基于卫星跟踪的黄河三角洲东方白鹳适宜栖息地分布预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230642

林业科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (8): 46-56.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20230642

• 前沿与重点：智慧林草技术与应用 • 上一篇下一篇

基于卫星跟踪的黄河三角洲东方白鹳适宜栖息地分布预测

陈丽霞^1,²(),路峰³,江红星²,孙戈²,岳修鹏³,王艺璇²,高彤²,胡兴波⁴,丁长青^1,*

1. 北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院　北京 100083
2. 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所　生物多样性保护国家林业和草原局重点实验室　北京 100091
3. 山东黄河三角洲国家级自然保护区管理委员会　东营 257091
4. 北京市首发天人生态景观有限公司　北京 102600

收稿日期:2023-12-26 出版日期:2024-08-25 发布日期:2024-09-03
通讯作者: 丁长青 E-mail:chenlixia9530@163.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局野生动植物调查监测项目（2130211）；东方白鹳和黑嘴鸥的环志与卫星跟踪项目（91113–2022）。

Predicting the Distribution of Suitable Habitats for Oriental Storks Based on Satellite Tracking in Yellow River Delta

Lixia Chen^1,²(),Feng Lu³,Hongxing Jiang²,Ge Sun²,Xiupeng Yue³,Yixuan Wang²,Tong Gao²,Xingbo Hu⁴,Changqing Ding^1,*

1. School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University　Beijing 100083
2. Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute of Chinese Academy of Forestry　Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration　Beijing 100091
3. Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve Management Committee　Dongying 2570914
4. Beijing Shoufa Tianren Ecological Landscape Co., Ltd.　Beijing 102600

Received:2023-12-26 Online:2024-08-25 Published:2024-09-03
Contact: Changqing Ding E-mail:chenlixia9530@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 根据黄河三角洲东方白鹳卫星跟踪位点，预测其在全国范围内夏季和冬季适宜栖息地分布，以期为东方白鹳的协同保护提供科学依据。方法: 利用2016—2022年山东黄河三角洲80只东方白鹳卫星跟踪数据，通过空间自相关分析筛选出夏季5 283个点位，冬季4 730个点位，使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测黄河三角洲东方白鹳夏季与冬季潜在适宜栖息地分布，并划分适宜等级。结果: 1） MaxEnt 模型预测夏季和冬季AUC值分别为0.866和0.838，结果准确性好。2）海拔、等温性、距河湖距离、平均气温日较差、降水量季节性以及土地利用类型是影响黄河三角洲东方白鹳夏季与冬季分布的关键环境因素。3）黄河三角洲东方白鹳夏季栖息地高适宜区面积为14.75×10⁴ km2（占适宜区总面积的13.01%），主要位于松嫩平原（57.52%）、渤海湾（17.56%）、辽河平原（14.94%）等地区；栖息地类型包括湿地（35.30%）、农田（33.74%）和水域（12.43%）等。4）冬季栖息地高适宜区面积为11.63×10⁴ km2（占适宜区总面积的11.62%），主要位于长江中下游平原（49.02%）、淮河流域江苏洪泽湖（23.75%）、渤海湾（11.52%）等地区；栖息地类型主要包括湿地（40.56%）、农田（29.68%）和水域（18.45%）等。（5）夏季与冬季栖息地高适宜区的重叠面积为2.13×10⁴ km2（占总重叠面积的4.11%），主要分布在渤海湾（59.81%）、山东半岛沿海（23.24%）、江苏东部沿海（9.34%）等区域。结论: 夏季适宜栖息地向北扩到东北松嫩平原、三江平原和辽河平原，该结果打破了东方白鹳出生后扩散的传统认知，建议加强该物种的协同保护。

关键词: 东方白鹳, 最大熵(MaxEnt)模型, 适宜栖息地, 黄河三角洲

Abstract:

