退耕还林工程对农户收入不平等影响的测度与分析 ——基于总收入决定方程的Shapley值分解

doi:10.11707/j.1001-7488.20170515

摘要/Abstract

摘要： [目的] 研究退耕还林工程对农户收入不平等的影响，以检验退耕还林工程目标的实现情况，为政府相关部门调整退耕还林工程后续政策及实施其他生态恢复项目提供决策依据。[方法] 基于四川、河北、陕西等6省（区）15个案例县1 158个样本农户1995-2012年的平衡面板数据，考虑参与退耕还林工程的总体影响和边际影响，建立样本农户总收入决定方程；以基尼系数、泰尔-L指数和泰尔-T指数作为衡量收入不平等的指标，采用Shapley值分解法对样本农户的总收入决定方程进行分解，全面系统评估退耕还林工程对农户收入不平等的影响。[结果] 经验性结果显示，样本农户是否参加退耕还林工程和参加退耕还林工程面积对总收入的影响均为正且在1%水平上显著。1999—2012年，样本农户是否参加退耕还林工程和参加退耕还林工程面积对总收入基尼系数的贡献率呈先升后降的趋势，贡献率最高为2008年，是否参加退耕还林工程和参加退耕还林工程面积的贡献率分别为3.04%和4.55%；在变化趋势上，退耕还林工程对样本农户总收入泰尔-L指数和泰尔-T指数的贡献与对基尼系数的贡献基本一致。[结论] 实施退耕还林工程增加了样本农户的总收入，但拉大了样本农户的总收入不平等。因此，就生态恢复工程对农户收入不平等可能产生的影响而言，有必要引起高度关注，实现生态恢复、农民增收与分配公平的多赢。

关键词: 退耕还林工程, 收入不平等, 总收入决定方程, Shapley值分解

Abstract: [Objective] The objective of investigating the effect of the sloping land conversion program (SLCP) on rural households’ income inequality is to verify the process of the SLCP, and some policy implications are considered for the next stage of the SLCP. [Method]Total income decision equations were built using unique panel dataset of 1 158 sample rural households from 15 counties in 5 provinces and 1 region to consider the marginal and the overall effects. The effect of the SLCP on rural households’ total income was estimated with Shapley value decomposition approach by GINI coefficient, Theil-L coefficient and Theil-T coefficient. [Result]The empirical results indicated that the overall effect and marginal effect of the SLCP on rural households’ total income were positive and significant at 0.01 statistical level. The contribution of the SLCP to GINI coefficients of both the overall effect and marginal effect of rural households’ income inequality had been rising, and then declining from 1999 to 2012. The contributions in 2008 of both the overall effect and marginal effect were the highest with 3.04% and 4.55%, respectively. Both Theil-L coefficient and Theil-T coefficient informed us the similar consequences.[Conclusion] The implementation of the SLCP increased the sample rural households’ income, and also caused their income disparity. Therefore, attentions should be paid to the impact of the ecological restoration programs on the income inequality of rural households. Multi-win policies should be designed to tackle the matter for ecological restoration to raise rural households’ income and reduce income equality.

Key words: the sloping land conversion program, income inequality, total income decision equation, the Shapley value decomposition

中图分类号:

F307.2

刘浩, 陈思焜, 张敏新, 刘璨. 退耕还林工程对农户收入不平等影响的测度与分析 ——基于总收入决定方程的Shapley值分解[J]. 林业科学, 2017, 53(5): 125-133.

Liu Hao, Chen Sikun, Zhang Minxin, Liu Can. Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Sloping Land Conversion Program on Rural Households' Income Inequality——Shapley Value Decomposition Approach for Total Income Decision Equation[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2017, 53(5): 125-133.

