基于MaxEnt生态学模型的檀香在中国的潜在种植区预测

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20140504

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依据某物种的地理分布数据以及环境因子数据，MaxEnt生态学模型可预测该物种在目标区域可能的分布范围，这一功能正符合植物潜在种植区预测的需要。以温度、降雨及海拔为环境因子指标，收集文献中檀香野生和栽培适生区的地理分布数据，采用MaxEnt模型软件进行建模并对檀香在中国的潜在种植区进行预测。ROC曲线分析检验表明所建立的檀香MaxEnt预测模型有效性高；各环境因子的刀切法分析表明，对预测结果贡献值较大的环境因子是与低温相关的年平均温度、最冷月的最低温度、最冷季度的平均温度，其各自的响应曲线显示，适宜的取值区间分别是25~30 ℃，8~17 ℃和13~23 ℃。进一步将檀香在中国各地的引种栽培表现与预测图进行比对，将预测图划分为0~1的5级时，区划等级为0~0.4的区域为不适宜区，区划等级为0.4~0.8的区域为适宜区，区划等级为0.8~1.0的区域为最适区。最适区除传统认为的海南西部的丘陵山地、广东的雷州半岛外，还包括广东和福建的东南沿海。

关键词: MaxEnt生态学模型, 檀香, 种植区预测

Abstract:

MaxEnt ecological model can be used to predict possible distribution range in target region according to the data of geographic distribution and environment factors, which meets the need for identifying the potential cultivation area of plants. In this study, prediction of potential cultivation area for Santalum album in China was carried out with MaxEnt modeling framework based on data of environmental factors, including temperature, rainfall and altitude, collected from wild and cultivated geographic regions. The model constructed by MaxEnt is highly reliable evaluated by Receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Response curves created by Jackknife method displayed that annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of coldest month, and mean temperature of coldest quarter, which are all related to low temperature, were the dominant environmental variables that mainly contributed to predict cultivation potential, with the proper temperature ranges of 25-30 ℃, 8-17 ℃ and 13-23 ℃, respectively. Furthermore, performances of S. album in different cultivation regions were compared with the predicted map, and the suitability degrees were divided into five categories between 0-1. The region with the suitability degrees between 0-0.4 was not suitable for cultivation, the region between 0.4-0.8 was suitable and the region between 0.8-1.0 was the most suitable. Besides of the traditionally accepted regions such as the hills of the western Hainan province, and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong province, the southeast coast of Guangdong and Fujian Province was also identified with high suitable for cultivation (0.8-1.0).

Key words: MaxEnt ecologic niche modeling, Santalum album, predicting potential cultivation area

中图分类号:

S718.51

胡秀, 吴福川, 郭微, 刘念. 基于MaxEnt生态学模型的檀香在中国的潜在种植区预测[J]. 林业科学, 2014, 50(5): 27-33.

Hu Xiu, Wu Fuchuan, Guo Wei, Liu Nian. Identification of Potential Cultivation Region for Santalum album in China by the MaxEnt Ecologic Niche Model[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2014, 50(5): 27-33.

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