中国林业经济韧性非均衡性及其影响因素

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240287

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 在建设产业韧性强的林业强国背景下，探究中国林业经济韧性非均衡性特征及其影响因素，为林业高质量发展提供参考。方法: 基于2011—2020年中国30个省域单元面板数据，构建林业经济韧性水平评价指标体系测度林业经济韧性水平，采用熵权法、空间自相关分析法、Dagum基尼系数分解法、Kernel密度估计法、空间收敛模型、地理探测器等方法探究中国林业经济韧性非均衡性特征及其影响因素。结果: 1） 2011—2020年中国林业经济韧性水平总体呈增长态势，由2011年的3.19增至2020年的4.53，呈东南高、西北低的空间特征，空间集聚特征主要呈显著的高-高聚集、高-低聚集和低-高聚集。2） 2011—2020年中国林业经济韧性水平非均衡性逐渐扩大，Dagum基尼系数由2011年的0.306 5增至2020年的0.325 9。3）基于东中西部分区的结果表明，超变密度和地区间差异是中国林业经济韧性非均衡性的主要影响因素；基于胡焕庸线分区的结果表明，地区内差异和地区间差异是中国林业经济韧性非均衡性的主要影响因素。4） 2011—2020年中国林业经济韧性水平不存在σ收敛特征，存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征。基于东中西部分区的结果表明，中国及各地区林业经济韧性水平的条件β收敛速度快于绝对β收敛速度，且中部地区的条件β收敛速度最快；基于胡焕庸线分区的结果表明，胡焕庸线以西地区的收敛速度高于中国和胡焕庸线以东地区。5）适应力、可持续性、产业协作性以及林业农药使用量、林下经济产值、林业旅游与休闲产业带动产值等是中国林业经济韧性水平变化的重要影响因素。结论: 要大力发展绿色、生态和智慧林业，推动林业生态链、产业链和价值链提质增效，完善森林资源高水平保护和培育机制，提高林业适应不确定性风险的能力，科学发展森林旅游、森林康养和林下经济新业态，实现林业三产融合发展，积极服务区域经济，推动林业经济与区域经济协同发展。

关键词: 林业经济韧性, 非均衡性, 空间收敛, 地理探测器, 胡焕庸线

Abstract:

Objective: In the context of building a forestry power with strong industrial resilience, the characteristics of the non-equilibrium of forestry economic resilience in China and its influencing factors are explored to provide a scientific basis for the high-quality development of forestry. Method: Based on the panel data of 30 provincial units in China from 2011 to 2020, the evaluation index system of forestry economic resilience level is constructed to measure the level of forestry economy resilience, and entropy weight method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, Kernel density estimation method, spatial convergence model, and geographic detector are adopted to analysis the non-equilibrium characteristics of and its influencing factors of the forestry economy resilience in China. Result: 1) The forestry economic resilience of China from 2011 to 2020 shows an overall growth trend, increasing from 3.19 in 2011 to 4.53 in 2020, with spatial characteristics of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The spatial agglomeration characteristics mainly present significant high-high agglomeration, high-low agglomeration, and low-high agglomeration. 2) The forestry economic resilience of China gradually expanded from 2011 to 2020, and the Dagum Gini coefficient increased from 0.306 5 in 2011 to 0.325 9 in 2020. 3) The result based on the east-central-west zoning indicates that hypervariable density and inter-regional differences are the main influencing factors on the non-equilibrium of the forestry economic resilience of China. The result based on the Hu Huanyong line zoning shows that intra-regional and inter-regional differences are the main influencing factors of the non-equilibrium of the forestry economic resilience of China. 4) There is no σ-convergence feature, and there are absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence features in the forestry economic resilience of China from 2011 to 2020. The result based on the east-central-west zoning indicates the conditional β convergence of the forestry economic resilience of China. The conditional β convergence of each region is faster than the absolute β convergence, and the central region has the quickest rate of conditional β convergence. The result based on the Hu Huanyong line zoning shows the convergence speed of the west region of the Hu Huanyong line is higher than that of China and the eastern region of the Hu Huanyong line. 5) Adaptive capacity, sustainability, industrial multi-collaborative, forestry pesticide use, value of non-timber forest-based economy output, forestry tourism, and leisure industry driven output value are important influencing factors for the forestry economic resilience of China. Conclusion: It is necessary to vigorously develop green, ecological, and intelligent forestry, promote the enhancement of the quality and efficiency of the forestry ecological chain, industrial chain, and value chain, improve the mechanism for high-level protection and cultivation of forest resources, improve the ability of forestry to adapt to the risk of uncertainty, scientifically develop new forms of forest tourism, forest recreation and non-timber forest-based economy, realize the integrated development of the three industries of forestry, actively serve the regional economy, and promote synergistic development of the forestry economy and the regional economy.

