221	-2.602^*	1.768^***
农户所在地地形Terrain	(-1.028)	(-1.556)	(-0.530)
常量Constant	-13.884	-9.054	-14.576^**
常量Constant	(-10.172)	(-15.442)	(-4.946)
省份虚拟变量Virtual variables of provinces	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled
样本量Observations	1 086	1 086	1 086

表3

表4

表5

Logit模型稳健性检验结果"

变量Variables	是否流转Transfer		是否转入Transfer-in		是否转出Transfer-out
变量Variables	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	1.572^*	0.016^*	1.384^***	0.034^***	-1.024^*	-0.023^*
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(-0.945)	(0.009)	(-0.479)	(0.012)	(-0.543)	(0.012)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	6.338^***	0.065^***	0.524	0.013	0.943^*	0.022^*
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(-1.880)	(0.017)	(-0.573)	(0.014)	(-0.520)	(0.012)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	18.142^***	0.186^***	3.481^***	0.086^***	0.116	0.003
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(-3.485)	(0.021)	(-0.465)	(0.008)	(-0.488)	(0.011)
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	0.106	0.001	-0.002	0.001	0.046	0.001
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	(-0.112)	(0.001)	(-0.033)	(0.001)	(-0.037)	(0.001)
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	-0.124	-0.001	0.150	0.004	-0.144	-0.003
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	(-0.199)	(0.002)	(-0.101)	(0.003)	(-0.129)	(0.003)
户主年龄Household age	-0.590^**	-0.006^**	-0.179	-0.004	0.118	0.003
户主年龄Household age	(-0.296)	(0.003)	(-0.158)	(0.004)	(-0.174)	(0.004)
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	0.006^**	0.001^**	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.000
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	(-0.003)	(0.001)	(-0.001)	(0.001)	(-0.002)	(0.000)
户主文化水平Household cultural level	-0.021	0.001	-0.052	-0.001	0.184^*	0.004^*
户主文化水平Household cultural level	(-0.138)	(0.001)	(-0.080)	(0.002)	(-0.097)	(0.002)
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	15.835^***	0.162^***	4.161^***	0.103^***	7.000^***	0.16^***
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	(-3.161)	(0.021)	(-0.627)	(0.014)	(-0.807)	(0.015)
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	-3.835^**	-0.039^**	1.550^*	0.038^*	-3.852^***	-0.088^***
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	(-1.618)	(0.016)	(-0.805)	(0.020)	(-0.995)	(0.021)
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	1.656^***	0.017^***	0.279	0.007	0.109	0.003
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	(-0.559)	(0.005)	(-0.207)	(0.005)	(-0.226)	(0.005)
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	1.105	0.011	1.635^*	0.041^*	-0.907	-0.021
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	(-1.614)	(0.017)	(-0.961)	(0.024)	(-0.916)	(0.021)
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	1.574^*	0.016^*	0.082	0.002	-0.311	-0.007
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	(-0.861)	(0.008)	(-0.580)	(0.014)	(-0.577)	(0.013)
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	-0.367	-0.004	-0.356	-0.009^**	0.109	0.003
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	(-0.247)	(0.002)	(-0.183)	(0.004)	(-0.181)	(0.004)
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	0.060^***	0.001^***	-0.006^*	0.001	0.021^**	0.001
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	(-0.020)	(0.000)	(-0.010)	(0.001)	(-0.009)	(0.001)
农户所在地地形Terrain	-2.105^**	-0.022^**	-0.412	-0.010	-0.439	-0.010
农户所在地地形Terrain	(-1.011)	(0.010)	(-0.547)	(0.014)	(-0.620)	(0.014)
常量Constant	-17.322^*		-1.514		-17.045^***
常量Constant	(-7.391)		(-4.347)		(-5.010)
省份虚拟变量Virtual variables of provinces	已控制Controlled		已控制Controlled		已控制Controlled
样本量Observations	1 086		-1 086		-1 086

表5

表6

替换被解释变量的Tobit模型稳健性检验结果"

