Abstract:

Objective: This study aims to investigate the correlation between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry, deeply understand the influence mechanism, quantitatively assess the risks and opportunities brought by climate policy uncertainty to the high-quality development of forestry, and explore effective ways for high-quality development of forestry. Method: The panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2022 was used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the high-quality development of forestry. The entropy method was used to measure the level of high-quality development of forestry in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities). The two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model were used to empirically analyze the causal relationship and mechanism between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry. Result: 1) Climate policy uncertainty had a significant negative impact on the level of high-quality development of forestry, and this result remained valid after a series of robustness tests. 2) Climate policy uncertainty inhibited the high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector. 3) The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on high-quality forestry development was more pronounced in eastern regions, areas with scarce forest resources, and regions dominated by collective forests. 4) The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on the high-quality development of forestry only occurred when the climate policy uncertainty index exceeded the threshold value. conclusion: Climate policy uncertainty inhibits the level of high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector, and its impact is heterogeneous. To address this, it is necessary to moderately enhance the consistency and continuity of different climate policies, strengthen information communication before policy introduction and information disclosure during the implementation process, and ensure that forestry-related departments can timely, comprehensively, and accurately understand the specific content of climate policies, thereby using market and technological means to cope with the negative impacts brought by climate policy uncertainty through multi-channels.

Key words: climate change, climate policy uncertainty, high-quality development of forestry, scientific and technological human resources in forestry