Key words: forestry economic resilience, non-equilibrium, spatial convergence, geographical detector, Hu Huanyong line

中图分类号:

S7-9
F307.2

徐彩瑶,王朝勇,穆亚丽,孔凡斌,廖文梅. 中国林业经济韧性非均衡性及其影响因素[J]. 林业科学, 2025, 61(4): 196-214.

Caiyao Xu,Chaoyong Wang,Yali Mu,Fanbin Kong,Wenmei Liao. Non-Equilibrium of China’s Forestry Economic Resilience and Its Influencing Factors[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(4): 196-214.

图/表 14

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

表2

表3

中国林业经济韧性水平的条件β收敛检验结果①"

变量 Variables	中国 China	东部 East region	中部 Central region	西部 West region	胡焕庸线以东地区 East of Hu Huanyong line	胡焕庸线以西地区 West of Hu Huanyong line
β	?0.619 6^***	?0.617 8^***	?0.983 0^***	?0.506 7^***	?0.667 2^***	?0.883 3^*
β	(?9.43)	(?3.84)	(?8.72)	(?3.97)	(?8.94)	(?4.05)
lnX1	?0.547 4^**	?0.431 0	?0.420 4	?0.576 6	?0.604 0^**	6.346 5
lnX1	(?2.16)	(?0.83)	(?0.52)	(?0.93)	(?2.03)	(1.15)
lnX2	?0.005 5	0.159 2	0.178 0^***	?0.143 0	0.046 4	?0.035 1
lnX2	(?0.11)	(1.07)	(2.91)	(?1.21)	(0.82)	(?0.17)
lnX3	?0.009 2	0.060 4	0.081 9	?0.219 3	?0.039 7	?0.035 2
lnX3	(?0.10)	(0.25)	(0.62)	(?1.07)	(?0.40)	(?0.03)
lnX4	0.067 9	0.214 3	0.104 6	?0.142 3	0.193 2^**	?0.301 8
lnX4	(1.13)	(1.38)	(0.65)	(?1.38)	(2.53)	(?0.44)
lnX5	0.190 4^**	0.221 5	0.219 2^**	0.104 1	0.199 6^**	?0.578 4
lnX5	(2.31)	(1.39)	(2.21)	(0.57)	(2.30)	(?0.82)
lnX6	?0.045 4	0.161 6	?0.056 1	?0.071 6	?0.158 5^*	1.216 5
lnX6	(?0.64)	(0.88)	(?0.27)	(?0.55)	(?1.94)	(0.64)
lnX7	0.088 1^**	?0.044 9	0.127 5	0.127 1^**	0.075 8	?0.033 7
lnX7	(2.29)	(?0.37)	(1.38)	(2.32)	(1.51)	(?0.15)
lnX8	0.035 9	?0.104 4	0.170 8^**	0.049 3	0.026 0	?0.175 5
