关键词: 林业经济韧性, 非均衡性, 空间收敛, 地理探测器, 胡焕庸线

Abstract: Objective In the context of building a forestry power with strong industrial resilience, the characteristics of the non-equilibrium of forestry economic resilience in China and its influencing factors are explored to provide a scientific basis for the high-quality development of forestry.Method Based on the panel data of 30 provincial units in China from 2011 to 2020, the evaluation index system of forestry economic resilience level is constructed to measure the level of forestry economy resilience, and entropy weight method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method, Kernel density estimation method, spatial convergence model, and geographic detector are adopted to analysis the non-equilibrium characteristics of and its influencing factors of the forestry economy resilience in China.Result 1) The forestry economic resilience of China from 2011 to 2020 shows an overall growth trend, increasing from 3.19 in 2011 to 4.53 in 2020, with spatial characteristics of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The spatial agglomeration characteristics mainly present significant high-high agglomeration, high-low agglomeration， and low-high agglomeration. 2) The forestry economic resilience of China gradually expanded from 2011 to 2020, and the Dagum Gini coefficient increased from 0.306 5 in 2011 to 0.325 9 in 2020. 3) The result based on the east-central-west zoning indicates that hypervariable density and inter-regional differences are the main influencing factors on the non-equilibrium of the forestry economic resilience of China. The result based on the Hu Huanyong line zoning shows that intra-regional and inter-regional differences are the main influencing factors of the non-equilibrium of the forestry economic resilience of China. 4) There is no σ-convergence feature, and there are absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence features in the forestry economic resilience of China from 2011 to 2020. The result based on the east-central-west zoning indicates the conditional β convergence of the forestry economic resilience of China. The conditional β convergence of each region is faster than the absolute β convergence, and the central region has the quickest rate of conditional β convergence. The result based on the Hu Huanyong line zoning shows the convergence speed of the west region of the Hu Huanyong line is higher than that of China and the eastern region of the Hu Huanyong line. 5) Adaptive capacity, sustainability, industrial multi-collaborative, forestry pesticide use, value of non-timber forest-based economy output, forestry tourism, and leisure industry driven output value are important influencing factors for the forestry economic resilience of China. Conclusion It is necessary to vigorously develop green, ecological, and intelligent forestry, promote the enhancement of the quality and efficiency of the forestry ecological chain, industrial chain, and value chain, improve the mechanism for high-level protection and cultivation of forest resources, improve the ability of forestry to adapt to the risk of uncertainty, scientifically develop new forms of forest tourism, forest recreation and non-timber forest-based economy, realize the integrated development of the three industries of forestry, actively serve the regional economy, and promote synergistic development of the forestry economy and the regional economy.

Key words: forestry economic resilience, non-equilibrium, spatial convergence, geographical detector, Hu Huanyong line