全球林产品空间结构与比较优势的动态演变——兼论我国林产品比较优势培育目标的选择

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20201120

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的: 通过构建全球林产品空间检验全球林产品空间结构变化与比较优势动态演变之间是否存在动态关联，尝试从微观视角——产品视角对我国林产品比较优势的培育进行初步探析。方法: 基于产品空间结构理论构建全球林产品空间，采用1992—2017年43个主要林产品贸易国的林产品贸易数据，运用R软件测算72种林产品中两两林产品间的邻近度，对全球林产品空间分布的异质性结构予以验证，并通过建立高维面板数据模型进一步检验全球林产品空间分布结构与一国林产品比较优势动态演变之间是否存在关联性；在此基础上对潜在比较优势林产品的产品密度予以排序，选择我国林产品贸易比较优势的培育目标。结果: 从全球林产品空间组成来看，处于密集区域的主要是木质林产品中的木制品类和家具类；在密集区域的前10位产品中没有发现非木质林产品，但在稀疏区域后10位商品除回收纸类和木浆类产品外都是非木质林产品；产品密度与产品比较优势之间存在显著的正相关关系且在时间序列中保持稳定；在未来一段时期内我国处于比较劣势的林产品实现到比较优势转化的可能性依据其产品密度的排序由高到低逐步降低。结论: 全球林产品空间中两两林产品间的距离是不相等的，全球林产品空间呈现出异质且不均衡的总体特征；一国具有潜在比较优势的林产品与现有比较优势产品集之间的距离越近，越容易实现从潜在比较优势到比较优势的转化；对比较劣势的林产品密度进行排序有助于我国政府或主管机关对林产品贸易实施引导，可结合我国林产品贸易的综合实践及全球林产品贸易的环境变化根据潜在比较优势林产品的密度排序来选择比较优势培育目标；掌握和运用全球林产品空间结构与林产品比较优势变动之间的相关关系，一国的主管机关或政策制定部门可在引导本国林产品比较优势变动方面有所作为并取得较好的政策实效。

关键词: 林产品, 产品空间结构, 比较优势, 目标选择

Abstract:

Objective: Through the establishment of global forest product space to test whether there is a dynamic correlation between the spatial structural change of global forest products and the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage, this paper attempts to make a preliminary analysis of the cultivation target of China's comparative advantage of forest products from the perspective of microcosmic product. Method: Based on the theory of product spatial structure, the global forest product space was constructed. Using the forest product trade data of 43 major forest product trading countries from 1992 to 2017, the R software was used to measure the proximity between two forest products in 72 forest products, and the heterogeneity structure of global forest product spatial distribution was verified, and a high dimensional panel data model was established to further examine the relationship between the spatial distribution structure of global forest products and the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage of a country's forest products; On this basis, the density of forest products with potential comparative advantage was ranked to choose the cultivation goal of the comparative advantage of China's forest products trade. Result: From the perspective of the spatial composition of global forest products, the wood products and furniture are mainly in dense areas; Non-wood forest products are not found in the top 10 products in the dense area, but in the sparse area, the ten commodities are non-wood forest products except recycled paper and wood pulp products; There is a significant positive correlation between product density and product comparative advantage, which is stable in time series. In the future, the possibility of conversion from forest products in comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage will be gradually reduced from high to low according to the ranking of product density. Conclusion: The distance between two forest products in the global forest product space is not equal, and the global forest product space is heterogeneous and unbalanced; The closer the distance between the forest product with potential comparative advantage and the existing comparative advantage product set, the easier it is to realize the transformation from potential to actual comparative advantage; Ranking the density of forest product comparative disadvantage can guide the trade of forest products for government or competent authorities, combine the comprehensive practice of forest product trade of China and the environmental changes of global forest product trade, and finally achieve the policy objectives through the cultivation of comparative advantage forest products; The spatial structure of global forest products is closely related to the change of comparative advantage of forest products. If the competent authority or policy-making department follow this inherent law to guide the changes in the comparative advantage of its forest products, it would have a better policy effectiveness.

