蒙古栎林分直径Weibull分布参数估计和预测方法比较

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20161008

Abstract

Abstract: [Objective] In order to provide the references for forest management and tabulation,this paper evaluated maximum likelihood estimation method(MLE), moments method(MOM)and percentile method(PM)in estimating diameter distribution frequency of Quercus mongolica, and evaluated the direct parameter prediction method(PPM), moment-based parameter recovery method(PRM)and percentile-based parameter recovery method(PCT)in predicting diameter distribution frequency of Quercus mongolica.[Method] 157 plots of pure Quercus mongolica were taken as the research object. The differences of methods to estimate and predict diameter distribution of Quercus mongolica were valuated based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) test and error index. Firstly,MLE,MOM and PM were analyzed and evaluated. Then the regression model were built by multiple regression method between parameters of three methods and stand variables including stand age, stand average height, dominant height and stand density. Finally, by regression model, Weibull parameters were calculated to predict diameter distribution.[Result] K-S test and error index were compared for three methods to estimate and predict three Weibull parameters. From the results, we can find that all three methods estimate diameter distribution of Quercus mongolica well and the acceptance rates of K-S test are from 82.80% to 96.18%, of which MLE is the highest. By t test, average error index of MLE is less than that of MOM and PM at the significant level of 0.05. When comparing three methods to predict distribution, we find that the acceptance rate of K-S test of PCT is 64.45% and highest in three methods. By t test, PCT predict is better than PPM and PRM at the significant level of 0.1.[Conclusion] MLE is better to estimate diameter distribution frequency than MOM and PM. Meanwhile, PCT is better to predict diameter distribution frequency than PPM and PRM.

Key words: Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, parameter prediction method, parameter recovery method, percentile method, Quercus mongolica

CLC Number:

S757

Guo Hong, Lei Yuancai. Method Comparison of Weibull Function for Estimating and Predicting Diameter Distribution of Quercus mongolica Stands[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2016, 52(10): 64-71.

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Method Comparison of Weibull Function for Estimating and Predicting Diameter Distribution of Quercus mongolica Stands

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