关键词: 国家森林资源清查, 林龄, 森林蓄积量, 生物量碳库, 碳密度

Abstract:

Objective: Prediction of the potential of carbon pool and carbon sink by China's forest biomass before 2060 is carried out in order to provide an important basis for the study and development policies on emission reduction and sink enhancement, it is of significant implications for China to allow necessary CO₂ emissions and negotiations on global climate change. Method: Based on the data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI), eight to nine major dominant tree species (groups) were selected by region to fit the Richards growth equation, the relationship between volume per hectare and age of each dominant species (group) was established by dividing China into six regions. Using China's forest management plans to project forest area by period, the forest timber volume and biomass carbon pool and carbon sink potential (excluding economic forests and bamboo forests) are estimated in China by 2060. Results: By 2030, forest timber volume will reach 20 473 million m³, an increase of 7 473 million m³ compared with 2005, and by 2060, it will reach 28 645 million m³. In view of the dynamic changes in each region, the southwest and southeast regions are the places with the fastest growth of forest timber volume in China in the future, and the areas with the greatest potential for precise improvement of forest quality, accounting for 37.68% and 21.37% of the national forest timber volume in 2060 respectively. By 2060, the existing forest carbon stocks will reach 12.12 Pg C and new plantations will add another 0.92 Pg C; the total forest biomass carbon pool will reach 13.04 Pg C, an increase of 5.47 Pg C compared to 7.57 Pg C in 2018. The forest carbon density will reach 63.96 Mg C·hm^-2 in the same period. Conclusion: Given that China's forests are currently dominated by middle- and young-aged forests and the forest area is still increasing, the carbon pool and carbon sink capacity of China's forest biomass will continue to grow in the next 40 years, with average annual increase in forest carbon sink up to 0.13 Pg C·a^-1. This indicates that China's forests have a large potential for carbon sinks. For this reason, it is necessary to further strengthen the protection and management of forest resources, reduce forest carbon losses and continue to promote large-scale greening of the national territory, in order to maintain and enhance the carbon sink capacity of China's forests and help achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality".

Key words: National Forest Inventory (NFI), age of forest, forest volume, biomass carbon sinks pool, carbon density