Key words: forest products, product spatial structure, comparative advantage, target selection

中图分类号:

F327.2

耿利敏,沈文星. 全球林产品空间结构与比较优势的动态演变——兼论我国林产品比较优势培育目标的选择[J]. 林业科学, 2020, 56(11): 187-197.

Limin Geng,Wenxing Shen. Spatial Structure of Global Forest Products and Dynamic Evolution of Comparative Advantage——Discussion on the Selection of Cultivating Target of Chinese Forest Products Comparative Advantage[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2020, 56(11): 187-197.

图/表 7

表1

商品类别及HS编码"

序号 Number	HS编码 HS code	商品名称及类别 Commodity name and category
1	4401	针叶木薪柴、非针叶木薪柴、锯末、木废料等Coniferous firewood, non-coniferous firewood, sawdust, wood scrap, etc.
2	4402	竹炭及以木材为原料直接烧制的木炭Bamboo charcoal and charcoal directly fired from wood
3	4403	红松原木、樟木原木、水曲柳原木及濒危北美乔松、云杉和冷杉原木等Pinus koraiensis logs, camphor logs, Fraxinus mandshurica logs and endangered white pine, spruce and fir logs
4	4404	非针叶木箍木、针叶箍木等Non-coniferous hoopwood, coniferous hoopwood，etc.
5	4405	木丝及木粉Wood wool and wood flour
6	4406	铁道及电车道枕木Railway and tramway sleepers
7	4407	红松、樟子松、辐射松、花旗松及其他松木厚板材Pinus koraiensis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Pinus radiata, Pseudotsuga menziesii and other pine wood sawn of thickness exceeding 6 mm
8	4408	胶合板多层板制饰面其他木单板Veneer sheets of other wood, of laminated plywood
9	4409	一边或面制成连续形状的竹材、桃花心木地板条、块等Continuous bamboo and mahogany floor strips and blocks with one side or face
10	4410	木制碎料板、木制定向刨花板、麦稻秸秆制碎料板等Wooden particle board, wooden oriented strand board, wheat straw board, etc.
11	4411	中密度纤维板及其他Medium density fiberboard and others
12	4412	非针叶胶合板及竹类胶合板等Nonconiferous plywood and bamboo plywood, etc.
13	4413	强化木(强化木成块、板、条或异型的) Densified wood, in blocks, plates, strips or profile shapes
14	4414	木制的画框、相框、镜框及类似品Wooden frames for paintings, photographs, mirrors or similar objects
15	4415	木制木箱及类似包装容器Wooden boxes and similar packaging containers
16	4416	木制大桶、琵琶桶、盆及其他箍桶及零件Casks, barrels, vats, tubs and other coopers’ products and parts thereof
17	4417	木制工具、工具支架、工具柄、扫帚及刷子等Wooden tools, tool holders, tool handles, brooms and brushes, etc.
18	4418	木制木窗、落地窗及其框架Wooden windows, floor to ceiling windows and their frames
19	4419	木制餐具及厨房用具Wooden tableware and kitchenware
20	4420	镶嵌木；珠宝包装用木制盒子或其他装饰品Inlaid wood; wooden boxes or other ornaments for jewelry packaging
21	4421	木衣架及其他竹制品Wooden hangers and other bamboo products
22	4701	机械木浆Mechanical wood pulp
23	4702	化学木浆Chemical wood pulp
24	4703	针叶及非针叶木碱木浆或硫酸盐木浆Coniferous and non-coniferous soda wood pulp or sulphate wood pulp
25	4704	针叶及非针叶木亚硫酸盐木浆Coniferous and non-coniferous sulfite wood pulp
26	4705	机械与化学联合制浆法制木浆Wood pulp made by mechanical and chemical combined pulping
27	4706	棉短绒纸浆、纤维状纤维素浆Cotton linter pulp, fibrous cellulose pulp
28	4707	回收纸或纸板Recycled paper or cardboard
29	4801	成张及其他的新闻纸、成卷的新闻纸Sheets and other newsprints, rolls of newsprint
30	4802	宣纸、手工制纸及纸板、壁纸原纸、新闻纸Rice paper, handmade paper and paperboard, wallpaper base paper, newsprint
31	4803	卫生纸、面巾纸、餐巾纸及类似纸Toilet paper, facial tissue, napkin and similar paper
