Content of Response and adaptation of spatial distribution of typical tree species to climate change in our journal

Published in last 1 year |  In last 2 years |  In last 3 years |  All Please wait a minute... For Selected: Download Citations EndNote Reference Manager ProCite BibTeX RefWorks Toggle Thumbnails Select Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Amygdalus pedunculata in China under Climate Change Shuning Zhang,Junxing Chen,Dun Ao,Mei Hong,Yaqian Zhang,Fuhai Bao,Lin Wang,Tana Wuyun,Yu’e Bai,Wenquan Bao Scientia Silvae Sinicae    2023, 59 (12): 25-36.   DOI: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210840 Abstract （132）   HTML （12）    PDF （2409KB）（345）       Knowledge map    Save Objective: Amygdalus pedunculata is one of the important oil tree species in China, with extremely high economic value and ecological benefits. This study aims to predict the suitable areas of A. pedunculata in China and its response to climate change, which would provide scientific basis for the protection and artificial planting of A. pedunculata resources. Method: A total of 148 A. pedunculata distribution data and 34 environmental factors were filtered out by R language and ArcGis. The ENMeval software package was used to optimize the maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) parameters, and complete the filtering of environmental factors required for modeling which was based on Pearson correlation analysis and VIF variance expansion factor analysis. Jackknife was used to evaluate the dominant environmental factors in the suitable area of A. pedunculata. The optimized model was used to analyze the geographical distribution of the currently suitable distribution areas of A. pedunculata, to speculate the potential distribution in the Last Inter Glacial, the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid Holocene, and analyze their potential distribution. According to the sixth climate model of IPCC, the changing trend of A. pedunculata in the future distribution area under different climatic scenarios could be predicted. Result: The results of model optimization showed that when the model feature combinations were linear, quadratic, fragmented, product and threshold features, and the regulation radio was 1.5, the training omission rate and low complexity of MaxEnt model were low, and the fitting was the best. The AUC value of the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.967, showing that the model prediction results were accurate and high reliability. According to the results of the Jackknife, the precipitation of the warmest season, the precipitation seasonality, the temperature seasonality, the annual mean temperature, and the topsoil base saturation were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. pedunculata. The prediction results of the model showed that at present suitable areas of A. pedunculata in China were mainly distributed in the Inner Mongolia Plateau and Loess Plateau. The analysis of historical, current and future adaptation areas showed that A. pedunculata was sensitive to climate change. Under different climate change scenarios in the future, the suitable area of A. pedunculata would shrink and tend to migrate to middle and high latitude, and high altitude areas, especially under high greenhouse gas emission concentration, the migration distance would be longer. Conclusion: The optimized model can accurately predict the potential geographical distribution area of A. pedunculata. Temperature and precipitation are the most likely environmental factors causing the migration of A. pedunculata distribution areas. In the future, climate warming will cause the migration of the distribution area of A. pedunculata. Under the background of future climate warming, suitable areas of A. pedunculata tend to decrease. The reduction areas are mainly in low latitudes and low altitudes, while newly suitable areas appear in medium and high latitudes, and high altitudes (Hohhot, Ordos, Xilingol, Yan'an). Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select Regionalization and Rationality Analysis of Natural Acer truncatum in China Based on MaxEnt Model Yitong Liu,Hui Guo,Shunxiang Pei,Sha Wu,Di Wu,Xuebing Xin Scientia Silvae Sinicae    2023, 59 (12): 13-24.   DOI: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210823 Abstract （128）   HTML （17）    PDF （1900KB）（222）       Knowledge map    Save Objective: This paper probes into the suitable area zoning and ecological threshold of natural Acer truncatum, and analyzes the rationality of the zoning results through field investigation of the sample points, providing theoretical basis for the reasonable location of artificial cultivation of natural Acer truncatum, the investigation and protection of natural germplasm resources, and the selection and breeding of excellent varieties. Method: Based on 138 selected representative sample points, combined with 15 ecological factors, the MaxEnt model was applied to analyze the main ecological factors and threshold range affecting the distribution of natural Acer truncatum by knife cutting method. Then, the model results were evaluated by using the GIS simulation of the suitable area division in China and the subject work characteristic curve. After the evaluation, the sample points were investigated on the spot, and the rationality analysis was carried out on the zoning results. Result: 1) The ROC curve training set and test set AUC values of the regionalization results of the suitable areas of natural Acer truncatum were 0.968 and 0.947. 2) The main ecological factors affecting the range of suitable areas of the natural Acer truncatum were average temperature in the driest season, precipitation in the wettest season, altitude, precipitation in the driest season and average annual temperature, with a cumulative contribution rate of 82.80%, and soil factors had little effect on the distribution of the natural Acer truncatum. It is suitable to grow in areas with average temperature of ?12.50–3.82 ℃ in the driest season, precipitation of 230–547 mm in the wettest season, altitude of 0–1 465 m, precipitation of 5–53 mm in the driest season and average annual temperature of 4.04–15.41 ℃. 3) The main habitat area of the natural Acer truncatum spans 34°—46°N, 108°—126°E, and concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Hebei, Jilin, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Gansu and other provinces（autonomous regionsand municipalities）, with an area of about 1 642 247 km2, accounting for 17.11% of the total land area of China. Among them, the high suitability areas are mainly located in Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong, with an area of 277 792 km2, accounting for 16.92% of the total suitability areas in China. 4) The rationality of regionalization of suitable area was analyzed through field investigation of sample points. The overall regionalization accuracy of natural Acer truncatum was 0.82, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.61. Conclusion: The suitable areas of the natural Acer truncatum are widely distributed in north China and parts of northeast and northwest China. Bioclimatic factors and altitude factors are the main limiting ecological factors for the growth of the natural Acer truncatum in China. In this study, the simulated zoning results of the suitable area of the natural Acer truncatum can reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the natural Acer truncatum, and provide a theoretical basis for making full use of the natural resources and maximizing the economic value of the natural Acer truncatum. Table and Figures | Reference | Related Articles | Metrics