林业科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (8): 206-218.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250684
收稿日期:2025-11-14
修回日期:2026-03-23
出版日期:2026-08-10
发布日期:2026-08-20
通讯作者:
赵荣
E-mail:zhaorong6@vip.163.com
基金资助:
Guoxing Huang,Shaozhi Chen,Rong Zhao*(
)
Received:2025-11-14
Revised:2026-03-23
Online:2026-08-10
Published:2026-08-20
Contact:
Rong Zhao
E-mail:zhaorong6@vip.163.com
摘要:
目的: 从组态视角解析影响林下经济发展效率的多重条件和提升路径,厘清多要素协同作用的内在机制,为科学制定林下经济发展策略提供决策参考。方法: 基于技术?组织?环境(TOE)理论框架,以2013—2022年全国31个省(区、市)面板数据为研究样本,采用超效率SBM模型和动态定性比较分析(QCA)方法,系统剖析林下经济发展效率提升的多元组态路径,揭示其时空变化规律和演化特征。结果: 1) 科技创新水平、科技推广程度、企业规模能力、政府扶持强度、市场消费能力以及森林生态环境单一要素均无法构成高林下经济发展效率的必要条件,其中科技创新水平在效率提升过程中具有普适性支撑作用。2) 基于组态分析的因果关系非对称性,得到实现高林下经济发展效率的4条路径,以及导致非高林下经济发展效率的2条路径。3) 从时间维度来看,资源禀赋?市场驱动型路径对高林下经济发展效率的解释效力呈逐步增强趋势,其余组态路径的解释力具有良好鲁棒性。4) 从空间维度来看,所有高林下经济发展效率的组态路径具有空间区域集聚特征。具体而言:科技赋能?企业推动型路径主要适用于中部和东北地区,政府引导?要素联动型路径主要适用于西部地区,资源禀赋?市场驱动型路径主要适用于东部沿海地区,组织协同?技术突破型路径主要适用于西部和部分东部地区。结论: 林下经济发展效率提升并非依赖单一要素的独立作用,而是技术、组织、环境多维度要素共同作用的结果。各地区应从区域整体视角出发,注重不同要素间的精准协同匹配,制定差异化发展策略,以系统性提升林下经济发展效率。
中图分类号:
黄国星,陈绍志,赵荣. 组态视角下林下经济发展效率提升路径[J]. 林业科学, 2026, 62(8): 206-218.
Guoxing Huang,Shaozhi Chen,Rong Zhao. Improvement Paths of the Non-Timber Forest-Based Economics Development Efficiency from the Configuration Perspective[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2026, 62(8): 206-218.
表1
林下经济发展效率评价指标体系"
| 类别Category | 一级指标Primary indicator | 二级指标Secondary indicator |
| 投入指标Input indicators | 劳动力投入Labor input | 林业从业人员数量Number of forestry employees |
| 林业职工平均工资Average salary of forestry workers | ||
| 林业人员受教育程度Education level of forestry personnel | ||
| 资本投入Capita input | 林下经济累计完成投资Cumulative investment in non-timber forest-based economics | |
| 林地投入Forest land input | 林地资源利用面积Forest land utilization area | |
| 产出指标Output indicators | 产业总产值Industrial output value | 林下经济年产值Annual output value of non-timber forest-based economics |
表2
林下经济发展效率的影响因素指标说明"
| 变量名称Variable name | 具体指标Specific indicators | 属性Attribute |
| 科技创新水平 Level of technological innovation | 林业研发经费投入Forestry R&D investment | + |
| 专利申请授权数量Number of authorized patent applications | + | |
| 科技推广程度 Degree of technology promotion | 林业科技推广面积Area of forestry technology promotion | + |
| 林业示范基地面积Area of forestry demonstration base | + | |
| 企业规模能力 Enterprise scale capability | 正常经营的林业企业数量Number of forestry enterprises in normal operation | + |
| 拥有知识产权的林业企业占比Proportion of forestry enterprises with intellectual property rights | + | |
| 政府扶持强度 Strength of government support | 林业固定资产投资Forestry fixed asset investment | + |
| 林业经营技术培训Forestry management technology training | + | |
| 市场消费能力 Market consumption capacity | 居民人均消费支出Per capita consumption expenditure of residents | + |
| 发展享受型消费支出占比Proportion of enjoyment-oriented consumption expenditure | + | |