参考文献

国家林业局. 2016. 中国林业发展报告2015. 北京:中国林业出版社.
(State Forestry Administration. 2016. China forestry development report 2015. Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
国家统计局. 2014. 中国统计年鉴2013. 北京:中国统计出版社.
(China National Statistics Bureau. 2014. China statistics yearbook 2013. Beijing:China Statistics Press.\[in Chinese])
李实, 赵人伟, 张平. 1998. 中国经济改革中的收入分配变动. 管理世界, (1):43-56.
(Li S, Zhao R W, Zhang P. 1998. Changes of income distribution in China's economic reform. Management World, (1):43-56.[in Chinese])
刘璨. 2010. 林业重点工程对样本农户收入不平等影响的分解与分析. 经济理论与经济管理, (10):67-73.
(Liu C. 2010. The decomposition and analysis of the impact of forest priority programs (PFPs) on rural households' income inequality. Economics Theory and Economic Management, (10):67-73. [in Chinese])
刘璨, 张巍. 2006. 退耕还林政策选择对农户收入的影响——以我国京津风沙治理工程为例.经济学, 23(6):273-290.
(Liu C, Zhang W. 2006. Impacts of conversion of farmland to forestland program on household income:evidence from a sand control program in the vicinity of Beijing and Tianjin. China Economic Quarterly, 23(6):273-290.[in Chinese])
刘浩, 刘璨. 2012. 退耕还林工程对农民持久收入与消费影响的研究. 制度经济学研究, 35(1):16-47.
(Liu H, Liu C. 2012. An estimation of the effects of China's sloping land conversion program on farmers' permanent income and consumption. Research of Institutional Economics, 35(1):16-47.[in Chinese])
陶然, 徐志刚, 徐晋涛. 2004. 退耕还林, 粮食政策与可持续发展. 中国社会科学, (6):25-38.
(Tao R, Xu Z G, Xu J T. 2004. Grain for green project, grain policy, and sustainable development. Social Sciences in China, (6):25-38. [in Chinese])
田士超, 陆铭. 2007. 教育对地区内收入差距的贡献:来自上海微观数据的考察. 南方经济, (5):12-21.
(Tian S C, Lu M. 2007. Education's contribution to the regional income gap:micro data from Shanghai. South China Journal of Economics, (5):12-21.[in Chinese])
万广华. 2006. 经济发展与收入不平等:方法和证据. 上海:上海人民出版社.
(Wan G H. 2006. Economic development and income inequality. Shanghai:Shanghai People's Press.[in Chinese])
徐晋涛, 秦萍. 2004a. 退耕还林和天然林资源保护工程的社会经济影响案例研究. 北京:中国林业出版社.
(Xu J T, Qin P. 2004a. Case studies of the socioeconomic influence of the converting cropland to forest and grassland program and the nature forest protection program. Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.\[in Chinese])
徐晋涛, 陶然, 徐志刚. 2004b. 退耕还林:成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性——基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析. 经济学(季刊), 14(4):143-166.
(Xu J T, Tao R, Xu Z G. 2004b. Sloping land conversion program:cost-effectiveness,structural effect and economic sustainability. China Economic Quarterly, 14 (4):143-166. [in Chinese])
许庆, 田士超, 徐志刚, 等. 2008. 农地制度、土地细碎化与农民收入不平等. 经济研究, (2):83-92.
(Xu Q, Tian S C, Xu Z G, et al. 2008. Rural land system, land fragmentation and farmer's income inequality. Economic Research Journal, (2):83-92.[in Chinese])
支玲, 邵爱英. 2001. 退耕还林的实践与思考. 林业经济, (3):43-46.
(Zhi L, Shao A Y. 2001. The practice and thought of sloping land conversion program. Forestry Economics, (3):43-46.[in Chinese])
中国发展研究基金会. 2012. 转折期的中国收入分配. 北京:中国发展出版社.
(China Development Research Foundation. 2012. China's income distribution in transition period. Beijing:China Development Press.[in Chinese])
Angelsen S W. 2003. Exploring the forest-poverty link:key concepts, issues and research implications. Center for International Forestry Research.
Blackorby C, Donaldson D, Auersperg M. 1981. A new procedure for the measurement of inequality within and among population subgroups. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 14(4):665-685.
Bourguignon F, Bussolo M, de Silva L A P. 2008. The impact of macroeconomic policies on poverty and income distribution. World Bank, Palgrave, 85(271):490-491.
Cancian M, Reed D. 1998. Assessing the effects of wives earning on family income inequality. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1):73-79.
Chomitz K M. 2007. At loggerheads:agricultural expansion, poverty reduction, and environment in the tropical forests. World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA.
Devereux S, Hoddinott J. 1993. Fieldwork in developing countries. FAO Working Paper.