lnX8	(1.22)	(?1.36)	(2.57)	(0.99)	(0.84)	(?0.58)
lnX9	0.223 3^**	0.310 3	0.126 9	0.431 1	0.207 9^*	?3.671 2
lnX9	(2.01)	(1.44)	(0.99)	(1.10)	(1.82)	(?2.10)
lnX10	0.008 0	?0.242 0^*	?0.039 9	?0.128 6	0.020 8	7.153 4
lnX10	(0.09)	(?1.71)	(?0.22)	(?0.30)	(0.23)	(1.50)
lnX11	0.310 0	0.829 1	0.347 8	0.499 9	0.425 4	?9.270 3
lnX11	(1.22)	(1.60)	(0.82)	(0.60)	(1.57)	(?1.45)
lnX12	0.025 6^***	0.014 9	?0.004 0	0.076 5^***	0.018 5^*	?0.001 2
lnX12	(3.08)	(0.91)	(?0.32)	(3.88)	(1.95)	(?0.02)
lnX13	0.048 9^*	?0.001 7	0.014 3	0.077 3	0.043 0	0.270 6
lnX13	(1.79)	(?0.03)	(0.33)	(1.13)	(1.36)	(1.90)
lnX14	0.021 0^*	0.007 6	0.051 7^***	0.032 5	0.033 0^***	0.049 1
lnX14	(1.95)	(0.36)	(3.16)	(1.14)	(2.78)	(1.08)
lnX15	0.045 5^***	0.014 7	0.109 2^***	0.082 4^***	0.056 0^***	?0.004 4
lnX15	(5.25)	(1.10)	(5.93)	(3.90)	(5.83)	(?0.25)
lnX16	0.041 5^***	0.041 1^**	0.064 7^***	0.057 2^***	0.042 6^***	0.050 4
lnX16	(4.91)	(2.40)	(5.84)	(3.16)	(4.79)	(1.06)
lnX17	?0.003 3	?0.055 6	?0.454 1	0.369 8	?0.083 7	?1.711 2
lnX17	(?0.01)	(?0.10)	(?0.33)	(0.48)	(?0.20)	(?0.66)
lnX18	0.006 7	0.003 0	0.007 9	?0.015 3	0.013 2	0.233 8
lnX18	(0.46)	(0.08)	(0.29)	(?0.53)	(0.83)	(1.31)
N	233	79	66	88	199	34
ν	0.096 7	0.096 2	0.407 5	0.070 7	0.110 0	0.214 8
地区效应 Regional effect	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled
时间效应 Time effect	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled	控制 Controlled
常数项Constant	?2.561 7	?3.616 3	?5.003 8	?1.371 9	?4.007 7^**	?102.196 1
常数项Constant	(?1.43)	(?1.30)	(?0.80)	(?0.23)	(?2.53)	(?1.44)
R²	0.611	0.770	0.878	0.744	0.625	0.995

表3

表4

中国林业经济韧性水平影响因素的单因子探测结果"

