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林业科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (7): 163-169.doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20130724

• 研究简报 • 上一篇    下一篇

木榄胎生繁殖体产量预测模型

黄剑坚1, 刘素青2, 李际平3, 韩维栋2   

  1. 1. 广东海洋大学寸金学院 湛江 524094;
    2. 广东海洋大学农学院 湛江 524088;
    3. 中南林业科技大学林学院 长沙 410002
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-01 修回日期:2013-04-17 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-07-23
  • 通讯作者: 刘素青
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(31170511);中央财政林业科技推广示范资金(GXTG200904);广东省自然科学基金项目(S2012010008703);广东省海洋渔业科技推广专项基金项目(A201008J02, 2011011I02);湛江市科技攻关项目(2012C3106002)。

Construction of a Mathematic Model for Forecasting Viviparous Propagule Yield of Bruguiera gymnorriza

Huang Jianjian1, Liu Suqing2, Li Jiping3, Han Weidong2   

  1. 1. Cunjin College of Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang 524094;
    2. Agriculture College of Guangdong Ocean University Zhanjiang 524088;
    3. College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry & Technology Changsha 410002
  • Received:2012-09-01 Revised:2013-04-17 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-07-23

关键词: 木榄, 胎生繁殖体, 产量预测, 预测模型

Abstract:

Construction of a mathematic model for forecasting viviparous propagule yield of Bruguiera gymnorrhiza is important for mangrove forestations and mangrove management. In this study, viviparous propagules of B. gymnorrhiza were used as the research object in Mangrove Nation Natural Reserve at Gaoqiao, Zhanjiang city, Guangdong province. The indexes of different layers were investigated, and then the multivariate analysis in regressive and path analysis were conducted to construct a mathematic model for forecasting viviparous propagule yield of B. gymnorrhiza. The result showed that: B. gymnorrhiza seed yield was very significantly correlated with the diameters of basal stem and crown. It also had significantly positive correlation with the diameter and crotch angle of lateral branches in first class, leaf length, or leaf-shaped index, suggesting the seed yield had close relationships with phenotypic characteristics. Thus, we could regulate the yield by changing the phenotypic characteristics. With multiple stepwise regression analysis we constructed effective regression equation: Y =-148.131+127.471 X4-11.113 X5+2.048 X7, which can be used for forecasting and controlling B. gymnorrhiza viviparous propagule yield. The results of path analysis showed that the factors determining the seed yield were X4 > X7 > X5. Thus, increasing the crown is the best way to increase the seed yield for individual B. gymnorrhiza.

Key words: Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, viviparous propagule, forecast yield, forecasting model

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