基于单木水平和林分水平的杉木兼容性林分蓄积量模型

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20140113

林业科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1): 82-87.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20140113

基于单木水平和林分水平的杉木兼容性林分蓄积量模型

张雄清, 张建国, 段爱国

中国林业科学研究院林业研究所国家林业局林木培育重点实验室北京 100091

收稿日期:2013-02-19 修回日期:2013-03-20 出版日期:2014-01-25 发布日期:2014-01-25
基金资助:
中央级公益性科研院所中国林业科学研究院林业研究所所长基金（RIF2013-09）；国家自然科学基金项目（31300537）；江苏高校协同创新计划资助项目。

Compatibility of Stand Volume Model for Chinese Fir Based on Tree-Level and Stand-Level

Zhang Xiongqing, Zhang Jianguo, Duan Aiguo

Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of State Forestry Administration Research Institute of Forestry, CAF Beijing 100091

Received:2013-02-19 Revised:2013-03-20 Online:2014-01-25 Published:2014-01-25
Contact: 张建国

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

杉木林分蓄积量模型的研究，为改善杉木的经营管理、揭示杉木的生长规律提供重要的参考依据。根据模拟对象的不同，可以分为基于单木水平预测杉木林分蓄积量和基于林分水平预测杉木林分蓄积量。本研究通过组合预测法把单木模型和林分模型组合起来，使杉木林分蓄积量预测一体化。利用组合预测法对不同模型的预测结果组合，分散单项模型的预测误差，从而提高预测精度。基于江西杉木固定样地数据，并利用最优加权法计算组合预测模型中各模型的权重系数。结果表明：组合预测法预测杉木林分蓄积量比单项模型（单木模型、林分模型）预测精度高，同时组合预测法可提高杉木林分蓄积量预测模型的兼容性，保证杉木林分蓄积量预测的一致性，为杉木林分蓄积量一体化的研究提供一种思路。

关键词: 林分蓄积量, 兼容性, 组合预测法, 杉木

Abstract:

It is important to model stand volume of Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata)for improving forest management and revealing forest growth law. According to the different simulation objects, stand volume of Chinese fir can be predicted from tree level and stand level. In this study, the two level models were combined by forecast combination. Forecast combination combines information from different models, disperse errors from different models, and then improve forecast performance. In this paper, weights of different models in the forecast combine model were calculated by optimal weight. Based on the periodic data of the Chinese fir in Jiangxi Province, forecast combination was used to estimate Chinese fir stand volume from tree-level model, and stand-level model. The results showed that the forecast combination for predicting Chinese fir stand volume outperformed over tree-level model, and stand-level model respectively. It also improved the compatibility of Chinese fir stand volume growth models from different levels of models and provided a method for integration of Chinese fir stand volume.

Key words: stand volume, compatibility, forecast combination, Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata)

中图分类号:

S758.5

张雄清, 张建国, 段爱国. 基于单木水平和林分水平的杉木兼容性林分蓄积量模型[J]. 林业科学, 2014, 50(1): 82-87.

Zhang Xiongqing, Zhang Jianguo, Duan Aiguo. Compatibility of Stand Volume Model for Chinese Fir Based on Tree-Level and Stand-Level[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2014, 50(1): 82-87.

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基于单木水平和林分水平的杉木兼容性林分蓄积量模型

Compatibility of Stand Volume Model for Chinese Fir Based on Tree-Level and Stand-Level

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