变量Variables	流转比例Transfer rate			块均流转面积Transfer area of per block
变量Variables	是否流转Transfer	是否转入Transfer-in	是否转出Transfer-out	是否流转Transfer	是否转入Transfer-in	是否转出Transfer-out
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	1.945^**	0.022^***	1.526^***	0.043^***	-0.808^**	-0.030^**
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(-0.784)	(0.008)	(-0.445)	(0.012)	(-0.395)	(0.014)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	4.374^***	0.049^***	0.230	0.006	1.121^***	0.041^***
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(-1.206)	(0.012)	(-0.534)	(0.015)	(-0.426)	(0.015)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	12.691^***	0.142^***	5.279^***	0.147^***	0.252	0.009
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(-1.924)	(0.011)	(-0.607)	(0.011)	(-0.372)	(0.014)
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	0.132^**	0.001^**	-0.037	-0.001	0.090^***	0.003^***
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	(-0.058)	(0.001)	(-0.034)	(0.001)	(-0.034)	(0.001)
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	0.060	0.001	0.295^***	0.008^***	-0.291^*	-0.011^**
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	(-0.147)	(0.002)	(-0.095)	(0.003)	(-0.149)	(0.005)
户主年龄Household age	-0.082	-0.001	-0.249^*	-0.007^*	0.162	0.006
户主年龄Household age	(-0.253)	(0.003)	(-0.140)	(0.004)	(-0.134)	(0.005)
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	0.001	0.000	0.002^*	0.000^*	-0.002	0.000
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	(-0.002)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)
户主文化水平Household cultural level	-0.023	0.000	-0.041	-0.001	0.048	0.002
户主文化水平Household cultural level	(-0.122)	(0.001)	(-0.073)	(0.002)	(-0.066)	(0.002)
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	10.207^***	0.115^***	2.529^***	0.071^***	5.626^***	0.206^***
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	(-1.623)	(0.013)	(-0.579)	(0.015)	(-0.688)	(0.023)
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	0.338	0.004	1.434	0.040	-0.650	-0.024
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	(-1.387)	(0.016)	(-0.915)	(0.025)	(-0.749)	(0.027)
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	0.942^**	0.011^**	0.248	0.007	-0.059	-0.002
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	(-0.389)	(0.004)	(-0.198)	(0.005)	(-0.178)	(0.006)
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	-4.535^***	-0.051^***	0.566	0.016	-2.114^***	-0.077^***
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	(-1.457)	(0.015)	(-0.715)	(0.020)	(-0.694)	(0.024)
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	-0.448	-0.005	-0.559	-0.016	-0.107	-0.004
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	(-0.888)	(0.010)	(-0.535)	(0.015)	(-0.459)	(0.017)
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	-1.219^***	-0.014^***	-0.161	-0.004	-0.020	-0.001
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	(-0.387)	(0.004)	(-0.144)	(0.004)	(-0.122)	(0.004)
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	0.046^***	0.001^***	-0.020^***	-0.001^***	0.019^***	0.001^***
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	(-0.015)	(0.000)	(-0.008)	(0.000)	(-0.006)	(0.000)
农户所在地地形Terrain	-0.661	-0.007	-1.907^***	-0.053^***	1.481^***	0.054^***
农户所在地地形Terrain	(-0.695)	(0.008)	(-0.511)	(0.014)	(-0.416)	(0.014)
常量Constant	-4.680		4.455		-11.457^***
常量Constant	(-6.207)		(-3.919)		(-3.740)
省份虚拟变量Virtual variables of provinces	已控制Controlled			已控制Controlled
样本量Observations	1 086		1 086		1 086

表6

表7

不同区位农户林地流转行为的Probit模型估计结果"