32	4804	牛皮挂面纸、袋用牛皮纸及中厚牛皮纸及纸板Cowhide liner paper, kraft paper for bags and medium kraft paper and cardboard
33	4805	半化学的瓦楞原纸、草浆瓦楞原纸、亚硫酸盐包装纸、滤纸及纸板等Semi-chemical corrugated base paper, straw pulp corrugated base paper, sulfite wrap, filter paper and cardboard, etc.
34	4806	植物羊皮纸、防油纸、描图纸、透明或半透明纸Plant parchment, greaseproof paper, tracing paper, transparent or translucent paper
35	4807	成卷或成张的复合纸及纸板(未经表面涂布或浸渍) Composite paper and board in rolls or sheets (not surfacecoated or impregnated)
36	4808	瓦楞纸及纸板、其他皱纹纸及纸板、压纹纸等Corrugated paper and cardboard, other crepe paper and cardboard, embossed paper, etc.
37	4809	复写纸、无碳复写纸及其他拷贝或转印纸Carbon paper, carbonless copy paper and other copy or transfer paper
38	4810	书写、印刷或类似用途纸、纸板Paper and board for writing, printing or similar purposes
39	4811	焦油纸及纸板, 沥青纸及纸板；经涂布、浸渍、覆盖的纸及纸板Tarred paper and paperboard, asphalt paper and paperboard; coated, impregnated, covered paper and cardboard
40	4812	纸浆制的滤块、滤板及滤片Filter blocks, slabs and plates of paper pulp
41	4813	卷烟纸Cigarette paper
42	940161	皮革或其他装软垫的木框架的坐具Leather or other upholstered wooden frame seat
43	940169	木框架的坐具Wood frame seat
44	940330	木制办公用木家具Wooden furniture used in offices
45	940340	厨房木家具Wooden furniture used in the kitchen
46	940350	卧室木家具Wooden furniture used in bedroom
47	940360	红木家具、漆木家具及其他木家具Mahogany furniture, lacquered wood furniture and other wooden furniture
48	0601	生长或开花的鳞茎、块茎、块根Growing or flowering bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots
49	0602	食用水果及坚果树的种用苗木等Seedlings for edible fruits and nut trees, etc.
50	0709	块菌、洋蓟、油橄榄、草菇、莼菜、口蘑、伞菌属蘑菇、芦笋Truffle, artichoke, olive oil, straw mushroom, water shield, Tricholoma mongolicum, agaric mushroom, asparagus
51	0711	暂时保藏的蔬菜Temporarily preserved vegetables
52	0712	干蔬菜(未经进一步加工)Dried vegetables (without further processing)
53	0802	鲜或干的去壳或未去壳扁桃仁、核桃、榛子等Fresh or dried shelled or unshelled almonds, walnuts, hazelnuts, etc.
54	0901	咖啡豆荚和咖啡豆皮及已浸除咖啡碱的未焙炒咖啡Coffee husks and skins, coffee (not roasted, decaffeinated)
55	0902	茶(不论是否加香料)Tea (whether or not spiced)
56	0903	马黛茶Yerba Mate tea
57	0904	其他加工调料类Other processing spices
58	0905	香子兰豆Sweet bean
59	0906	已磨肉桂及肉桂花Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers, crushed or ground
60	0907	已磨的丁香Ground cloves
61	0908	已磨的肉豆蔻、豆蔻、豆蔻衣Ground nutmeg, cardamom, bean dress
62	0909	加工过的枯茗子、小茴香子、杜松果、八角茴香、芫荽子等调料Processed seasonings of cumin, fennel, juniper berries, star anise, coriander, etc.
63	1301	虫胶、天然树胶、树脂、树胶脂及香树脂Shellac, natural gum, resin, gum resin and aromatic resin
64	1302	植物液汁及浸膏；果胶、果胶酸盐及果胶酸脂Plant juices and extracts; pectic substances, pectinates and pectates
65	1401	主要作编结用的植物材料Plant materials mainly used for knitting
66	1404	其他未列名的植物产品Other plant products not listed
67	2003	蘑菇及块菌Mushrooms and truffles
68	2004	其他冷冻蔬菜Other frozen vegetables
69	2005	其他未冷冻蔬菜Other unfrozen vegetables
70	3506	糊精及其他改性淀粉Dextrin and other modified starch
71	3806	其他未列名的调制胶及调制粘合剂Other prepared glues and adhesives
72	4001	天然胶乳、天然橡胶烟胶片、天然树胶Natural latex, natural rubber smoked sheets, natural gum