影响因素 Driving factor		林业经济韧性水平 Forestry economic resilience level
影响因素 Driving factor		2011	2014	2017	2020
一级指标 Primary indicators	抵抗力Resistance	0.681 6	0.688 7	0.712 8	0.604 1
	适应力Adaptive capacity	0.793 8	0.739 3	0.781 5	0.698 7
	变革力Transformative capacity	0.478 8	0.668 0	0.642 0	0.794 3
二级指标 Secondary indicators	内在稳定性Intrinsic stability	0.564 7	0.512 7	0.606 9	0.689 1
	产供鲁棒性Production and supply robustness	0.284 0	0.319 7	0.349 9	0.410 3
	可持续性Sustainability	0.603 0	0.608 3	0.628 9	0.622 5
	可恢复性Recoverability	0.537 1	0.489 4	0.553 8	0.574 8
	产业协作性Industrial collaborative	0.572 3	0.712 7	0.795 9	0.875 1
	科技进步性Technological progressiveness	0.384 1	0.338 2	0.528 0	0.507 0
三级指标 Tertiary indicators	林地面积Forestland area	0.396 9	0.402 4	0.391 8	0.229 9
	林业机械总动力Total power of forestry machinery	0.426 9	0.523 9	0.438 8	0.499 0
	林业第一产业从业人员Employees in the primary sector of forestry	0.331 7	0.263 9	0.241 0	0.202 5
	人均林业产值Forestry output per capita	0.251 2	0.300 7	0.543 0	0.580 1
	林产品生产价格指数Forest products production price index	0.197 3	0.524 4	0.205 9	0.265 6
	林业产值/林地面积Forestry output/forested land area	0.259 1	0.346 8	0.451 4	0.418 6
	林业碳排放总量Total forestry carbon emissions	0.459 5	0.618 3	0.477 3	0.551 9
	林业受灾防治率Forestry disaster control rate	0.472 9	0.297 0	0.238 6	0.131 1
	林业农药使用量Forestry pesticide use	0.524 9	0.618 6	0.659 8	0.643 2
	林业碳汇总量Total forestry carbon sinks	0.402 2	0.392 3	0.426 1	0.374 4
	森林覆盖率Forest cover	0.584 3	0.509 6	0.523 5	0.533 8
	林业增加值增长率Growth rate of forestry value added	0.118 8	0.128 2	0.152 7	0.269 9
	林业能源投资Forestry energy investment	0.491 9	0.412 7	0.547 8	0.284 0
	林下经济产值Value of non-timber forest-based economy output	0.296 4	0.610 3	0.724 3	0.740 2
	林业旅游与休闲产业带动产值 Forestry tourism and recreation industry driving output	0.422 6	0.548 3	0.602 1	0.678 6
	林业科研支出Expenditures on forestry research	0.439 0	0.182 2	0.445 7	0.437 5
	林业人员素质Quality of forestry personnel	0.287 0	0.162 8	0.455 3	0.283 8
	林业科技推广站Forestry science and technology extension stations	0.412 8	0.413 8	0.442 5	0.220 1

表4

图10

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一级指标 Primary indicators	二级指标 Secondary indicators	三级指标 Tertiary indicators	代码 Code	属性 Attribute	权重 Weight
抵抗力 Resistance	内在稳定性 Intrinsic stability	林地面积 Forest land area	X1	+	0.038 3
		林业机械总动力 Total power of forestry machinery	X2	+	0.046 3
		林业第一产业从业人员 Employees in the primary sector of forestry	X3	+	0.075 0
	产供鲁棒性 Production and supply robustness	人均林业产值 Forestry output per capita	X4	+	0.060 1
		林产品生产价格指数 Forest products production price index	X5	?	0.004 3
		林业产值/林地面积 Forestry output/forested land area	X6	+	0.097 3
适应力 Adaptive capacity	可持续性 Sustainability	林业碳排放总量 Total forestry carbon emissions	X7	?	0.066 9
		林业受灾防治率 Forestry disaster control rate	X8	+	0.008 4
		林业农药使用量 Forestry pesticide use	X9	?	0.050 6
	可恢复性 Recoverability	林业碳汇总量 Total forestry carbon sinks	X10	+	0.062 3
		森林覆盖率 Forest cover	X11	+	0.023 0
		林业增加值增长率 Growth rate of forestry value added	X12	+	0.008 0
变革力 Transformative capacity	产业协作性 Industrial collaborative	林业能源投资 Forestry energy investment	X13	+	0.121 0
		林下经济产值 Value of non-timber forest-based economy output	X14	+	0.112 5
		林业旅游与休闲产业带动产值 Forestry tourism and recreation industry driving output	X15	+	0.091 7
	科技进步性 Technological progressiveness	林业科研支出 Expenditures on forestry research	X16	+	0.067 3
		林业人员素质 Quality of forestry personnel	X17	+	0.002 4
		林业科技推广站 The number of forestry science and technology extension stations	X18	+	0.064 7

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