森林生态环境 Forest ecological environment | 森林覆盖率Forest coverage rate | + |
| 林业有害生物防治率Forest pest control rate | + | |
| 人工造林面积占比Proportion of artificial afforestation area | + | |
| 森林火灾受害面积Area affected by forest fires | ? |
表3
变量校准锚点"
| 变量名称Variable name | 校准锚点Calibration anchor | ||
| 完全隶属Completely affiliated | 交叉点Intersection | 完全不隶属Unaffiliated | |
| 林下经济发展效率Development efficiency of non-timber forest-based economics | 0.986 | 0.606 | 0.305 |
| 科技创新水平Level of technological innovation | 0.283 | 0.107 | 0.021 |
| 科技推广程度Degree of technology promotion | 0.184 | 0.047 | 0.012 |
| 企业规模能力Enterprise scale capability | 0.263 | 0.078 | 0.018 |
| 政府扶持强度Strength of government support | 0.299 | 0.024 | 0.005 |
| 市场消费能力Market consumption capacity | 0.474 | 0.257 | 0.166 |
| 森林生态环境Forest ecological environment | 0.375 | 0.234 | 0.128 |
表4
单个条件的必要性分析结果"
| 条件变量 Condition variable | 高林下经济发展效率High development efficiency of non-timber forest-based economics | 非高林下经济发展效率Non-high development efficiency of non-timber forest-based economics | |||||||
| 汇总一致性Summary consistency | 汇总覆盖度Summary coverage | 组间一致性调整距离Adjustment range of inter-group consistency | 组内一致性调整距离Adjustment range of intra-group consistency | 汇总一致性Summary consistency | 汇总覆盖度Summary coverage | 组间一致性调整距离Adjustment range of inter-group consistency | 组内一致性调整距离Adjustment range of intra-group consistency | ||
| 高科技创新水平High level of technological innovation | 0.648 | 0.641 | 0.222 | 0.560 | 0.425 | 0.447 | 0.174 | 0.212 | |
| 非高科技创新水平Non-high level of technological innovation | 0.442 | 0.419 | 0.331 | 0.677 | 0.659 | 0.665 | 0.124 | 0.140 | |
| 高科技推广程度High degree of technology promotion | 0.602 | 0.607 | 0.265 | 0.560 | 0.446 | 0.479 | 0.374 | 0.203 | |
| 非高科技推广程度Non-high degree of technology promotion | 0.483 | 0.451 | 0.298 | 0.689 | 0.634 | 0.629 | 0.240 | 0.141 | |
| 高企业规模能力High enterprise scale capability | 0.655 | 0.650 | 0.429 | 0.368 | 0.425 | 0.449 | 0.523 | 0.280 | |
| 非高企业规模能力Non-high enterprise scale capability | 0.445 | 0.421 | 0.578 | 0.607 | 0.669 | 0.674 | 0.305 | 0.143 | |
| 高政府扶持强度High strength of government support | 0.626 | 0.634 | 0.058 | 0.584 | 0.431 | 0.465 | 0.193 | 0.207 | |
| 非高政府扶持强度Non-high strength of government support | 0.472 | 0.439 | 0.065 | 0.695 | 0.661 | 0.653 | 0.091 | 0.155 | |
| 高市场消费能力High market consumption capacity | 0.514 | 0.443 | 0.629 | 0.543 | 0.582 | 0.606 | 0.385 | 0.179 | |
| 非高市场消费能力Non-high market consumption capacity | 0.547 | 0.573 | 0.552 | 0.549 | 0.513 | 0.524 | 0.436 | 0.179 | |
| 高森林生态环境High forest ecological environment | 0.537 | 0.520 | 0.327 | 0.617 | 0.535 | 0.552 | 0.425 | 0.166 | |
| 非高森林生态环境Non-high forest ecological environment | 0.537 | 0.521 | 0.305 | 0.660 | 0.534 | 0.551 | 0.407 | 0.147 | |
表5
组间一致性调整距离大于0.2的因果组合"
| 因果组合 Causal combination | 指标类型 Indicator type | 年份Year | |||||||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ||
