气候变化背景下松材线虫在中国分布的时空变化预测

摘要/Abstract

摘要： [目的] 松材线虫病严重破坏我国松林资源,经济损失巨大,松材线虫病的传播与蔓延气候变化密切相关。本研究借助气候模拟和地理信息系统,分析预测松材线虫在我国的适生范围,研究松材线虫不同地区流行灾变的可能性,准确评估松材线虫在中国的危害风险,为松材线虫病的检疫及防治决策的制定提供理论依据。[方法] 采用全球气候模式MIROC3.2_hiers 的初始场和侧边界值驱动区域气候模式RegCM3(简称MIROC_RegCM),模拟得到SRES A1B情景下 1971—2100年中国区域气候情景的130年逐年气象数据资料,部分验证和模拟了松材线虫分布的生态地理格局。依据制约松材线虫发生和扩散蔓延的6个关键气象及自然地理指标的适生阈值,应用模糊综合评判、地理信息系统和地统计学的理论与方法进行研究。[结果] 随着气候变化, 1971—2100年极适宜松材线虫的生活环境的分布面积逐渐扩大,原来不适于其分布的地区由于气候环境的变化而成为适宜分布地区,潜在极适宜分布面积由148.17万km²增加到243.08万km²,增加64%; 潜在适宜分布面积由72.16万km²增加到189.00万km²,增加162%; 而不适宜、极不适宜的分布面积显著减小,分别由165.14,498.89万km²减少到110.13,287.33万km²。[结论] 从地理分布来看,适合松材线虫分布地区的变化趋势: 松材线虫的潜在适生区主要集中在37°N以南地区,随着大尺度的气候的变化,松材线虫潜在适宜区呈现向北部、西部地区扩张的趋势; 次适宜区延伸到43°N上下,如内蒙古中部、辽宁、河北等; 边缘分布区延伸到46°N上下,如新疆北部、内蒙古东北部、吉林南部; 而吉林北部、黑龙江北部、西藏大部分地区等由于过于寒冷和干旱为松材线虫不适宜区。

关键词: 松材线虫, 潜在地理分布, MIROC_RegCM, GIS地理信息系统

Abstract: Pine wood nematodes damage pine forest resources and cause seriously economic losses. The disease transmission and spread are closely related to climate change. This study analyzed and predicted the suitable scope of pine wood nematodes with climate simulation and geographic information system, which is of great significance for prediction of epidemic disaster in different regions, accurate risk assessment of the harm in China, and provides scientific theory basis for its quarantine and control. Based on the MIROC_RegCM model, 130 years (1971-2100) climate data in China were simulated under the global climate change scenario A1B. According to the thresholds of six key weather and natural geographical factors which play predominant roles in constraint of pine wilt disease distribution, 11 geographic patterns of potential distribution region of pine wilt disease in China were generated by means of comprehensive assessment of data with fuzzy mathematics, geographical information system (GIS) and geostatistics. During the period of 1971-2100, the extremely suitable area increases from 148.17 to 243.08 ten thousands km², the suitable area has increased from 72.16 to 189.00 ten thousands km², and the unsuitable area and very unsuitable area reduce from 165.14 to 110.13 ten thousands km² and from 498.89 to 287.33 ten thousands km², respectively. There is a trend that the potential suitable distribution area of pine wood nematode is mainly concentrated in the south of the north latitude 37°. With the further climate change at large scale, potential distribution are suitable to pine wood nematode would expand to north and west; mildly suitable area would expand to the north latitude 43°, such as central Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hebei, Qinghai, and Gansu; The edge distribution area would extend to the north latitude 46°, such as the north of Xinjiang, northeast of Inner Mongolia, and the south of Jilin. However the north of Jilin, Heilongjiang, large parts of Tibet are too cold and drought to be suitable to pine wood nematode.

Key words: Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, potential distribution, MIROC_RegCM, GIS

中图分类号:

S763

程功, 吕全, 冯益明, 理永霞, 王艳丽, 张星耀. 气候变化背景下松材线虫在中国分布的时空变化预测[J]. 林业科学, 2015, 51(6): 119-126.

Cheng Gong, Lv Quan, Feng Yiming, Li Yongxia, Wang Yanli, Zhang Xingyao. Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Pattern of Pine Wilt Disease Distribution in China Predicted under Climate Change Scenario[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2015, 51(6): 119-126.

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