Fields G S, Yoo G. 2000. Falling labor income inequality in Korea's economic growth:patterns and underlying causes. Review of Income & Wealth, 46(2):139-159.
Gustafsson B, Li S, Sicular T, et al. 2008. Income inequality and spatial differences in China, 1988, 1995, and 2002//Uchimura H. Inequality and public policy in China. Cambridge University Press.
Hakim C. 2000. Research design:succesful designs for social economics research. Routledge.
Jenkins S P. 1995. Accounting for inequality trends:decomposition analyses for the UK 1971-86. Economica, 62(245):29-63.
Krugman P. 2007. The conscience of a liberal:reclaiming America from the right. Penguin Books, London, England.
Liu C, Lü J Z, Yin R S. 2010. An estimation of the effects of China's forestry programs on farmers' income. Environmental Management, 45:201-218.
Liu C, Mullan K, Liu H, et al. 2014a. The estimation of long term impacts of China's key priority forestry programs on rural household incomes. Journal of Forest Economics, 20(3):267-285.
Liu T J, Liu C, Liu H, et al. 2014b. Did the key priority forestry programs affect income inequality in rural China? Land Use Policy, 38:264-275.
Moute E N, Djemba I L, Kameni F J. 2015. Disparity in the sharing of family income in Cameroon:a Gini decomposition analysis based on the Shapley-value approach. International Journal of Educational Research and Reviews, 3(4):171-180.
Morduch J, Sicular T. 2002. Rethinking inequality decomposition, with evidence from rural China. Economic Journal, 112(476):93-106.
Obayelu O A. 2014. Spatial decomposition of poverty in rural Nigeria:shapley decomposition approach. Journal of Economic Development, 39(4):77-97.
Piketty T. 2014. Capital in the twenty-first century. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Rozelle S. 1996. Gradual reform and institutional development:the keys to success of China's rural reforms, reforming Asian socialism:the growth of market institutions. Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press.
Schultz T W. 1964. Transforming traditional agriculture. Yale University Press.
Sen A K. 1973. On economic inequality:the Radcliffe lectures, delivered in the University of Warwick, 1972. Tokyo:Clarendon Press.
Shorrocks F. 1999. Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis:a unified framework based on the Shapley value. University of Essex.
Stiglitz J E. 2012. The price of inequality:how today's divided society endangers our future. W.W. Norton & Company, New York, USA.
Uchida E, Xu J T, Rozelle S. 2005. Grain for green:cost-effectiveness and sustainability of China's conservation set-aside program. Land Economics, 81(2):247-264.
Uchida E, Xu J T, Xu Z G. 2007. Are the poor benefiting from China's land conservation program? Environment and Development Economics, 12(4):593-620.
Wan G H. 2004. Accounting for income inequality in rural China:a regression-based approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32:348-363.
Wan G H, Lu M, Chen Z. 2007. Globalization and regional income inequality:empirical evidence from within China. Review of Income and Wealth, 53(1):35-59.
Weyerhaeuser H, Wilkes A, Kahrl F. 2005. Local impacts and responses to regional forest conservation and rehabilitation programs in China's northwest Yunnan Province. Agricultural Systems, 85(3):234-253.
Wooldridge J M. 1999. Introductory econometrics:a modern approach. South-Western College Publishing.
Wunder S. 2001. Poverty alleviation and tropical forests-what scope for synergies? World Development, 29(11):1817-1833.
Yin R S, Liu C, Zhao M J, et al. 2014. The implementation and impacts of China's largest payment for ecosystem services program as revealed by longitudinal household data. Land Use Policy, 40:45-55.
Zhang Y, Wan G H. 2006. The impact of growth and inequality on rural poverty in China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 34(4):694-712.

[1]	赵娜, 孟平, 张劲松, 陆森, 程志庆. 华北低丘山地不同土地利用条件下的土壤呼吸比较[J]. 林业科学, 2014, 50(2): 1-7.
[2]	支玲;杨明;卿向阳;徐慧丽;刘燕;赵玉涛. 西部退耕还林工程可持续发展能力评价——以云南省鹤庆县、贵州省织金县和四川省朝天区为例[J]. 林业科学, 2010, 46(5): 161-168.
[3]	赵峰鞠洪波黄建文. 西昌地区实施退耕还林工程后的景观格局变化[J]. , 2006, 42(zk): 56-61.