| 高科技创新水平?高发展效率High level of technological innovation - high development efficiency | 组间一致 Inter-group consistency | 0.373 | 0.544 | 0.579 | 0.605 | 0.753 | 0.722 | 0.769 | 0.908 | 0.728 | 0.754 |
| 组间覆盖度Inter-group coverage | 0.824 | 0.677 | 0.650 | 0.533 | 0.600 | 0.604 | 0.638 | 0.636 | 0.613 | 0.712 | |
| 高企业规模能力?高发展效率High enterprise scale capability - high development efficiency | 组间一致性Inter-group consistency | 0.778 | 0.811 | 0.909 | 0.848 | 0.824 | 0.781 | 0.666 | 0.339 | 0.276 | 0.254 |
| 组间覆盖度Inter-group coverage | 0.850 | 0.726 | 0.679 | 0.550 | 0.560 | 0.555 | 0.555 | 0.622 | 0.757 | 0.907 | |
| 高市场消费能力?高发展效率High market consumption capacity - high development efficiency | 组间一致性Inter-group consistency | 0.115 | 0.148 | 0.226 | 0.373 | 0.485 | 0.651 | 0.662 | 0.834 | 0.866 | 0.927 |
| 组间覆盖度Inter-group coverage | 0.414 | 0.366 | 0.452 | 0.501 | 0.503 | 0.530 | 0.480 | 0.460 | 0.498 | 0.554 | |
| 非高市场消费能力?高发展效率Non-high market consumption capacity - high development efficiency | 组间一致性Inter-group consistency | 0.920 | 0.903 | 0.864 | 0.790 | 0.660 | 0.483 | 0.518 | 0.281 | 0.244 | 0.124 |
| 组间覆盖度Inter-group coverage | 0.720 | 0.624 | 0.632 | 0.511 | 0.488 | 0.463 | 0.508 | 0.468 | 0.519 | 0.611 | |
| 非高市场消费能力?非高发展效率Non-high market consumption capacity - non-high development efficiency | 组间一致性Inter-group consistency | 0.752 | 0.639 | 0.503 | 0.462 | 0.508 | 0.506 | 0.617 | 0.854 | 0.827 | 0.970 |
| 组间覆盖度Inter-group coverage | 0.653 | 0.741 | 0.828 | 0.796 | 0.792 | 0.746 | 0.721 | 0.647 | 0.607 | 0.532 | |
表6
林下经济发展效率的组态结果①"
| 条件变量Condition variable | 高组态结果High configuration result | 非高组态结果Non-high configuration result | |||||
| S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | N1 | N2 | ||
| 科技创新水平Level of technological innovation | ● | ● | ● | ● | ? | ? | |
| 科技推广程度Degree of technology promotion | ● | ● | ● | ? | ● | ||
| 企业规模能力Enterprise scale capability | ● | ● | ● | ● | ? | ||
| 政府扶持强度Strength of government support | ● | ● | ● | ? | |||
| 市场消费能力Market consumption capacity | ? | ● | ● | ? | |||
| 森林生态环境Forest ecological environment | ● | ● | ? | ? | ? | ||
| 一致性Consistency | 0.865 | 0.920 | 0.863 | 0.893 | 0.846 | 0.873 | |
| PRI | 0.812 | 0.869 | 0.807 | 0.820 | 0.803 | 0.815 | |
| 原始覆盖度Original coverage | 0.246 | 0.339 | 0.246 | 0.117 | 0.362 | 0.082 | |
| 唯一覆盖度Unique coverage | 0.028 | 0.076 | 0.087 | 0.013 | 0.337 | 0.057 | |
| 组间一致性调整距离Adjustment range of inter-group consistency | 0.102 | 0.076 | 0.187 | 0.012 | 0.121 | 0.109 | |
| 组内一致性调整距离Adjustment range of intra-group consistency | 0.286 | 0.228 | 0.239 | 0.210 | 0.531 | 0.438 | |
| 总体一致性Overall consistency | 0.864 | 0.843 | |||||
| 总体PRI Overall PRI | 0.802 | 0.798 | |||||
| 总体覆盖度Overall coverage | 0.483 | 0.419 | |||||
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