变量Variables	县城周边农户Farmers around the county				远离县城农户Farmers far from the county
	是否转入Transfer-in		是否转出Transfer-out		是否转入Transfer-in		是否转出Transfer-out
	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx	系数Coef.	边际效应dy/dx
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	0.586^*	0.031^*	-0.493^*	-0.034^*	0.750	0.084	0.341	0.051
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(-0.306)	(0.016)	(-0.291)	(0.020)	(-0.786)	(0.086)	(-0.614)	(0.092)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	0.063	0.003	0.647^**	0.045^**	1.310	0.146	2.079^**	0.312^***
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(-0.331)	(0.017)	(-0.283)	(0.019)	(-0.893)	(0.093)	(-0.843)	(0.106)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	2.926^***	0.154^***	0.567^**	0.039^**	3.255^***	0.364^***	2.259^***	0.339^***
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(-0.351)	(0.014)	(-0.265)	(0.018)	(-1.021)	(0.075)	(-0.846)	(0.103)
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	0.041^*	0.002^*	0.013	0.001	-0.230^**	-0.026^***	0.277^***	0.041^***
农户拥有的林地面积Area of forest land owned by households	(-0.023)	(0.001)	(-0.021)	(0.001)	(-0.101)	(0.010)	(-0.104)	(0.013)
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	-0.005	0.000	-0.043	-0.003	0.818^**	0.091^***	-0.791^**	-0.119^**
林地细碎化程度Degree of forest land fragmentation	(-0.068)	(0.004)	(-0.057)	(0.004)	(-0.348)	(0.034)	(-0.357)	(0.049)
户主年龄Household age	-0.144	-0.008	0.248^**	0.017^**	0.083	0.009	-0.141	-0.021
户主年龄Household age	(-0.094)	(0.005)	(-0.109)	(0.007)	(-0.196)	(0.022)	(-0.156)	(0.023)
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	0.001	0.000	-0.002^**	0.000^**	-0.001	0.000	0.001	0.000
户主年龄的平方Household age squared	(-0.001)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)	(-0.002)	(0.000)	(-0.001)	(0.000)
户主文化水平Household cultural level	-0.098^**	-0.005^**	0.136^***	0.009^***	0.411^*	0.046^**	-0.103	-0.015
户主文化水平Household cultural level	(-0.048)	(0.002)	(-0.046)	(0.003)	(-0.217)	(0.022)	(-0.124)	(0.018)
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	1.371^***	0.072^***	1.948^***	0.135^***	2.587^***	0.034^***	2.358^***	0.064^***
是否参加林业技术培训Forestry technical training	(-0.355)	(0.018)	(-0.332)	(0.022)	(-0.359)	(0.020)	(-0.420)	(0.034)
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	0.798^*	0.042^*	-1.982^***	-0.138^***	-1.142	-0.128	-0.800	-0.120
林业收入占比Proportion of forestry income	(-0.475)	(0.025)	(-0.596)	(0.040)	(-1.233)	(0.134)	(-0.912)	(0.133)
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	0.143	0.008	-0.078	-0.005	0.222	0.025	0.198	0.030
家庭人均总收入Per capita household income	(-0.136)	(0.007)	(-0.121)	(0.008)	(-0.337)	(0.037)	(-0.299)	(0.044)
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	1.108^*	0.058^*	-0.558	-0.039	-2.138	-0.239	0.306	0.046
劳动力数量占比Proportion of labor force	(-0.633)	(0.033)	(-0.519)	(0.036)	(-1.777)	(0.192)	(-1.296)	(0.194)
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	0.031	0.002	-0.253	-0.018	-1.456	-0.163	0.108	0.016
是否有村干部Whether a village cadre or not	(-0.371)	(0.020)	(-0.329)	(0.023)	(-0.950)	(0.102)	(-0.613)	(0.092)
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	-0.356^**	-0.019^**	0.033	0.002	-0.037	-0.004	0.085	0.013
林地离主干道的距离Distance of woodland and main road	(-0.175)	(0.009)	(-0.086)	(0.006)	(-0.252)	(0.028)	(-0.201)	(0.030)
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	-0.054^***	-0.003^***	0.023^*	0.002^*	-0.010	-0.001	0.024^*	0.004^**
村委会离县中心的距离Distance from village committee to county	(-0.017)	(0.001)	(-0.013)	(0.001)	(-0.014)	(0.002)	(-0.013)	(0.002)
农户所在地地形Terrain	-0.597^*	-0.031^*	0.641^**	0.045^**	-1.267	-0.142	0.687	0.103
农户所在地地形Terrain	(-0.312)	(0.016)	(-0.257)	(0.018)	(-0.876)	(0.094)	(-0.700)	(0.102)
常量Constant	3.801		-10.035^***		-3.45		-1.257
常量Constant	(-2.627)		(-3.032)		(-4.932)		(-4.977)
省份虚拟变量Virtual variables of provinces	已控制Controlled				已控制Controlled
样本量Observations	658				428

表7

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变量Variables	Ⅳ-Probit：林地流转行为Ⅳ-Probit: woodland circulation behavior			Ⅳ-Tobit：林地流转面积Ⅳ-Tobit: woodland circulation area
变量Variables	是否流转Transfer	是否转入Transfer-in	是否转出Transfer-out	流转面积Transfer	转入面积Transfer-in	转出面积Transfer-out
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	0.052	0.652	-0.383^**	4.970	11.440	-0.564
是否有产权交易平台Property rights trading platform	(0.116)	(0.407)	(0.171)	(4.588)	(10.739)	(1.135)
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	0.299^*	-0.078	0.286	-1.379	-8.692	0.608
是否有民间流转中介Intermediary organization engaged in circulation	(0.182)	(0.260)	(0.227)	(6.975)	(16.238)	(1.785)
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	5.122^***	4.112^*	-3.335^***	110.684	280.108	-2.109
是否受到村组干预Village cadre intervention	(0.386)	(2.374)	(0.741)	(160.342)	(373.204)	(40.184)
控制变量Control variables	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled	已控制Controlled
Wald Chi-square	33.900^***	0.180	4.490^**	1.700	0.710	0.000
P	0.000	0.668	0.034	0.192	0.154	0.949
样本量Observations	1 086	1 086	1 086	1 086	1 086	1 086

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