多重目标下的中国林业全要素生产率及其时空差异

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20150915

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

[目的] 在经济、生态和社会三大效益最大化的多重目标下,测算并分析中国林业全要素生产率及其分量,深化对林业生产效率的理解和认识,为判断林业经济发展方式和制定加快转变林业经济发展方式的相关政策提供科学依据和理论支撑。[方法] 以森林面积、林业系统年末从业人员数量和营林固定资产投资为投入指标,以林业第一产业产值、森林蓄积量和木材产量为产出指标,基于2004-2012年省际面板数据,借鉴Färe等(1992; 1994)的思路,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算(使用DEAP2.1软件运算)并分析中国及四大地区(东部地区、中部地区、西部地区及东北地区)林业全要素生产率(Malmquist生产率指数)及其分量--技术进步变动指数和技术效率变动指数(进一步分解为纯技术效率变动指数和规模效率变动指数); 其中,各指数减去1,就是各相应指标的增长率,且所有均值均为几何均值。[结果] 2004-2012年,中国林业全要素生产率、技术进步、技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率年均增长率分别为15.6%,14.1%,1.3%,1.6%和-0.2%; 四大地区依林业全要素生产率年均增长率从高到低依次为东部地区(21.8%)、中部地区(18.4%)、西部地区(10.7%)和东北地区(10.1%); 依技术进步年均增长率从高到低依次为东部地区(21.2%)、中部地区(17.8%)、东北地区(9.0%)和西部地区(7.9%); 依技术效率年均增长率从高到低依次为西部地区(2.5%)、东北地区(0.9%)、中部地区(0.6%)和东部地区(0.4%); 依纯技术效率年均增长率从高到低依次为西部地区(2.7%)、中部地区(1.3%)、东北地区(1.2%)和东部地区(0.5%); 依规模效率年均增长率从高到低依次为东部地区(0%)、西部地区(-0.2%)、东北地区(-0.2%)和中部地区(-0.7%)。[结论] 从2004-2012年各指数的变化情况来看,中国林业全要素生产率总体处于增长状态,其增长的主要动力来源于技术进步,而技术效率因受限于规模效率未能同步增长,对林业全要素生产率增长所产生的贡献较为有限; 虽然四大地区林业全要素生产率均实现增长,但各区域增长速度存在明显差异,增长源泉也不尽相同。因此,为了推动林业全要素生产率增长,加快林业经济发展方式转变,既要促进林业技术进步,又要提高林业技术效率,还要依据区域特征实行因地制宜的林业发展政策。

关键词: 林业全要素生产率, 三大效益, 技术进步, 技术效率, 时空差异, DEA-Malmquist指数法

Abstract:

[Objective] In order to provide evidences for judging the economic development pattern of forestry in China, China's forestry total factor productivity (FTFP) and its components under multiple targets of maximizing economic, ecological and social benefits are measured and analyzed. [Method] With input variables including forest area, year-end forestry employees of forestry and investment in fixed assets of forestry, and with output variables including primary-industry product of forestry, stock volume of forest and timber production,based on the panel data from provinces over the period from 2004 to 2012, FTFPs(Malmquist productivity indexes)and their components in China and in China's four main regions are measured and analyzed using the DEA-Malmquist index methods described in Färe et al.(1992; 1994), and calculated by the software DEAP Version 2.1. The components include technical progress change index, and technical efficiency change index (consisting of pure technical efficiency change index and scale efficiency change index). Every index minus 1 is its growth rate, and the sample averages are all geometric means. [Result] China's FTFP, technical progress, technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency respectively exhibit average annual growth rates of 15.6%, 14.1%, 1.3%, 1.6% and -0.2% over the period from 2004 to 2012. China's four main regions are in descending order of average annual growth rate (AAGR) of FTFP: eastern region (at an AAGR of 21.8%), central region (18.4%), western region (10.7%) and northeastern region (10.1%). In descending order of AAGR of technical progress, they are eastern region (21.2%), central region (17.8%), northeastern region (9.0%) and western region (7.9%). In descending order of AAGR of technical efficiency, they are western region (2.5%), northeastern region (0.9%), central region (0.6%) and eastern region (0.4%). In descending order of AAGR of pure technical efficiency, they are western region (2.7%), central region (1.3%), northeastern region (1.2%) and eastern region (0.5%). In descending order of AAGR of scale efficiency, they are eastern region (0%), western region (-0.2%), northeastern region (-0.2%) and central region(-0.7%).[Conclusion] Based on the changes of all indexes during the period from 2004 to 2012, China's FTFP shows a growing trend, and technical progress is the primary momentum of FTFP growth. However, technical efficiency has a poor effect on the promotion of China's FTFP, for the growth of technical efficiency is restricted due to the non-synchronous growth of scale efficiency.The FTFPs in China's four main regions all have grown, but there are significantly regional variations in growth rate and there are also regional differences in growth momentum. Therefore, in order to promote FTFP and accelerate changing the economic development pattern of forestry, we should make forestry technical progress, improve forestry technical efficiency, and adopt the corresponding forestry development policies according to the regional features as well.

Key words: forestry total factor productivity, three main benefits, technical progress, technical efficiency, spatiotemporal differences, DEA-Malmquist index method

中图分类号:

F307.2

黄安胜, 刘振滨, 许佳贤, 林群, 兰晔, 苏时鹏, 张春霞. 多重目标下的中国林业全要素生产率及其时空差异[J]. 林业科学, 2015, 51(9): 117-125.

Huang Ansheng, Liu Zhenbin, Xu Jiaxian, Lin Qun, Lan Ye, Su Shipeng, Zhang Chunxia. Forestry Total Factor Productivity under Multiple Targets in China and Its Spatiotemporal Differences[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2015, 51(9): 117-125.

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