Objective: Based on locations tracked by satelite of Oriental Stork born in the Yellow River Delta, the nation-wide distributions of suitable habitats in both summer and winter were predicted. This study was intended to provide an important scientific basis for the collaborative conservation of Oriental Stork. Method: Using the satellite tracking data of 80 Oriental Storks in the Yellow River Delta of Shandong Province between 2016 and 2022, 5 283 habitat locations in summer and 4 730 habitat locations in winter were selected through spatial auto-correlation analysis. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the potential suitable habitat distribution for Oriental Storks in both summer and winter, and to rank the suitability habitats. Result: The analysis revealed that the MaxEnt predictions are satisfactory, with AUC values exceeding 0.8 for both the summer (0.866) and winter (0.838). Six environmental factors such as elevation, isotherm, distance to lakes and rivers, average daily temperature range, precipitation seasonality and the land-use type—significantly influence the distribution of Oriental Storks in the Yellow River Delta. In summer, there was a highly suitable habitat area of 14.75×10⁴ km2 for Oriental Storks, constituting 13.01% of the total suitable area. These habitats were predominantly distributed in the Songnen Plain (57.52%), the Bohai Bay (17.50%), the Liaohe Plain (14.94%). The main habitat types in summer included wetlands (35.30%), cropland (33.74%), water (12.43%). The highly suitable winter habitat for Oriental Storks covered an area of 11.63×10⁴ km2, constituting 11.62% of the total suitable area. It was primarily situated in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains (49.02%), Hongze Lake of the Huaihe River basin (23.75%), the Bohai Bay (11.52%). The main winter habitats included wetlands (40.56%), cropland (29.68%), water (18.45%). The overlapping area of highly suitable habitat in summer and winter was 2.13×10⁴ km2, primarily concentrated in the Bohai Bay (59.81%), the coastal area of Shandong Peninsula (23.24%) and Jiangsu (9.34%). Conclusion: The results indicate that the suitable habitat in summer extends to Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain and Liaohe Plain, challenging conventional understanding about the fledging dispersal for Oriental Storks. for Oriental Storks. This study offers a crucial scientific foundation for the collaborative conservation of this species.

Key words: Oriental Stork, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat, Yellow River delta

中图分类号:

陈丽霞,路峰,江红星,孙戈,岳修鹏,王艺璇,高彤,胡兴波,丁长青. 基于卫星跟踪的黄河三角洲东方白鹳适宜栖息地分布预测[J]. 林业科学, 2024, 60(8): 46-56.

Lixia Chen,Feng Lu,Hongxing Jiang,Ge Sun,Xiupeng Yue,Yixuan Wang,Tong Gao,Xingbo Hu,Changqing Ding. Predicting the Distribution of Suitable Habitats for Oriental Storks Based on Satellite Tracking in Yellow River Delta[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2024, 60(8): 46-56.

图/表 10

图1

表S1

黄河三角洲东方白鹳卫星跟踪基本信息"

