海河典型流域气候变化和植被恢复对水文的影响——以张家口清水河流域为例

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240259

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: Quantify the impacts of climate change and large-scale vegetation restoration on watershed hydrology, with the aim of achieving optimized allocation of forest and grass that balances water resource availability and ecological benefits in the watershed. Methods: Based on the semi-distributed hydrological model ( soil and water assessment tool, SWAT ) and scenario simulation, the impacts of climate change and vegetation restoration on hydrology were quantitatively evaluated in Qingshuihe watershed, a typical watershed of vegetation restoration in Haihe basin. Result: 1) From 1969 to 2015, the average annual precipitation in Qingshuihe watershed showed an insignificant decreasing trend ( P > 0.05 ), with a decrease of 1.70 mm every 10 years. The average annual air temperature showed a significantly increasing trend (P < 0.01 ), with an increase of 0.30 ℃ every 10 years. The annual potential evapotranspiration showed an insignificant increasing trend ( P > 0.05), with an increase of 7.30 mm every 10 years. The annual runoff depth showed a significant decreasing trend ( P < 0.01 ), with a decrease of 5.80 mm every 10 years. 2) Comparing landuse between 1985 and 2015, grassland to forest and cropland to grassland are the main types of vegetation restoration. 3) The calibrated SWAT model can better simulate the hydrological changes in Qingshuihe watershed. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE) are 0.69 and 0.77, coefficients of determination (R²) are 0.69 and 0.77, percentage bias (PBIAS) are –0.40% and –6.00%, and ratios of the root mean square error to the standard deviation (RSR) are 0.56 and 0.48 for the calibration period and validation period, respectively. 4) Compared with the base period (1984–1993), the surface runoff and lateral flow increased by 0.31 and 0.08 mm due to climate change, and decreased by 1.43 and 0.46 mm due to vegetation restoration in the scenario period (2006–2015). Climate change and vegetation restoration respectively decreased soil water content by 42.72% and 57.28%, while increasing actual evapotranspiration by 87.47% and 12.53%, respectively. 5) After grassland restoration, the actual annual evapotranspiration increased by 12.62 mm, the annual surface runoff, lateral flow and soil water content decreased by 6.47, 3.38 and 10.06 mm, respectively. After restoring cropland to grassland, the annual surface runoff decreased by 8.11 mm, and the actual annual evapotranspiration, lateral flow and soil water content increased by 7.27, 1.21 and 4.37 mm, respectively. Conclusion: Different hydrological parameters responded differently to climate change and vegetation restoration in Qingshuihe watershed. Vegetation restoration is the main driving factor for the reduction of surface runoff, lateral flow, and soil water content, and the main driving factor for the increase of actual evapotranspiration is climate change. The impacts of different vegetation restoration types on hydrology are significantly different. After the grassland was restored to forest, the water consumption increased, and more precipitation can be retained after restoring cropland to grassland. In regions with water scarcity, it is necessary to essential to carefully balance the hydrological regulation functions of different vegetation types to develop sustainable and adaptive watershed management strategies.

Key words: climate change, vegetation restoration, SWAT model, hydrological parameters, quantitative attribution

CLC Number:

S157

Niuniu Cui,Jianzhuang Pang,Yifan Zhang,Hang Xu,Qin Zhang,Zhiqiang Zhang. Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Restoration on Hydrology in a Typical Watershed of Haihe Basin: A Case Study of Qingshuihe Watershed in Zhangjiakou[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2025, 61(3): 38-49.

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参数名称Parameter name	调整方法Adjustment methods	文件格式File format	参数描述Parameter description	初始范围 Initial range		最适范围 Optimum range
参数名称Parameter name	调整方法Adjustment methods	文件格式File format	参数描述Parameter description	最小值Minimum value	最大值Maximum value	最小值Minimum value	最大值Maximum value
CN2	r	.mgt	土壤保护服务的径流曲线数Soil conservation services runoff curve number	–0.5	0.5	0.13	0.22
SOL_Z()	r	.sol	土壤表层到底层深度Depth from soil surface to bottom of layer/mm	–0.5	0.5	–0.12	0.06
CANMX	v	.hru	最大冠层蓄水量Maximum canopy storage/mm	0	100	43.51	61.93
SMFMN	v	.bsn	一年中积雪的最小融化速率（冬至日）Minimum melt rate for snow during the year ( winter solstice )/(mm·℃^–1d^–1)	0	20	2.45	5.17
SOL_K()	r	.sol	土壤饱和导水率Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity/(mm·h^?1)	–0.8	0.8	–0.51	–0.07
ESCO	v	.hru	调整土壤表层蒸发速率的系数Adjusting the coefficient of soil surface evaporation rate	0	1	0.51	0.65
RCHRG_DP	v	.gw	浅层地下水渗透到深层地下水的水量比例Proportion of water percolating from shallow groundwater to deep groundwater	0	1	0.84	0.96
GW_REVAP	v	.gw	地下水返回土壤层的水量比例Proportion of groundwater returning to the soil layer	0.02	0.2	0.04	0.08
SFTMP	v	.bsn	降雪气温Snowfall temperature/℃	–20	20	–6.94	–3.97
CH_N2	v	.rte	主河道曼宁系数Main channel Manning coefficient	–0.01	0.3	0.22	0.27
OV_N	v	.hru	坡面流曼宁系数Manning coefficient of overland flow	0.01	30	3.14	10.11
HRU_SLP	r	.hru	平均坡度Mean slope steepness/(°)	0	1	0.81	0.89
TLAPS	v	.sub	气温递减率Temperature lapse rate/(℃·km^?1)	–10	10	–4.36	–1.76
EPCO	v	.hru	调整植物从土壤中吸收水分效率的系数Adjusting the coefficient of water uptake efficiency of plants from soil	0	1	0.51	0.62

情景Scenario	气候数据Climate data	土地利用数据Landuse data
S1	1984—1993	1985
S2	1984—1993	2015
S3	2006—2015	1985
S4	2006—2015	2015

气象、水文指标 Meteorological and hydrological parameters	基准期 Base period（S1）	植被恢复期 Vegetation restoration period（S4）	总变化 Total change	各因素导致的变化量 Changes caused by each factor		相对贡献率 Relative contribution rate(%)
气象、水文指标 Meteorological and hydrological parameters	基准期 Base period（S1）	植被恢复期 Vegetation restoration period（S4）	总变化 Total change	气候变化 Climate change	植被恢复 Vegetation restoration	气候变化 Climate change	植被恢复 Vegetation restoration
降水量Precipitation /mm	433.73	454.37	20.64	—	—	—	—
气温 Air temperature /℃	4.50	5.10	0.60	—	—	—	—
干旱指数Drought index	1.45	1.57	0.12	—	—	—	—
地表径流 Surface runoff /mm	5.09	3.97	?1.12	0.31	?1.43	27.68	?127.68
壤中流 Lateral flow /mm	6.15	5.77	?0.38	0.08	?0.46	21.05	?121.05
0~100 cm土层土壤含水量 0–100 cm soil layer soil water content /mm	30.12	27.99	?2.13	?0.91	?1.22	?42.72	?57.28
实际蒸散发 Actual evapotranspiration /mm	418.04	436.56	18.52	16.20	2.32	87.47	12.53

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Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Restoration on Hydrology in a Typical Watershed of Haihe Basin: A Case Study of Qingshuihe Watershed in Zhangjiakou

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