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

表7

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HS编码HS code	940340	4410	4415	4417	940360	4421	4418	940350	940169	940330
1997向心度Centrality	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.33
HS编码HS code	4808	4804	4408	4418	4401	940350	4415	940360	940330	4417
2007向心度Centrality	0.31	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33	0.34	0.34
HS编码HS code	940350	4408	4418	4805	4803	940169	940340	4415	4417	940360
2017向心度Centrality	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33	0.33	0.34

HS编码 HS code	RCA	产品密度 Product density
4701	0.00	0.07
0908	0.01	0.08
0907	0.01	0.08
0903	0.00	0.08
4806	0.23	0.09
4704	0.00	0.09
4705	0.00	0.11
4416	0.04	0.11
0601	0.01	0.11
4405	0.83	0.14
2004	0.29	0.17
0905	0.00	0.17
0602	0.14	0.18
0802	0.17	0.19
1301	0.07	0.19
4812	0.14	0.19
4707	0.00	0.20
4406	0.04	0.20
4404	0.11	0.21
4810	0.80	0.23
0709	0.32	0.24
4702	0.00	0.24
4803	0.59	0.24
0904	0.44	0.25
4001	0.01	0.25
4703	0.00	0.26
4807	0.25	0.26
0909	0.21	0.27
4706	0.99	0.27
4802	0.36	0.28
4805	0.44	0.29
4804	0.20	0.30
1404	0.39	0.30
0901	0.05	0.30
4808	0.57	0.30
4813	0.38	0.31
4418	0.63	0.31
4413	0.23	0.32
4801	0.03	0.33
4410	0.12	0.34
4415	0.15	0.34
4409	0.85	0.37
4403	0.00	0.37
4402	0.88	0.38
4401	0.02	0.38
4407	0.04	0.41
4811	0.71	0.52

变量 Variables	回归系数 Regression coefficients	标准误差 Std. error	t统计量 t statistic
RCA_{i, c, t}	0.926 5	0.013 2	9.81^**	R²=0.876 3	n=171 072
Density_{i, c, t}	0.050 71	0.021 3	2.376^*	R²=0.876 3	n=171 072

HS编码HS code	0711	0712	4419	0906	2003	4420	1401	3806	0902	4421
1997 RCA	16.13	13.00	12.91	10.01	9.12	5.18	3.23	7.02	6.25	4.51
HS编码HS code	4419	0712	4420	2003	0711	3866	4414	4421	940169	940350
2007 RCA	7.78	6.28	5.54	5.38	5.14	4.66	4.22	3.45	3.07	3.02
HS编码HS code	0712	4419	4420	1401	940161	4414	2003	4421	940350	4412
2017 RCA	4.59	4.21	3.87	3.51	3.41	3.40	3.37	3.05	3.92	2.55

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