序号 Number	彩环编号 Color ring number	性别 Sex	体重 Weight/g	跟踪数据起止日期 Tracking date
1	S48	雌性 Female	4 540	2016–05–27—2018–02–28
2	S49	雌性 Female	4 200	2016–05–27—2018–07–13
3	R53	雄性 Male	5 330	2019–05–27—2019–12–30
4	R52	雌性 Female	4 301	2019–05–27—2019–07–06
5	R45	雄性 Male	4 240	2019–05–27—2019–08–31
6	R62	雄性 Male	5 490	2019–05–27—2019–08–31
7	R47	雄性 Male	4 725	2019–05–27—2020–02–29
8	R54	雄性 Male	5 280	2019–05–27—2020–02–29
9	R81	雌性 Female	4 740	2019–05–27—2020–02–29
10	R50	雌性 Female	4 210	2019–05–27—2020–02–07
11	R80	雌性 Female	4 250	2019–05–27—2020–07–06
12	R51	雄性 Male	4 645	2019–05–27—2020–08–15
13	R89	雌性 Female	3 600	2019–05–27—2020–08–31
14	R57	雄性 Male	5 565	2019–05–27—2021–02–28
15	R46	雄性 Male	4 880	2019–05–27—2021–07–13
16	R58	雌性 Female	4 395	2019–05–27—2021–08–31
17	S94	雄性 Male	3 825	2019–05–27—2021–08–31
18	R61	雄性 Male	5 330	2019–05–27—2021–08–08
19	R86	雌性 Female	3 380	2019–05–27—2022–12–08
20	R59	雄性 Male	5 295	2019–05–27—2022–07–22
21	R43	雄性 Male	4 265	2019–05–27—2022–07–28
22	R90	雌性 Female	4 075	2019–05–27—2022–08–17
23	R55	雄性 Male	5 165	2019–05–27—2022–08–31
24	S95	雄性 Male	3 150	2019–05–27—2022–08–08
25	R91	雄性 Male	4 160	2019–05–27—2023–6–25
26	R48	雌性 Female	4 045	2019–05–27—2023–07–31
27	R85	雌性 Female	3 200	2019–05–27—2023–08–05
28	R52	雌性 Female	4 301	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
29	R44	雄性 Male	5 360	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
30	R56	雄性 Male	5 340	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
31	R60	雌性 Female	4 360	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
32	S98	雄性 Male	5 710	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
33	R87	雄性 Male	5 200	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
34	R88	雌性 Female	4 300	2019–05–27—2023–08–06
35	4C1	雄性 Male	5 295	2020–05–27—2021–01–29
36	4C1	雄性 Male	5 295	2020–05–27—2021–06–06
37	4C4	雌性 Female	3 815	2020–05–27—2022–12–23
38	4C3	雌性 Female	3 545	2020–05–27—2022–02–26
39	4C5	雄性 Male	4 075	2020–05–27—2023–01–05
40	4C2	雌性 Female	4 433	2020–05–27—2023–08–06
41	U28	雄性 Male	6 052	2021–05–27—2021–08–10
42	U32	雌性 Female	4 535	2021–05–27—2021–08–17
43	U14	雌性 Female	4 715	2021–05–27—2021–08–31
44	U20	雄性 Male	5 200	2021–05–27—2022–02–28
45	U23	雌性 Female	4 555	2021–05–27—2022–07–09
46	U25	雌性 Female	4 551	2021–05–27—2022–08–31
47	U31	雄性 Male	5 685	2021–05–27—2023–02–28
48	U29	雄性 Male	5 400	2021–05–27—2023–02–28
49	U13	雄性 Male	5 755	2021–05–27—2023–02–28
50	U33	雌性 Female	4 535	2021–05–27—2023–02–05
51	U26	雌性 Female	4 525	2021–05–27—2023–06–03
52	U19	雌性 Female	4 625	2021–05–27—2023–07–03
53	U24	雄性 Male	5 318	2021–05–27—2023–08–05
54	U21	雄性 Male	5 420	2021–05–27—2023–08–06
55	U22	雄性 Male	5 750	2021–05–27—2023–08–06
56	U30	雌性 Female	4 955	2021–05–27—2023–08–06
57	U12	雄性 Male	5 650	2021–05–27—2023–08–06
58	U15	雄性 Male	5 500	2021–05–27—2023–08–06
59	2C4	雌性 Female	4 340	2022–05–27—2022–12–26
60	1C8	雌性 Female	3 930	2022–05–27—2022–08–31
61	1C2	雄性 Male	4 915	2022/05/27—2023/08/01
62	2C2	雌性 Female	4 480	2022–05–27—2023–08–05
63	1C3	雌性 Female	4 500	2022–05–27—2023–08–05
64	1C6	雌性 Female	4 065	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
65	1C7	雌性 Female	3 835	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
66	2C3	雌性 Female	4 050	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
67	2C5	雄性 Male	5 030	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
68	2C6	雄性 Male	4 885	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
69	1C9	雄性 Male	4 760	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
70	2C1	雄性 Male	5 030	2022–05–27—2023–08–06
71	3C4	雄性 Male	5 340	2022–06–27—2022–12–06
72	1B2	雌性 Female	4 135	2022–06–27—2023–01–31
73	3C2	雄性 Male	5 260	2022–06–27—2023–07–31
74	3C6	雌性 Female	3 910	2022–06–27—2023–08–05
75	3C5	雄性 Male	5 380	2022–06–27—2023–08–05
76	3C7	雌性 Female	4 970	2022–06–27—2023–08–06
77	3C8	雌性 Female	4 380	2022–06–27—2023–08–06
78	3C3	雄性 Male	5 190	2022–06–27—2023–08–06
79	1B1	雄性 Male	4 455	2022–06–27—2023–08–06
80	1B3	雌性 Female	3 845	2022–06–27—2023–08–06

表S1

表1

图2

表2

图3

表3

表4

表5

表6

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AUC取值范围 Range of AUC values	评价标准 Evaluation criterion
0.5≤AUC<0.6	失败 Fail
0.6≤AUC<0.7	较差 Poor
0.7≤AUC<0.8	一般 Commonly
0.8≤AUC<0.9	好 Good
0.9≤AUC<1.0	极好 Excellent

变量 Variable	单位 Unit	贡献率Percent contribution（%）		置换重要性 Permutation importance（%）
变量 Variable	单位 Unit	夏季 summer	冬季 winter	夏季 summer	冬季 winter
elev	m	52.4	43.9	63.7	78.6
bio3	—	15.5	3.1	16.6	1.2
water	m	13.6	28.2	3.1	7.5
bio15	mm	9.8	5.5	6.4	1.2
land	—	3.6	8.0	0.5	0.4
bio2	℃	2.4	7.1	5.1	3.9
bio5	℃	1.1	0.7	1.6	0.2
resi	m	0.9	0.1	1.4	0.3
bio1	℃	0.6	3.4	1.5	6.7
road	m	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1

适宜区分类 Classification of suitable area	夏季Summer		冬季Winter		夏季与冬季适宜区重叠区域 Overlap suitable areas between summer and winter
适宜区分类 Classification of suitable area	面积 Area/10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）	面积 Area/10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）	面积 Area/10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）
不适宜区 Not suitable	834.60	0.00	847.85	0.00	896.14	0.00
低适宜区 Low suitable	60.20	53.11	54.61	54.55	35.63	68.77
中适宜区 Middle suitable	38.41	33.89	33.86	33.83	14.05	27.12
高适宜区 High suitable	14.75	13.01	11.63	11.62	2.13	4.11

区域 Region	夏季 Summer		冬季 Winter		夏季与冬季适宜区重叠区域 Overlap suitable areas between summer and winter
区域 Region	面积 Area / 10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）	面积 Area / 10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）	面积 Area / 10⁴ km²	百分比 Percentage （%）
松嫩平原 Songnen Plain	84 831.11	57.52	—	—	—	—
渤海湾Bohai Bay	25 895.68	17.56	13 397.76	11.52	12 739.63	59.81
辽河平原Liaohe river Plain	22 043.40	14.94	—	—	—	—
山东半岛东部沿海East coast of Shandong Peninsula	5 286.14	3.58	7 782.71	6.69	4 949.55	23.24
三江平原（包括中俄黑龙江干流）Sanjiang Plain （including Heilongjiang Main Stream）	4 574.76	3.10	—	—	—	—
江苏沿海East coastal area of Jiangsu	2 156.07	1.46	8 333.67	7.17	1 990.16	9.34
长江中下游平原The Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains	1 125.99	0.76	57 010.17	49.02	1 125.99	5.29
河南花园口以下黄河区Huanghe River area below Huayuankou, Henan Province	1 039.87	0.70	—	—	—	—
江苏洪泽湖Hongze Lake, Jiangsu	494.11	0.33	27 623.80	23.75	494.11	2.32
图们江Tumen River	62.40	0.04	—	—	—	—
浙江沿海Zhejiang coastal area	—	—	894.15	0.77	—	—
珠江三角洲及周边Zhujiang Delta and surroundings	—	—	774.08	0.67	—	—
福建沿海Zhejiang coastal area	—	—	482.14	0.41	—	—

季节 Season	变量 Variable	单位 Unit	适宜范围 Suitable range	最适值 Optimum value
夏季 Summer	bio1	℃	3.2~8.6, 13~16.3	14.9
	bio2	℃	20.5~28.8	22.2
	bio3	—	40.2~48.1	42.6
	bio5	℃	32.8~37.7	36.8
	bio15	mm	102.1~117.1	113.7
	elev	m	<255	?7.1
	resi	m	0~39 006	6 639
	road	m	0~12 855	4 097
	water	m	0~10 118	648
冬季 Winter	bio1	℃	13.5~21.0	19.9
	bio2	℃	19.2~23.3	20.0
	bio3	—	45.0~51.3	49.7
	bio5	℃	35.8~38.6	38.0
	bio15	mm	45.4~64.6, 107.2~116.0	55.2
	elev	m	<64.3	?162
	resi	m	0~33 645	14 210
	road	m	0~13 595	3 204
	water	m	0~6 202	161

基于卫星跟踪的黄河三角洲东方白鹳适宜栖息地分布预测

Predicting the Distribution of Suitable Habitats for Oriental Storks Based on Satellite Tracking in Yellow River Delta

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季节 Season	土地利用类型 Landuse	观测值 Observed value	低适宜区 Low suitable area	中适宜区 Mid- suitable area	高适宜区 High suitable area
夏季 Summer	湿地Wetland	35.30	38.94	47.46	39.01
	农田Cropland	33.74	19.74	27.37	32.72
	水域Water	12.43	2.32	4.25	13.86
	草地Grassland	11.25	6.24	6.89	8.06
	林地 Woodland	3.46	19.04	5.52	0.91
	其他Others	3.82	13.72	8.51	5.44
冬季 Winter	湿地Wetland	40.56	15.56	31.69	37.26
	农田Cropland	29.68	38.04	32.06	30.22
	水域Water	18.45	2.47	5.57	17.26
	草地Grassland	2.51	3.94	2.25	2.18
	林地 Woodland	4.11	26.32	10.62	2.4
	其他Others	4.69	13.67	17.81	10.68

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